Thanks for sharing, elbirdo. Does this revised formula include the 10% bonus?Posted by elbirdo on 4/26/2012 3:09:00 PM (view original):

I was looking over this and I would like to update my formula with what I'm using now

I multiply BFP by 3.392 add 4.444 for each BB and add 1.916 for each strikeout.

For Gagne

BFP = 306

BB = 20

SO = 137

3.392(306) + 4.444(20) + 1.916(137) = 1389.24 pitches

Elbirdo, I apologize, because we all recognize your great, great contribution here, and thank you for sharing this knowledge. My lack of being able to apply is my own failing. But if someone can take another whack at it, thanks.

I just ran a calculation on 1886 Matt Kilroy for a theme league of 700+ IP pitchers I have him in. After getting it WRONG about 7 times and making a fool of myself in front of the whole owners' message board (for those of you who recently wrote me saying I was so smart after some recent philosophical forum posts), I got it using the approach robmb uses:

Ignoring for the moment the 10% SIM bonus:

Kilroy goes 721 innings in which he faces 2426 batters (PA) times 3.392, plus 182 walks (BB) times 4.444 plus 513 strikeouts (K) times 1.916. Taking this resulting number multiplied by 4.450 which is 721 IP divided by 162 gives me 10,021 pitches allocated annually. Since he has already thrown 7,622 or 76 percent of his allocated pitches, over 70 games, he has another 2,450. With the 10% bonus that can go to 2,695. If I want him to pitch 30 of my last 32 games in the season, I should set his PC accordingly at TPC 80, MPC 90.

Have I gotten something wrong here ?

You are using actual values - you need to use Actual Statistics (projected to a 162 game season)

For Kilroy

BFP=3000

BB=225

SO=634

3.392(3000) + 4.444(225) + 1.916(634) =

10176 + 999.9 + 1214.744 = 12391 pitches for a 162 game season.

divided by 162 games = 76.4 pitches per game

After 132 games he has thrown 7708 pitches which is only 76 % of full usage (132 * 76.4 = 10085)

Your Kilroy has 4063 pitches left in the bank or 156 pitches for each of your team's remaining 30 games.

Unfortunately, if you try this he will show temporary fatigue from the infamous "tired from recent game activity". That's what the 99% thing was about, I imagine. He has not even approached in full usage at this point in the season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in. (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

This is one of those situations where you probably cannot get full usage of his allocated pitch count.

After 132 games he has thrown 7708 pitches which is only 76 % of full usage (132 * 76.4 = 10085)

Your Kilroy has 4063 pitches left in the bank or 156 pitches for each of your team's remaining 30 games.

Unfortunately, if you try this he will show temporary fatigue from the infamous "tired from recent game activity". That's what the 99% thing was about, I imagine. He has not even approached in full usage at this point in the season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in. (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

This is one of those situations where you probably cannot get full usage of his allocated pitch count.

For some reason, I am finding it hard to grasp predicting the onset of in-game fatigue. Is it based on exceeding some number of pitches for the game or does it set in if the pitcher exceeds his RL IP/G for that particular game?Posted by elbirdo on 5/30/2012 7:40:00 PM (view original):You are using actual values - you need to use Actual Statistics (projected to a 162 game season)

For KilroyBFP=3000BB=225SO=6343.392(3000) + 4.444(225) + 1.916(634) =10176 + 999.9 + 1214.744 = 12391 pitches for a 162 game season.divided by 162 games = 76.4 pitches per game

After 132 games he has thrown 7708 pitches which is only 76 % of full usage (132 * 76.4 = 10085)

Your Kilroy has 4063 pitches left in the bank or 156 pitches for each of your team's remaining 30 games.

Unfortunately, if you try this he will show temporary fatigue from the infamous "tired from recent game activity". That's what the 99% thing was about, I imagine. He has not even approached in full usage at this point in the season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in. (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

This is one of those situations where you probably cannot get full usage of his allocated pitch count.

I will let you know how it goes. Since I would like to remain in the running for the 100% level games competition, I am going to play it just a shade more conservatively on this point, especially as I am trying to fun Kilroy now as a nearly one-man rotation, throwing Dutch Leonard or Greg Maddux in every fourth game. But Kilroy did one stretch of 8 or 9 games straight at one point before he finally hit 99% for the first time all season. He is now up to 73 of which 72 have been at 100%.

It is worth pointing out though, that NO ONE ever ACTUALLY pitched these many innings: these SIM numbers come from the IP/162 stretching out effect by which pitchers in years that played fewer than 162 games have their stats extended as it were to fit a 162 game schedule.

But it is a fun league, in which many of the who's who of WIS baseball (of which I am not ever going to be one) have teams. I can think of one expert on pitch counts who is missing. Would have been nice to see how you did this in practice there elbirdo. Maybe next time. Or maybe it is too easy for you. You are like those chess champs that can play 8 opponents at once - so we should have a league based around different pitching configurations and have you set the counts for half the teams or something ! Anyway, again, thanks.

elbirdo -- Thanks again! I really appreciate your willingness to share your knowledge of this game.Posted by elbirdo on 5/31/2012 6:46:00 PM (view original):

Exceeding the pitch count which is equal to pitches per season divided by games per season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in. (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

Kilroy seems like he could pitch all day and all year. But I am by far the least experienced player in this league and the weird fact that for the moment I have a chance to pull off this upset (grizzly_one is one of the other players, contrarian23 another, just to give an idea, with about all of my fellow-owners at that level) is too enticing.

My guess is I will fall behind at some point, in which case I will go back to what I was originally planning: to let Kilroy pitch a one-man rotation and just see what happens, setting him at 145. I will let you know how it turns out. Thanks again.