Posted by MikeT23 on 7/27/2015 4:02:00 PM (view original):
You oversimplification seems to suggest that every player approach each AB seeking a walk. Correct?
Theoretically that would be great, but it's not reasonable. I mean ideally, everybody would approach every plate appearance seeking a HR, but pitchers aren't exactly cooperating with that. If walks rose too high across the board, you'd see more pitchers compensate by throwing more strikes, and hitters would have to adjust by swinging more. You have to take what you're given. If a pitcher throws 4 balls in a plate appearance, then a perfect hitter will draw a walk. Every time. Because even a perfect hitter can't homer every time, and can't guarantee that a swing will put him on base. Pitchers have too much influence on the outcome of plate appearances.
I can see how there's room to debate greenlighting guys on 3-0 counts. I think there are some hitters who hit well enough on those pitches to justify letting them swing. But I don't see any reason to ever say any batter should walk less. At the end of the day, every hitter in the history of the sport has been more productive in plate appearances ending in walks than in plate appearances not ending in walks. And nobody does as well on balls out of the zone than they do on balls in the zone. The only way to really avoid walking is to swing at borderline and worse pitches. Those aren't productive pitches to be swinging for.