"In the worst case probability, the VH Team would have 64.99% and ONE High team would have 35.01% for getting the player. In the same probability calculation with the lowest points to be considered Very High (667 points), it would be 60% to the leader and 40% to the VH team.

What that means is .. there is not a lot of difference in probability between a High and a Very High."

Hughes - again lets have this talk. 60% vs 40% EFFORT is not the same as a 60-40% chance of signing.
The engine applies a leader bonus so that the 60% EFFORT team actually has a ~70% chance of signing the recruit. The leader bonuses ARE not linear. So, THER IS a big difference in probability between a VH team and a H team signing a recruit.

Posted by hughesjr on 10/14/2016 12:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 12:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kubasnack on 10/14/2016 9:25:00 AM (view original):
The difference between H and VH is minimal. Seble said he set it up to show you who has been putting more effort in recently so you would be aware if Snipping was going on. He said not to worry and that if you are H/VH, you have a chance to sign the recruit. With 2 teams in, its basically a coin flip, depending on the effort it could be 55% to 45%. People just need to quit looking H/VH as anything but an indicator of who has been putting more effort in recently. I have found it is not reflective of total effort and preferences also affect a recruits decision.

You are so misinformed.

The odds of a H signing to a school are less than 35% (in fact, the average would be in the 25-35% range). Go back into BETA and reread the threads on chances of signing to understand the mechanics of both the original % and the lead team bonus.

Thats not true .. unless they are in a battle with more than two teams.

If they are below 35% of the effort of the max team, they have 0% chance to sign.

If there are 3 or more teams .. then the percentages change. Because if you have 3 teams, each of their points add to the total. But in that case, all the team still have to be within 35% of the team with the MAX effort as well. That would put a High at close to 25% chance to sign.

If there were 3 Highs and 1 VH though, the chance for each of the highs would be closer to 15% though

You keep leaving out the % chance to sign which is NOT the effort %.
Your 35% number above is an "effort" %, NOT a chance to sign %.
A team at high with 35% effort actually only has about 25% chance to sign. There are a few posts from Seble where he explained this bonus late in BETA.
Do you not remember those?

Posted by noleaniml on 10/14/2016 12:13:00 PM (view original):
Hughes, wouldn't that be 66.7% effort and 53.8% effort? I guess I need a little more explanation and I missing something. Also- how did you come to these conclusions? I was under the assumptions that the cutoffs for VH and H much closer.

The cut offs are based on effort in relation to the Max Efforted team. They are designed to give the VH team a minimum of 40% and the 35% probability to sign.

Therefore the formula for the cutoff would be:

(Max/(1 - Probability))-Max
or

(1000/(1-0.40))-1000 = 667

So he put in 67% of the effort of the other team .. which gives him 667/1667 = 40% signing probability minimum for a Very High team (adn 60% for the leader).

Same calculation for High team (1000/(1-0.35))-1000 = 538. 538/1538 would be 35% signing probability.

Those are just the minimal values to get into each category assuming 1000 as effort of the max team for a comparison. Those were defined as the cutoff points (40% prob for VH, 35% for H .. they could make them closer if they wanted 45% and 40%, for instance)

If you have more than one VH and more than 1 H .. then when you calculate probability, you need to add all their points together ..

So if there are 2 VH teams (1 at 1000 points, one between 667 and 1000 points) and 3 High teams (between 538 and 666 points) then you would do the calc like this. I'll assume 1000 and 850 for the VH's .. and 650, 600, 550 for the Highs. Again, these would be the final effort of each team that had all the correction factors for prestige and preference already applied).

So the probability calc would be:

1000+850+650+600+550= 3650 points (between 2 VH and 3 H)

And the Probabilities would be:

1000/3650 = 27.4%

850/3650 = 23.2%

650/3650 = 17.8%

600/3650 = 16.4

550/3650 = 15.1%

Then they decided to do something to make the leader more prominent .. not idea of that exact calc.

But those are the basic calcs there

Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 12:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/14/2016 12:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 12:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kubasnack on 10/14/2016 9:25:00 AM (view original):
The difference between H and VH is minimal. Seble said he set it up to show you who has been putting more effort in recently so you would be aware if Snipping was going on. He said not to worry and that if you are H/VH, you have a chance to sign the recruit. With 2 teams in, its basically a coin flip, depending on the effort it could be 55% to 45%. People just need to quit looking H/VH as anything but an indicator of who has been putting more effort in recently. I have found it is not reflective of total effort and preferences also affect a recruits decision.

You are so misinformed.

The odds of a H signing to a school are less than 35% (in fact, the average would be in the 25-35% range). Go back into BETA and reread the threads on chances of signing to understand the mechanics of both the original % and the lead team bonus.

Thats not true .. unless they are in a battle with more than two teams.

If they are below 35% of the effort of the max team, they have 0% chance to sign.

If there are 3 or more teams .. then the percentages change. Because if you have 3 teams, each of their points add to the total. But in that case, all the team still have to be within 35% of the team with the MAX effort as well. That would put a High at close to 25% chance to sign.

