Red's D3 Preview, S.58 - Page 5 - Rupp

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Posted by nachopuzzle on 5/15/2012 8:53:00 PM (view original):
All I can say is that I am nervouuuuuuusss about tonights game.

Three final fours in a row Nacho - congrats

5/16/2012 4:37 AM

nachopuzzle

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brian, thanks, and congratulations on your final four bid as well.

5/16/2012 7:12 AM

brianxavier

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Posted by spasticity on 5/15/2012 4:59:00 PM (view original):
Any team left at this point is good enough to beat J&W. Rose-Hulman has shot the ball lights out all season, .519/.475 and lived at the FT line. If our defense can hold them well below those averages, I think we win going away. If R-H has a good shooting night and gets us in some foul trouble, it could be a long night.

Wow, spas called this one. That was some crazy shooting by Rose-Hulman (57%) vs. J&W (40%). Clearly Nacho doesn't just sit around all day eating nachos... he's studying the most efficient way to distribute the ball. Everything else was very close in this game of the night: rebounds, turnovers, FTs, number of shots. J&W was also fairly monofocused on Frank Smith trying to score the ball, which was mostly effective (47.6%, including 5 threes and 9-9 from the FT line). However, this lead to the double-team effort by R-H. When double teamed successfully, Smith missed 3 shots, had one turnover, fouled once and made one shot. Congrats on a great season by J&W... once again the regular season favorite falls in the NT - illustrating IMO the balance of D3 Rupp these days. I am sure the sting is somewhat lessened as spas recently won a National Title in Iba D3.

The other games were not as exciting... Hardin-Simmons put on a clinic for offensive rebounding against Dickinison (22-10). Hardin also took 27 more shots than Dickinson, allowing them quite a bit of room for error on efficiency (Hardin took a season high 78 shots). Several Dickinson players left the court bruised and bleeding as well, due to the many fouls by Hardin (29 with starting PG fouling out for the 6th time this year - so I gather this is his role on the team). Nonetheless, this extremely aggressive pit bull mentality has proved quite effective this year in creating turnovers, shooting 3s with no conscience, and crashing the boards.

5/16/2012 9:38 AM

sublightd

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Shhh Brian....you are giving away all the H-S secrets. Gibbs is a prime example on how much one should weight defense in evaluating a player. He's got adequate ath and respectable speed. He's got respectable bh/pass and elite / dominating perimeter. The result is exactly what one would expect. He shoots over 50% from the field, and 45%+ from three. He's got a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio. Yet if I ran man to man, he'd be a huge liability. As it is, with the press double team, he still fouls quite a bit.

This was my first recruiting class since coming back to HS and I was in that learning curve trying to figure out who my local competition was for recruits. As one can see, I've not taken a guy with that low a D again. Even Ford on my team is high-high D and will hit 50 D rating. Some will look at Gibbs' stats and say "I'll take that any day of the week". In press and zone, you can hide him, so perhaps thats okay. I would never take him for a M2M team. Even then, taking even on guy with Gibb's D rating means you can't take another one. He fouls like crazy and having two on the team takes your squad from being good defensively with a weak link to being a generally weak defensive team. *Soapbox over*

I personally feel for JW's loss. I've had plently of teams that played really well, sometimes above their head and thought "this team is special" only to flame out. For H-S, I'm glad we made it this far just for the respect factor. Most people last season and this season were very lukewarm on us. One poster in this thread referred to us as "Howard- Simmons". I used that as pre-game pep for my electronic athletes.

I had hoped blapo21 would make it to the FF, just to make sure everyone knows the ASC plays good b-ball, but Millsaps is deserving. I don't like to jinx myself, so I won't give out a prediction for my FF game, but on the other side, I like Newbury's plethora of scorers over Millsaps. With competitive ath / spd / D ratings, I'm going with the squad with higher perimeter and LP.

5/16/2012 11:58 AM

brianxavier

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My track record vs. Great NE isn't that impressive... hoping I can pull the upset over Newbury. In the strange world of HD, I am actually favored by 3. My only faint hope is that Newbury lost to PSA (who lost to Millsaps).

5/16/2012 1:01 PM

carl3298

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Millsaps vs. Hardin-Simmons in the title game. My money is on Millsaps, they are better defensively (significantly so in the backcourt). Congrats to both coaches for getting to the game, and good luck tonight!

5/17/2012 10:07 AM

blapo21

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Be an ASC homer and having played both, I like Hardin-Simmons, his combination of SP/PER/REB is very intriguing at D3. No team can shoot like Hardin-Simmons as a team, that causes some real gameplanning issues. He shoots 3's at a higher % than most team shoot 2's, so basically he gets about 2.8 points for every make compared to his opponents 2.2 I like Millsaps and he took me to the woodshed, but I would be surprised is Hardin-Simmons doesn't bring the Ship to the ASC. GL to both teams, between the 2 of you, you handed me 3 or my 4 losses. Glad I decided to come back to Texas Lutheran, will be here for the long haul!

