Posted by ebel331 on 3/30/2017 3:07:00 PM (view original):
Not sure how much it matters but Florida State losing didn't help California

My team is great at messing something up late

Lot of deserving teams but if I win (big IF) and don't make the NC (most likely) that would be sad.

one of those undefeated teams will find a way to get in

Posted by jasonfreeman on 3/30/2017 3:48:00 PM (view original):
Lot of deserving teams but if I win (big IF) and don't make the NC (most likely) that would be sad.

Yah I think the problem is the way it calculates SOS... it's has Cali ranked 55th and obviously it's a much tougher schedule than that but all the simAI games bring it down. And last season I forget what Houstons SOS was exactly but it was too high and got Houston in NC game.

Id guess probably the issue is it doesn't have an adjustment to account for simai teams which could be a problem when using a real-world formula.

yes that's the problem. you're better off playing two #30 ranked teams than a #5 and a #100. both in terms of SOS and chances of winning.

Posted by ebel331 on 3/30/2017 3:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jasonfreeman on 3/30/2017 3:48:00 PM (view original):
Lot of deserving teams but if I win (big IF) and don't make the NC (most likely) that would be sad.

Yah I think the problem is the way it calculates SOS... it's has Cali ranked 55th and obviously it's a much tougher schedule than that but all the simAI games bring it down. And last season I forget what Houstons SOS was exactly but it was too high and got Houston in NC game.

Id guess probably the issue is it doesn't have an adjustment to account for simai teams which could be a problem when using a real-world formula.

Strength of Schedule calculations will always be "ignorant" of the coach of the opposition - in WIS and in real life. And that's the way you want it. SoS should only be calculated based on the record of your opponents and the record of your opponents' opponents. You can weight these with varying weights, but I see no reasonable way to account for coach within such a calculation.

Besides, SimAI will generally have a worse record than the same team with a human coach. So, really, the coaching is taken into effect.

Blasted GT and his logic and reasoning lol

Here is what I'll predict (and be wrong):

If Colorado and USC both win, they play each other in NC.
If Colorado and USC both lose, Houston plays OK.
If USC wins and Colorado loses I'd say USC vs. a coin flip of Houston/OK.
If USC loses and Colorado wins, Colorado vs. a coin flip of Houston/OK.

OK has 1.25 points vs. Houston's 2.46 points. I'm not sure if Houston winning tomorrow can move up enough to pass OK.

I'd guess that Miami and California have very long odds (but I do remember Nebraska making the NC a few seasons ago when it was a huge shock).
Texas could be the biggest loser especially if they win tomorrow and go 3-0 vs top 2 teams. I don't see how they move up 5 spots.

Undefeated CC winners tend to get a sizeable boost in the final rankings. It can make things very interesting.

Posted by blitziscomin on 3/30/2017 7:02:00 PM (view original):
Here is what I'll predict (and be wrong):

If Colorado and USC both win, they play each other in NC.
If Colorado and USC both lose, Houston plays OK.
If USC wins and Colorado loses I'd say USC vs. a coin flip of Houston/OK.
If USC loses and Colorado wins, Colorado vs. a coin flip of Houston/OK.

OK has 1.25 points vs. Houston's 2.46 points. I'm not sure if Houston winning tomorrow can move up enough to pass OK.

I'd guess that Miami and California have very long odds (but I do remember Nebraska making the NC a few seasons ago when it was a huge shock).
Texas could be the biggest loser especially if they win tomorrow and go 3-0 vs top 2 teams. I don't see how they move up 5 spots.

Option two, Houston has to win. What are you saying? Should I fold up and run? Dude.

Being an undefeated CC winner didn't help Oklahoma in season 127....lol.

Posted by blitziscomin on 3/30/2017 7:18:00 PM (view original):
Being an undefeated CC winner didn't help Oklahoma in season 127....lol.

Looks like you might've had a really low SoS that season?

Certainly I don't intend to imply that undefeated CC winners all jump straight to the front of the line. The boost, while potentially substantial, can only overcome so much WIS Rating "deficiency". In my experience, if you're over 5.00 going into the CC games, you're not getting into the NC game; over 4.00 and you're a longshot; over 3.00 typically needs a little extra help; anything under 3.00 is in-play. (These are, of course, rules of thumb. No warranty offered, either stated or implied.)

Just for more fun you'll have to throw in relative ratings to the other teams. For example under 3.00 is looking a lot better when the top team is > 1 and not a .02.

Winner of Colorado/Oklahoma is obviously in.

For the other spot, I would guess USC gets in if they win. If USC loses Houston probably gets in over California (assuming both win), which would be a shame because Houston played 1 Top 25 team and Cal will have played 3. Being in the Pac-10 with all those SIMs is a killer.

That said, props to Ebel for doing a great job scheduling.

except Colorado plays Texas and Oklahoma sits at home waiting to see what'll happen