If there were 3 Highs and 1 VH though, the chance for each of the highs would be closer to 15% though

You keep leaving out the % chance to sign which is NOT the effort %.
Your 35% number above is an "effort" %, NOT a chance to sign %.
A team at high with 35% effort actually only has about 25% chance to sign. There are a few posts from Seble where he explained this bonus late in BETA.
Do you not remember those?

Yes .. 35% chance to sign is about 53.8% of effort in a two way race .. and that is minimal value of a High.

40% chance to sign is 66.7% effort in a two way race. That is the minimal value to be in Very High.

Then yes .. they do some factor at the end for the leader. I would need several example of the final results to figure out that factor.

"The cut offs are based on effort in relation to the Max Efforted team. They are designed to give the VH team a minimum of 40% and the 35% probability to sign." from hughes

Agree 100% - so the MAXIMUM chance a High team has to sign a recruit is 35%. What do you believe the minimum is? (at what point does the team drop to moderate?)


(stats are updated on 1st page)

60% of recruits are signing Very High vs no competition? Sounds like you guys are burying the actual lead story about the new HD that was all about battles and competition...

I am getting a head ache reading this but I can conclude is that you should not expect to sign the recruit 9 out of 10 times when you are the VH team. It's closer to a coin flip.

Thanks hughes... somehow I was not taking into account that the difference between one team having 60% of the effort of a single other team is 40% of the TOTAL EFFORT. I simply was forgetting to add both teams effort back into the total effort. Anyway- thanks for the explanation.

This is a serious question, not meant to derail the thread, but I keep hearing that HD 3.0 is going to bring in new users because it's easier to understand. I keep hearing that it takes the "formulas" away from the elites.

Can you guys go back and read this thread and tell me in what way is this easier for the average new guy to understand? We have gone from 10 > 7 (add in prestige and distance modifiers) to needing to know statistics just to understand what is happening. Instead of taking things away from the formula people, 3.0 lends itself to a formula (statistical) more than ever. The only difference is there's some randomness added now.

Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 1:04:00 PM (view original):
"The cut offs are based on effort in relation to the Max Efforted team. They are designed to give the VH team a minimum of 40% and the 35% probability to sign." from hughes

Agree 100% - so the MAXIMUM chance a High team has to sign a recruit is 35%. What do you believe the minimum is? (at what point does the team drop to moderate?)


(stats are updated on 1st page)

Not really .. that is the MINIMUM a High team has in two team race and the MINIMUM cutoff in relation to the Max Effort team.

The MAX probability would be 1 point less than the VH cut off point .. and that is one point less than 40% Probability. So a High (in a two person race) would be 35.01% to 39.99% and a VH would be 40% to 50% (in a two person race). and those percentages of the MAX effort is the cut off point (like I calculated before).

Then everyone, compared individually to max effort is either VH or H.

Then, as I did in the example, you add the total points of all highs and very highs and do the probability calculation. Then they make the leader adjustment.

For purposes of this thread please just talk in terms of % chance to sign a recruit.
hughes in your opinion, in a two team battle, what is the highest and lowest % chance a High team has to sign a recruit? ( I keep thinking we are on the same page but are talking apples and oranges)

Posted by poncho0091 on 10/14/2016 1:33:00 PM (view original):
This is a serious question, not meant to derail the thread, but I keep hearing that HD 3.0 is going to bring in new users because it's easier to understand. I keep hearing that it takes the "formulas" away from the elites.

Can you guys go back and read this thread and tell me in what way is this easier for the average new guy to understand? We have gone from 10 > 7 (add in prestige and distance modifiers) to needing to know statistics just to understand what is happening. Instead of taking things away from the formula people, 3.0 lends itself to a formula (statistical) more than ever. The only difference is there's some randomness added now.

right .. and it is randomness (or probability) that makes it fair. 50.00001% effort does not always win and teams that expend corrected effort have a chance with every recruit they qualify for. As they should have been doign it forever.

Same kind of calculation happens for every play in every game. That is how they decide if it is a made shot, missed shot, steal, block, unforced turnover, foul, etc. The create a corrected lookup table for each event and a final table .. do the RNG, pick the result based on probability.

Posted by kubasnack on 10/14/2016 1:14:00 PM (view original):
I am getting a head ache reading this but I can conclude is that you should not expect to sign the recruit 9 out of 10 times when you are the VH team. It's closer to a coin flip.

Yes but the sample size is still small. But in head to head the highs have actually out signed the very highs.

Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):
For purposes of this thread please just talk in terms of % chance to sign a recruit.
hughes in your opinion, in a two team battle, what is the highest and lowest % chance a High team has to sign a recruit? ( I keep thinking we are on the same page but are talking apples and oranges)

In a two team battle .. the Minimum for a High (BEFORE CORRECTION at the END for LEADER) is 35.01% .. if they are at 65/35 then they are at 100/0.

For Very High, that Minimum is 40%.

That means High is 35.01% to 39.99% probability in two team VH-H battle.

A VH team is 40% to 49.99% (before correction for leader).

But you can't keep leaving out the adjustment for the leader because that's what the ultimate calculation is based on. I've seen you do that on several posts and it gives readers a misrepresentation of whad the true singing odds are.
In a two team battles VH vs H, a 59-41% effort lead is REALLY a ~69% chance for the VH team to sign.