5/17/2012 10:54 AM

jack_duck

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Very much agree, blapo. The H-S model is definitely interesting. Shooting way over 40% from 3 for the season, he's only averaging 35% or so from long-range during the NT (presumably due to better defense by his opponents). But with his stellar rebounding it's still plenty. The only difference is, instead of beating people by 30 he's beating them by 10-15. Nothing to do about that except try to play even better defense. Interestingly, Brian has superb defense, just like the only team to hand a loss to H-S all season: J Dub. Should be an interesting game to watch tonight.

5/17/2012 3:18 PM

rednu

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Posted by sublightd on 5/16/2012 11:58:00 AM (view original):
Shhh Brian....you are giving away all the H-S secrets. Gibbs is a prime example on how much one should weight defense in evaluating a player. He's got adequate ath and respectable speed. He's got respectable bh/pass and elite / dominating perimeter. The result is exactly what one would expect. He shoots over 50% from the field, and 45%+ from three. He's got a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio. Yet if I ran man to man, he'd be a huge liability. As it is, with the press double team, he still fouls quite a bit.

This was my first recruiting class since coming back to HS and I was in that learning curve trying to figure out who my local competition was for recruits. As one can see, I've not taken a guy with that low a D again. Even Ford on my team is high-high D and will hit 50 D rating. Some will look at Gibbs' stats and say "I'll take that any day of the week". In press and zone, you can hide him, so perhaps thats okay. I would never take him for a M2M team. Even then, taking even on guy with Gibb's D rating means you can't take another one. He fouls like crazy and having two on the team takes your squad from being good defensively with a weak link to being a generally weak defensive team. *Soapbox over*

I personally feel for JW's loss. I've had plently of teams that played really well, sometimes above their head and thought "this team is special" only to flame out. For H-S, I'm glad we made it this far just for the respect factor. Most people last season and this season were very lukewarm on us. One poster in this thread referred to us as "Howard- Simmons". I used that as pre-game pep for my electronic athletes.

I had hoped blapo21 would make it to the FF, just to make sure everyone knows the ASC plays good b-ball, but Millsaps is deserving. I don't like to jinx myself, so I won't give out a prediction for my FF game, but on the other side, I like Newbury's plethora of scorers over Millsaps. With competitive ath / spd / D ratings, I'm going with the squad with higher perimeter and LP.

All I can offer in my defense is 1. I've called you Hardin-Simmons way more than I did Howard-Simmons, and 2. at least I didn't call you Richard Simmons ;)

Congrats on reaching the title game.

5/17/2012 5:02 PM

sublightd

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Lol no hard feelings Red, was just messing with you. I always find the concept funny to "inspire" my electronic athletes to do anything. GL to all next season.

5/17/2012 7:36 PM

brianxavier

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A well deserving camp --- congrats Hardin-Simmons, and Coach sublightd! I have some second guessing of my strategy to go uptempo, but with a 12 point loss and never really being in the game... well, I just don't think it would have mattered. It would have been nice from a fan's perspective to see J&W or Newbury take a shot at H-S, but the HD RNG gave me one more victory than I thought I deserved. Great season folks. The NT always has a few surprises on the way, and this year was no different. I think we all can agree that Hardin-Simmons is a worthy camp.

5/18/2012 7:08 AM

brianxavier

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One final thought on Hardin-Simmons... Sub commented on my league board that he didn't think his team would be able to win the NT (I think he was referring to before the season). Anyhow, I think it can be very hard to predict just how good a team will be.

Furthermore, it is interesting to me that I was able to do so well with 4 seniors (albeit they were all very, very good IMO) and 8 underclassmen. I think some of it was luck during the tournament (I really think I would have lost to Newbury 7/10 games, probably was a coin flip vs. Texas Lutheran... etc.).

That said, Hardin Simmons had some really low "defense" rated skill players - guys I probably wouldn't have even considered in recruiting. That doesn't mean they were bad defenders, but just really weak in that attribute. Obviously he made up for this with awesome rebound and tremendous scoring. But I enjoy seeing how different teams are designed and successful. This team was different than lasts years champion for sure....

Next year - once again - I have a feeling it will be "the field" vs. "the Great NE" for the title... "the field" has three in a row... we'll see if the Great NE can even it up in the best of 6.
GL next season folks and good hunting.
BX

5/18/2012 6:14 PM

unlikelyhero

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glad to be a part of rupp. taking over an incredibly talented illinois wesleyan team that will obviously be going through a lot of rebuilding in the coming years.

5/22/2012 7:39 PM

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