I've got a kid who's killing it from the 3pt, but despite being +2 he's only taking about half of his shots from 3pt. I know LP/PER ratings play a role in shot selection, but I'm trying to think of other ways to increase his 3pt selection. He's currently at the SF position so I'm wondering if moving him to SG would help. Anyone have any experience with something like this?

i had a player on my CSU squad (linked below) who shot 86% of his shots from 3 while playing SF nearly every game. he was at +2 setting as well nearly every game, but has a big PER:LP discrepancy. i actually often intentionally hold back LP ratings, especially in guards with good PER like this, specifically to prevent them from taking more mid-range 2s. in my experience, taking a 30:99 LP:PER DI player up to 60:99 probably hurts their efficiency on average, though it can be useful for specific matchups like if you're playing a 3-2 zone opponent and want to drive the ball more.

in short, i don't think position makes as much of an impact as their LP:PER ratio

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=5459032

Thanks for the reply trail. I usually do the same with holding back LP if I want them to be more of a 3pt shooter. The player I'm talking about started with 25 LP when signed as a freshmen. He's now down to 19 LP in his sophomore year. Just won't shoot from the perimeter for some reason.

that's pretty low, he should be able to shoot more than 50% 3s. i am guessing a combo of small sample size and perhaps you faced a heavier-than-average amount of + defenses or 3-2 zones. lp/per split is definitely the main driver of the 3pt//2pt split, but position does matter a bit as well, i think. you could try him at the 2 if there's negligible cost to doing so, but i'd probably leave him at the 3 and wait for reversion to mean to bring him back up to the low to mid 60s. he doesn't have high enough per to get the really high % of 3s you see on some players.

Thanks for the advice gil, but unfortunately our season ended prematurely so I couldn't do any more research on this particular kid.

Do any of you think playing on a team with better passing helps increase 3ptar?

do any of you think being a higher usage% or taking a larger% of your teams shots helps increase 3ptar?

how about bh of the top scorer?

id guess no and no and maybe? But maybe not?

my issue is always just how complicated could this Tarek concept, seble modified code actually get. My answer is probably not very.

i 100% agree with ratio of per to lp having major impact on 3par.

Good question OR. It could be any or none of those things haha. But I agree that code from early 2000's couldn't be too complicated. I think we read into these things more than we really should.

I will say that the player in my example was the top usage guy by quite a bit. The season rolled so I don't have the exact numbers though.

Posted by mlitney on 11/11/2023 5:26:00 PM (view original):
Good question OR. It could be any or none of those things haha. But I agree that code from early 2000's couldn't be too complicated. I think we read into these things more than we really should.

I will say that the player in my example was the top usage guy by quite a bit. The season rolled so I don't have the exact numbers though.

I think you might have a team in the world that I have Colorado. I have a senior player who was much better as a junior, maybe soph,before his low post caught up to his per

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=4270&pid=5401460

If you had a 1200 player, 100 at everything, and set him the same usage, same 3pt setting, then simmed 500 games each at all 5 positions, do you think his shooting stats would be identical at each position?

I for one think pg and c would be unbelievably different. So I have no reason to believe sg, sf, pf also would not be different, but to a lesser degree.

exactly what would be different, we can debate, but the categories I’m thinking would vary are % of offense or usage % & 3par, maybe ftar too to name a few. Imo the pg would shoot more shots, take a higher % of his shots as 3’s, and get fouled less than the center.

I used to coach Utah in Rupp but dropped that world. We probably ran into each other on the recruiting trail quite a bit haha.

Pettigrew came back for his senior season. Through 11 games, 61% of his shot are 3pta. He's playing PG with a +2 on the 3pt setting. I'm maxing his LP because I have a ton of 3pt shooting on my roster this season and actually need his 2pt scoring for balance. He's already got 39 FTA on just 48 2pt shots so he's drawing a ton of fouls and still scoring efficiently when he's not taking 3's.

I agree with the positional differences you posted above. PG seems to naturally take more shots so I usually have to lower their distro compared to other positions. Also the same player at Center would take less 3pta and commit/draw more fouls than if they were playing guard. This would be an awesome experiment if anyone was bored and had a D3 team that didn't care about too much haha.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=5427663

interesting conversation. i agree with OR that there would definitely be differences across the position spectrum. the one part i probably see differently than the last couple posts is on free throw rate. its a bit complex because most free throws come off 2s, but the rate of getting fouled on 2s is significantly higher at the pg spot than the c spot, which is one of the bigger remaining items around offensive officiency that i don't agree should work how it does. the pg would probably take more 3s but im not sure that this is enough to offset the pg's higher ft rate from 2s, i could well see the pg drawing more fouls. if they were both on -2, i would expect the pg to take sigificantly more fta, both in absolute terms and in terms of fouled rate per possession.

foul drawing and assignment is a bit weird overall. the decision about if a player was fouled generally happens after a player has the ball, i think, but i don't think the player with the ball is the only player who might get fouled. i think there's a bit of a team decision going on there, with weightings towards the guy who has the ball, and his primary defender(s), and then some assigning of stats has to occur. with all the things that work in a similar way (team decisions, then individual stat assignment), there's room for disconnect between fouled stats on a player and actual contribution. on net, i look at team fouled stats as fully reflective of what happened in the sim, but i think player fouled stats do not precisely do so. pretty close, better than other stats i am more likely to talk about this subject on (like TOs committed), but i'm thinking there's some gap there. also, i don't think the fouled rate for a pg is the same in say fb and triangle.

Posted by oldresorter on 11/10/2023 4:41:00 PM (view original):
Do any of you think playing on a team with better passing helps increase 3ptar?

do any of you think being a higher usage% or taking a larger% of your teams shots helps increase 3ptar?

how about bh of the top scorer?

id guess no and no and maybe? But maybe not?

my issue is always just how complicated could this Tarek concept, seble modified code actually get. My answer is probably not very.

i 100% agree with ratio of per to lp having major impact on 3par.

i would probably go with no, no, and no.

i agree the complexity is probably not very. the passing impact on fg% is probably mostly a seble thing, and seems to have been done very simply.

complexity of code and systems is sometimes a tricky concept, though. a few good equations or functions can result in a surprisingly rich ultimate outcome. a handful of equations very well may be all it takes to explain the functioning of our entire universe, or to seed a new one.

I tend to agree at -2, that pg’s would shoot the most fts, might be 50% more lol.

But part of that, I’m thinking the pg woul shoot substantially more shots than 1200 sg, sf,pf,c .

at -2, imo they might only shoot 10 3’s all year long.


id assumed we were talking about set to +2, all 5/players and 20% usage, or equal, usage is how analytics measures % of shots in this game. A bit different, but same concept.

My Colorado team is rolling over tonight or tomorrow, but Henry is a great example of all of this imo.

he was a 92 per, 30 something lp frosh, who ended up 95/95 ish.

he played 95% sf all 4 yrs, 100% his sr yr. He was set to zero 3pt level his 2nd/3rd yr, his sr yr I switched him to +2, as his production at zero was horrific considering how good he was. He was much better at +2 his sr yr. so his lp jumped about 20 each season.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=4270&pid=5401460

Maybe I am the minority but I do think player position matters in 3fga.

The 4/5 will only take so many 3FGA. Granted they usually have higher LP, put I just can’t get my high perimeter 4’s to take the 3’s I really want. High PER 5’s are worse.

AS for the 1-2-3, I just think the 1 takes more shots than anyone. I think the 2 takes more shots than the 3 (all things being equal) but it’s not much.