Posted by z32fanatic on 5/9/2017 7:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by z32fanatic on 5/6/2017 2:39:00 PM (view original):
Here's an ongoing look at the current job security statuses at D1, as I did last season as well:
In Jeopardy:
1. Missouri- Plays Syracuse (coached by yours truly) in a L2 bowl, which will make or break this job.
2. Baylor- Excellent season, currently ranked #14, playing in a L4 bowl. He should go up to LTNJ with a loss, and Secure if he wins.
3. Connecticut- 3-10 on the season so this job will be open. One of the better non-elite jobs in the game, so this is a significant opening.
4. Washington- Made a L3 bowl but has the misfortune of playing Notre Dame. If Washington wins they will move up to LTNJ or Secure, if they lose no telling what happens.
Little to No Jeopardy:
North Carolina- Won a L1 bowl. Will probably stay at LTNJ I would think.
Kansas St.- Didn't make a bowl game, will drop to In Jeopardy.
Temple- Won a L1 bowl, hard to say if they will improve status or stay the same. Needs to improve scheduling (elites + SIMs = oops!) to stick around longterm.
West Virginia- Really good team that isn't scared to schedule elites and hang with them. Squeaked into a L3 bowl and was rewarded by drawing Florida. Will probably drop in status if they lose, will certainly improve if they win.
Notre Dame- In a L3 bowl vs. Washington as previously mentioned. Had the misfortune of playing 6 SIMs in conference that kills the SOS, but also lost to Stanford and WVU. They beat their bitter rival PSU this season though, so I think CFBFan would deem this season a success. Should drop to In Jeopardy with a loss, probably improve with a win?
Wisconsin- Playing in a L2 bowl, should drop if they lose, maintain or improve if they win.
Minnesota- Got screwed last season winning a L3 and only maintaining status. This year gets a L2 matchup with fellow LTNJ Ole Miss.
Arizona- Lost their L1 bowl, so should drop to In Jeopardy.
Ole Miss- Playing Minnesota in a L2 bowl as previously mentioned. Loser drops to In Jeopardy, winner might move up to Secure.
Georgia- Having a good season, currently ranked #25. Playing Colorado St. in a L3 bowl. Losing that game might drop them to In Jeopardy, hard to say though.
High Stakes Games:
Washington (In Jeopardy) vs. Notre Dame (LTNJ)
Minnesota (LTNJ) vs. Ole Miss (LTNJ)
Update
In Jeopardy:
Missouri- Won, should maintain or improve
Baylor- Lost, but should finish in the top 20 so should improve status
UConn- no change
Washington- Lost. This is probably the most up in the air status, no clue if they will maintain or not. My guess is fired, but he should be able to get the job back during the offseason even if he does get fired, as Washington is a tough place to play.
LTNJ:
North Carolina- Won. Not sure if they move up here, as Genuvar mentioned, if it's like last season they will go up to Secure.
Kansas St.- No change.
Temple- Won. Same situation as UNC, could move up, who knows.
Notre Dame- Won their L3 bowl, should move up to Secure, but may be different results because they're an elite.
West Virginia- Big win over Florida in their L3 bowl. Should move up to Secure, possibly Very Secure because they will finish Top 25 as well. Either way, things are looking up for Grunt.
Wisconsin- Beat Duke, same situation as UNC/Temple.
Minnesota- Won their L2 bowl, deserves to move up to Secure after not improving last season with a bowl win.
Arizona- Lost their L1 so should drop to In Jeopardy.
Ole Miss- Lost their L2 so will probably drop to In Jeopardy.
Georgia- Lost their L3, not sure what will happen here but will probably drop to In Jeopardy.
Predictions for statuses going into S122
Fired: UConn; Washington
In Jeopardy: Kansas St.; Missouri; Arizona; Ole Miss; Georgia
LTNJ: Baylor
Secure: North Carolina; Temple; Notre Dame; WVU; Wisconsin; Minnesota
Final Results and Statuses going into S122
Fired: UConn; Washington
In Jeopardy: Kansas St; Arizona; Ole Miss; Georgia
LTNJ: Missouri; North Carolina; Temple; Notre Dame; West Virginia; Wisconsin; Minnesota; Cincinnati; Duke; Auburn
Secure+: Baylor
My initial reaction is that WVU got screwed here, winning a L3 bowl and finishing Top 25 yet staying at LTNJ. Minnesota staying at LTNJ with back to back bowl wins was also surprising and unfair honestly. It also seems that all the L1 and L2 LTNJ coaches (UNC/Temple/Wisconsin/Minnesota) didn't move up with a bowl win, so that's something to keep in mind going into next season.
One interesting contrast on just how screwed Minnesota has gotten the last 2 seasons, here is a comparison between Colorado St. and Minnesota:
Colorado St:
S120 Won L3 Bowl, finished #28
S121 Won L3 Bowl, finished #31
Minnesota:
S120 Won L3 Bowl, finished #26
S121 Won L2 Bowl, finished #33
During that time, Colorado St. went from In Jeopardy all the way to Very Secure, while Minnesota stayed at LTNJ the entire time. Not sure how that's possible...