Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 6:05:00 PM (view original):
Suppose, just suppose it's your polling that's fiction. Do you hold them accountable, or just chalk it up to Trump voters are loony? How would you feel if for whatever the reason they simply inflate the numbers, trying to suppress Republican voters? Is that misleading, or just gamesmanship?

I guess what I want to know is do you want the media to put out factual material, or just be opinion writers?

This whole thing is pure bonkers, a martyr complex in search of persecution.

What do you mean hold them accountable, they get paid to be accurate. If they’re not accurate, they’re not gonna get hired again.

Not sure where the Trump voters loony part comes in.

Again, only one company inflates numbers and it’s not pro-democrat.

Tang asked but I will too, how does a poll suppress votes?

A poll by definition is not opinion. It’s a measurement.

Campaigns and national committees rely on these polls to make million dollar decisions.

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 6:28:00 PM (view original):
I don't share BL's faith in the polling being unbiased. They've headhunted Trump for four years. They won't play fair now. We're 24 hours away from this unfolding.

Soon the holidays will be upon us. I wish each and all happiness and good health. God Bless America

Ah, so you won't answer the question.

Well, the invitation remains open. Someone should probably explain why polls that are "inflated" for Biden help Democrats or hurt Trump. Voter suppression?

Posted by cccp1014 on 11/2/2020 6:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2020 6:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cccp1014 on 11/2/2020 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2020 4:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cccp1014 on 11/2/2020 3:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2020 11:01:00 AM (view original):
That was one poll taken two weeks before the election, and before the Comey thing hurt Clinton right before the election. ******* dumbass.

Way to be civil. Maybe you should loot a store or two and bad mouth some police officers to really get your point across.

All3 is genuinely one of the dumbest people I have ever interacted with, online or not. What is there to be civil with all3? He's citing *one* poll from two weeks before the election, when Clinton was up by more than she was on election day, and claiming that somehow makes his point.

As for looting, I'm not sure what the point (or joke) was because I never supported it. Nice meme, I guess. Bit of a reach.

Here I thought that tone policing was something that only leftists complain about. Who would've known. :)

Doesn't mean you cannot be civil...per Trafalgar...the only poll that Predicted a Trump victory in 2016 I believe. I don't believe in the accuracy of polls post 2016 but for your viewing pleasure.

PA Nov 2, 2020 Presidential Poll
TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 47.8%
Joe Biden 45.9%
Jo Jorgensen 1.4%
Someone Else 1.2%
Undecided 3.7%

MI Nov 1, 2020 Presidential Poll
TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.3%
Joe Biden 45.8%
Jo Jorgensen 1.7%
Someone Else 1.3%
Undecided 3.0%

AZ Oct 2020 Presidential Poll
TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.9%
Joe Biden 46.4%
Jo Jorgensen 2.3%
Someone Else 1.7%
Undecided 0.7%



NC Oct 31, 2020 Presidential Poll
TOTALS (with leans)
Donald Trump 48.6%
Joe Biden 46.5%
Jo Jorgensen 2.6%
Someone Else 1.4%
Undecided 1.0%


OH Nov 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 49.2%
Joe Biden 44.4%
Jo Jorgensen 2.1%
Someone Else 1.7%
Undecided 2.6%

FL Sept 2020 Presidential Poll
Donald Trump 48.7%
Joe Biden 45.6%
Jo Jorgensen 2.2%
Another Party Candidate 1.3%
Undecided 2.3%

Trafalgar admits that they skew polls to give a Republican advantage, and they were more off in 2018 than any other pollster.

Sure, I could be civil while engaging with all3, but why should I?

Why shouldn't you? Civility is important.

I see civility as a moral neutral. It's only good if it accomplishes something. Usually, civility improves my ability to communicate with others. I have not seen that with all3. So why should I be civil towards him?

Posted by Uofa2 on 11/2/2020 6:45:00 PM (view original):
Calls for civility from Trump supporters never cease to amaze me.

especially Trump supporters who I have seen be far from civil in these very forums....

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 6:28:00 PM (view original):
I don't share BL's faith in the polling being unbiased. They've headhunted Trump for four years. They won't play fair now. We're 24 hours away from this unfolding.

Soon the holidays will be upon us. I wish each and all happiness and good health. God Bless America

Wrong polling doesn’t actually help anyone win. It MIGHT make the pollster some money if they can convince the right people to buy their info. But there are so many non-partisan polls (Fox News Poll, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, etc.) that that show Biden with a big lead that it reasonable to believe that’s the case.

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 6:16:00 PM (view original):
FWIW realclearpolitics.com has Trump within the margin of error in several swing states. Those are polling averages, including those who have Biden up double digits in Michigan. Trump is ahead in NC and OH

Right. It also shows Biden within the margin in Texas. Margins go both ways.

Voter suppression is a strategy used to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting. It is distinguished from political campaigning in that campaigning attempts to change likely voting behavior by changing the opinions of potential voters through persuasion and organization, activating otherwise inactive voters, or registering new supporters. Voter suppression, instead, attempts to reduce the number of voters who might vote against a candidate or proposition.

