Round 1 Sound Off, 2022 Topic

I'll donate some mop games early, ala Griz...
5/31/2022 12:46 PM
People overestimate the amount of Ip needed, especially at this cap. Even with the DH (especially), at $70m the quality of offense not going to require as many innings as people think imo. I still feel my 1276 is too many
5/31/2022 1:04 PM
No shot.
5/31/2022 4:18 PM
There is always a risk of a pitching fatigue death spiral, no matter how many innings you draft. Once you get past a certain threshold the probability of it gets very close to zero, but it is still possible to have every game be 20+ innings. Obviously the probability of this is extremely low, but it is not zero.

When you get below 1300 (assuming you don't have restrictions like super low cap, everyone in Petco, etc.), the probability starts getting a lot higher than zero. You're a few early extra inning marathons or ace shellackings away from serious trouble. You might be able to navigate your way out of it eventually by running mop-ups into the ground, but if the mop-up starts the game below 90% or so then you run the risk of an early injury and the spiral getting out of control quickly.

Seems to me like people are way too willing to play with fire. Is the slight improvement in quality of your pitchers worth even a 10% chance of finishing near the bottom of the tournament? I would say not even close, especially since the owners who have dominated this tournament in recent years have never in my experience flirted with super short innings. Not to mention, for this $70m in particular, one of the things fatigued pitchers start doing is giving up home runs at a much higher rate than usual, and that percent multiplier is gonna hurt a lot more in the super HR friendly modern era. Time will tell but I personally think it's a terrible idea.
5/31/2022 4:46 PM
First session I was 5-1, second session 1-5. Can you say consistency? I like how you say consistency!
5/31/2022 5:40 PM
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I've successfully managed $70M w/o a DH with 1,150. I may need to use pitchers at 93-95% occasionally, but I'm cautiously optimistic that this won't implode. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, and you can tell me I told you so...my target was 1,250, FWIW...
5/31/2022 8:40 PM
Here is the staff in question, judge for yourself

Actual Statistics (projected to a 162 game season)
Player SN T GP GS W L SV IP BFP H ER HR BB SO OAV WHIP ERA HBP WP BK
Mikolas, Miles 2018 R 32 32 18 4 0 200.7 808 186 63 16 29 146 .245 1.07 2.83 7 2 0
Severino, Luis 2018 R 32 32 19 8 0 191.3 780 173 72 19 46 220 .238 1.14 3.39 5 8 0
Ryu, Hyun-Jin 2019 L 29 29 14 5 0 182.7 723 160 47 17 24 163 .234 1.01 2.32 4 0 0
Hendricks, Kyle 2019 R 30 30 11 10 0 177.0 730 168 68 19 32 150 .249 1.13 3.46 9 1 0
Kershaw, Clayton 2018 L 26 26 9 5 0 160.0 646 138 49 17 29 154 .226 1.04 2.73 2 10 0
Holmberg, David 2017 L 37 7 2 4 0 57.7 272 63 30 12 34 33 .275 1.68 4.68 6 3 0
Strahm, Matt 2020 L 51 0 0 3 0 56.0 224 38 16 8 11 40 .189 .87 2.61 14 3 0
Mengden, Daniel 2017 R 7 7 3 2 0 43.0 169 36 15 6 9 29 .229 1.05 3.14 0 2 0
Gilbert, Tyler 2021 L 9 6 2 2 0 40.0 157 28 14 4 13 25 .200 1.03 3.15 1 0 0
Gott, Trevor 2020 R 40 0 3 5 11 32.0 154 35 35 19 22 22 .271 1.80 10.03 3 0 0
Bracho, Silvino 2018 R 31 0 2 0 0 31.0 129 25 11 2 12 34 .223 1.19 3.19 3 2 0
Chargois, JT 2021 R 31 0 1 0 0 30.0 118 23 10 2 6 29 .217 .97 3.00 5 2 0
Goudeau, Ashton 2021 R 11 1 2 1 0 25.0 98 16 12 3 8 17 .188 .95 4.26 2 1 0
Totals -- -- 366 170 86 49 11 1,226.3 5008 1089 442 144 275 1062 .236 1.11 3.24
5/31/2022 8:42 PM
Can it be done? I'm sure. If you know exactly what you're doing and you micromanage every day and get every break and you're playing against competition that is overall average.

But I've seen way too many leagues where an owner tried to cut corners with his pitching staff and it completely failed.

Recently completed 60M league, we had an owner draft 1,098 IP. Good quality: RL OAV .205, WHIP 1.08. Playing in Petco.

He got absolutely killed. Finished 23-139. Team ERA: 10.39.
5/31/2022 8:47 PM
You’re gonna be screwed by game 10…any team below 1300 with a DH probably won’t do too well imo…anything under 1250….you’re in for a long one Doc..wel check back here later…

we’ve gone 3 straight 3-3 over here. Mediocrity at its best
5/31/2022 10:19 PM
I think the argument might be that he drafted too quality of innings (in regards to contrarian’s post). Maybe a higher WHIP with more K’s would’ve stretched out his innings much further. I noticed in a theme recently that 1986 Clemens could throw more pitches in a 3 man rotation without appearance fatigue than 1908 Cy Young. And they have a 50 innings difference
5/31/2022 10:20 PM
Posted by contrarian23 on 5/31/2022 8:47:00 PM (view original):
Can it be done? I'm sure. If you know exactly what you're doing and you micromanage every day and get every break and you're playing against competition that is overall average.

But I've seen way too many leagues where an owner tried to cut corners with his pitching staff and it completely failed.

Recently completed 60M league, we had an owner draft 1,098 IP. Good quality: RL OAV .205, WHIP 1.08. Playing in Petco.

He got absolutely killed. Finished 23-139. Team ERA: 10.39.
I’d be curious how that owner managed his team. You absolutely have to micro manage and check your staff daily, and correct course as needed. To go 23-139 you have to give up completely - I doubt little, if any, effort was given to come back and then when it proved too difficult just cashed it in.

5/31/2022 10:54 PM
1098 against real competition will never compete…
5/31/2022 11:20 PM
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Round 1 Sound Off, 2022 Topic

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