got a jr massively losing work ethic and complaining about playing time...i obviously have no promises to him, will he leave? how likely is it he'll leave?

How much work ethic has he lost?  Maybe 80%, but that's just a guess without knowing how upset he really is or anything about his personality.

In general, when my guys have lost 3 or less work ethic they've stayed.  More than that and they usually go.  "Massively losing work ethic" sounds like 4+ to me, and if he's sent you at least one e-mail you're in danger of losing him; if he's sent you 2 and you don't get the minutes up you don't have much hope at all of keeping the guy around.  Dunno whether you really want to or not, but that's a totally separate issue.

Agree with dahs...if you've gotten the second e-mail (which it sounds like you have as I don't think the first one actually mentions leaving the program) and the work ethic has dropped 4+ points you've got a chance of the player walking. The question really is...since you're obviously not playing the kid that much, do you want to keep him? 

If he walks, you will get that scholarship money for recruiting (as opposed to not getting it if you were to cut the kid). I've never really fussed that much when a junior complains about PT. If he's not getting it, there's a reason for that and if you don't have a promise to the kid, then there's really not much down side to it. Unless you really feel you'll need the kid as a starter next year, I wouldn't sweat it.  

I had a guy on Tenn lose about 7-9 on WE last year as a junior (was getting about 9-10 mpg) and he stayed.

Then, on my TexAMCC team, we lost a junior who lost about 6-7 on WE as junior, but he didn't get to play in all the games AND only avg about 7 mpg when he did play.

I got angry emails all season on both...

The guy almost never leaves, of course in my experience I always wanted them to leave so I could have his scholarship and they wouldn't, so if you want him to stay he will probably go.

But no they don't just automatically leave or anything, I gave this guy like 3 minutes a game as as JR he complained all season but he was back for his Sr year.

in my experience, the guy has never left. i think in general outside of promise situations, you can do anything and still never have even 10% chance of losing the player. i think its well under 10% too.

Really?  I must have gotten really unlucky then.  I've had 3 or 4 guys leave out of 3 or 4 opportunities where I got the 2nd e-mail and they lost 4+ WE.

Dahs, I think you have gotten really unlucky. I've never had anybody transfer in this situation and everytime I wanted the guy to leave. But if you want to be 100% he doesn't leave, get him some minutes.

The only player I ever lost had decreased his WE by about 20.  I may be losing a player for the second time ever at the end of this season in Smith with UT-SA team.  I have a sophomore center who's lost 16 WE.  

I signed a junior transfer, ended up not playing him much (8 min a game), he lost 12 WE and left at the end of the season. I was glad to get the recruiting dollars.

If you do make a promise of minutes or a start, and then clearly break it, is it a 100% chance the guy leaves?

Posted by benwf on 4/25/2011 5:27:00 PM (view original):
If you do make a promise of minutes or a start, and then clearly break it, is it a 100% chance the guy leaves?

i think so, but it might only be 95% or so.

If you clearly break it (i.e. promise a guy a start and never start him the entire season... Or promise a kid 20 minutes a game and have him average under 10), then I'd say it's as close to a guarantee as you can get that he'll leave.  If you don't completely live up to your expectations but don't completely **** the kid off (start him 15 times and have his WE not dip that much ) then I'd say it's more likely 50-50 as to whether he'll stay or leave.

he's at 16 w/e lost, 5.5 mpg