What might win it for Trump is new voter registration, especially in FL, PA and WI. Or i could be wrong...

Posted by bad_luck on 11/2/2020 8:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 6:16:00 PM (view original):
FWIW realclearpolitics.com has Trump within the margin of error in several swing states. Those are polling averages, including those who have Biden up double digits in Michigan. Trump is ahead in NC and OH

Right. It also shows Biden within the margin in Texas. Margins go both ways.

Yes, Democrats have made big gains in Texas. Kudos.

Florida Voter Registration Edge:

2008: Dem edge over Rep: 694,147
Result: Obama wins by 236,148

2012: Dem edge: 558,272
Result: Obama wins by 74,309

2016: Dem edge: 330,428
Result: Trump wins by 112,991

2020: Dem edge as of 10/9: 136,294
Result: ??


North Carolina Voter Data

2008 Dem Voter edge over Rep: 864,253
Obama win: 0.32%

2012 D edge: 818,443
Romney win: 2.04% (+2.36% for Rep from 08)

2016 D edge: 646,246
Trump win: 3.66% (+1.62% for R from 12)

2020 D edge: 398,953 (Rep close gap by 247,293 from '16)
Result: ??

Pennsylvania VOTER REGISTRATION

Trump won PA by 44,292 in 2016.

Since 2016, Republicans have closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 (549,547 since 2008). This is significant.

Tidbit...most of the sand used in fracking comes from Wisconsin.

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):
Voter suppression is a strategy used to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting. It is distinguished from political campaigning in that campaigning attempts to change likely voting behavior by changing the opinions of potential voters through persuasion and organization, activating otherwise inactive voters, or registering new supporters. Voter suppression, instead, attempts to reduce the number of voters who might vote against a candidate or proposition.

We all understand what voter suppression is. How does releasing pro-Democrat polls discourage or prevent Republicans from voting?

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 9:10:00 PM (view original):
Florida Voter Registration Edge:

2008: Dem edge over Rep: 694,147
Result: Obama wins by 236,148

2012: Dem edge: 558,272
Result: Obama wins by 74,309

2016: Dem edge: 330,428
Result: Trump wins by 112,991

2020: Dem edge as of 10/9: 136,294
Result: ??


North Carolina Voter Data

2008 Dem Voter edge over Rep: 864,253
Obama win: 0.32%

2012 D edge: 818,443
Romney win: 2.04% (+2.36% for Rep from 08)

2016 D edge: 646,246
Trump win: 3.66% (+1.62% for R from 12)

2020 D edge: 398,953 (Rep close gap by 247,293 from '16)
Result: ??

Pennsylvania VOTER REGISTRATION

Trump won PA by 44,292 in 2016.

Since 2016, Republicans have closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 (549,547 since 2008). This is significant.

This just shows me that voter registration is only marginally linked to success. The Dems had the edge by hundreds of thousands of votes in 16, so why didn't they win?

I'm a registered Republican. It's because only Republican primaries are competitive in Kansas.

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2020 9:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):
Voter suppression is a strategy used to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting. It is distinguished from political campaigning in that campaigning attempts to change likely voting behavior by changing the opinions of potential voters through persuasion and organization, activating otherwise inactive voters, or registering new supporters. Voter suppression, instead, attempts to reduce the number of voters who might vote against a candidate or proposition.

We all understand what voter suppression is. How does releasing pro-Democrat polls discourage or prevent Republicans from voting?

It may not, in fact it may have a reverse effect. Trump supporters are rabid. Their enthusiasm numbers are through the roof. You should never poke a bear...


Dino from a few weeks ago(I saved it)

It is going to be an 8 point romp for Biden.
the house will get 10 - 12 new dems.
the senate will be 55 blue.

it is the continuation of 2018 on Covid.
i have converted 2 people to the cause.

the people that I know that will vote for trump think he is a fruitcake and a bum but like the tax cut..that’s the only thing he offers them but they are selfish.

there are plenty of right to center people or middle people who voted trump in 16 and think he is bullshit for them now and are peeling off.

it won’t be close.
hillary with nothing but negatives won popular by 2 points.
this one is a baked cake.
joe gets his solid share of love but massive like.
he is clearly the “attractive “ candidate and that candidate when there is space always wins.
trump by now has lost his shine and is the ugly candidate.
he will lose.

Posted by DoctorKz on 11/2/2020 8:30:00 PM (view original):
Voter suppression is a strategy used to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing specific groups of people from voting. It is distinguished from political campaigning in that campaigning attempts to change likely voting behavior by changing the opinions of potential voters through persuasion and organization, activating otherwise inactive voters, or registering new supporters. Voter suppression, instead, attempts to reduce the number of voters who might vote against a candidate or proposition.

Right. Like filing lawsuit after lawsuit trying to prevent states from counting ballots that were legally cast.

That’s not the strategy of a campaign that thinks it will win. That’s a campaign that wants the lowest turnout possible.