Let me say that elbirdo's formula is brilliant and robmb's synthesis above is VERY helpful for those of us who take a minute to grasp the math.
I just ran a calculation on 1886 Matt Kilroy for a theme league of 700+ IP pitchers I have him in. After getting it WRONG about 7 times and making a fool of myself in front of the whole owners' message board (for those of you who recently wrote me saying I was so smart after some recent philosophical forum posts), I got it using the approach robmb uses:
Ignoring for the moment the 10% SIM bonus:
Kilroy goes 721 innings in which he faces 2426 batters (PA) times 3.392, plus 182 walks (BB) times 4.444 plus 513 strikeouts (K) times 1.916. Taking this resulting number multiplied by 4.450 which is 721 IP divided by 162 gives me 10,021 pitches allocated annually. Since he has already thrown 7,622 or 76 percent of his allocated pitches, over 70 games, he has another 2,450. With the 10% bonus that can go to 2,695. If I want him to pitch 30 of my last 32 games in the season, I should set his PC accordingly at TPC 80, MPC 90.
Have I gotten something wrong here ?