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chester_o
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Quote: Originally Posted By longtallbrad on 10/17/2009




I'm going to ask a really stupid question, then... How do you know which is the better team?

this isnt a mystery - we know which numbers matter (cf. Ash's comments) - it's usually pretty clear

for instance if your starting 5 has reb%s of

(5/13)-(5/15)-(10/20)-(12/30)-(16/26)

and his is

(3/8)-(3/8)-(8/15)-(10/20)-(10/20)

and all else is equal who should win the battle of the boards?

If the team you think is better loses in a seven game series, what are the indicators of statistical outliers - as opposed to you (or any of us) just having formed the wrong assumptions about the likely winner?


my 60 win Orlando Magic team just lost a second round playoff series in the gymrat league to an Atlanta Hawk team they'd beaten 6 times in 8 tries during the regular season

in one loss the Magic had 31 turnovers and 31 PFs (uptempo but no press by either team and the magic ran UT all season averaging 18 TOs)

in another, the final game of the series even though Orlando only had 20 PFs to Atlanta's 25 Atlanta went to the line 40 times (to Orlando's 23) including 23 times for Dominique (again no press and no double on Nique)

there's 2 in 6 games and the difference between a visit to the conference finals and an early exit
10/17/2009 4:55 PM
earlmantis
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Beating a dead horse here but it can't be said enough. Defensive effectiveness for what you pay is absurd. I remember facing teams just last year that would pride themselves on drafting all 90+ defensive rated players while still retaining solid offensive efficiency and those teams being tough as hell to beat. Nowadays go ahead and load up and defense and watch a 3 pt bombin gteam walk all over your *** and drop 15-20 3 pointers a game while beating you by 20. It sucks it really does, this SIM used to be alot of fun, mixing and matching DIFFERENT players everytime around. Damn I won 2....yes 2 titles playing primarily SLOWDOWN, they were teams built heavily around rebounders and 52%-54% shooters, where would that get me now? Can the cookie cutter be beaten sure it can but the fun is taken out of the SIM when half the games you play are ag those same teams built around the cookie cutters and the owners who act like they had no clue that their team was "cookie cutter." Nice job buddy you're owner rating is in the top 25 because you run the same squad out there everytime, congrats that means something around here....oh wait
10/18/2009 8:56 AM
naboimp
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Chester,

I get what you are saying with the gambler's fallacy. That's the situation where you say something is due to happen soon because it hasn't happened yet when the odds of it occurring are unchanged. That isn't really what I was saying. In fact, I was arguing against the reverse of the gambler's fallacy where you assume something can't happen just because it hasn't happened yet. It is equally false. In any case, the situation you were describing was a single game situation. I don't see how sample size complaints come into play there.

Chester and Ashamael,

I'm sure you realize there is a big difference between stat normalization and the outcome of a game. Yes, WIS is a simulation engine, but it is also a game. In simulation terms, yes, ten games is too small a sample to suppose that the statistics generated would match the expected averages. But in terms of playing a game, who cares? The stats are as likely to vary positively as negatively. The sim's regular season does do a sufficient job of removing the weakest teams, and then if you need a little luck to get through the playoffs, then that isn't exactly unprecedented among real life teams. People complain about the times they are upset, but what about all the other playoff series that go their way? I don't have official stats, but I would hazard a guess that most seasons are won by one of a group of elite teams during that season even if one or more elite teams fall early in the playoffs.

"Should" is a misleading term in this context. The team with better rebounders is expected to have more rebounds each game in the statistical sense, but there is no guarantee that they will. In the end, the stat base only represents probabilities. And again, speaking up for randomness, that is how it should be. The game becomes stale if you can always predict the result in advance. It is that staleness that overly infects the sim at present as I indicated above. (Note, of course, that there are other ways to win the "battle of the boards". For instance, a team that shoots significantly better than its opponents will generally outrebound them too just because there are many more boards available at their defensive end - where they have the advantage even against the best rebounding teams - than at their offensive end.)

10/19/2009 9:27 AM
ashamael
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how does seble's c0ck taste, nabo? You've had it in your mouth for a long, long time now.
10/19/2009 4:11 PM
longtallbrad
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I gotta say it's noteworthy how few regular owners have made recent contributions to this thread. Is the sim working well enough for them, or are they turned off by the (frequently) unproductive back-and-forth? Not sure I see a third option.
10/19/2009 4:27 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By ashamael on 10/19/2009how does seble's c0ck taste, nabo? You've had it in your mouth for a long, long time now
lofl!
10/19/2009 4:39 PM
naboimp
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Ashamael,

Write when you actually have an argument to present. Flinging insults may bring a laugh to some, but it also proves you don't have a clue how to refute what I wrote.



10/19/2009 6:36 PM
ashamael
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Quote: Originally posted by naboimpmmmmm *slurp, slurp* 88-89 Michael Jordan shouldn't be 100% at pg *slurp, slurp* The sim is fine the way it is *slurp, slurp* I haven't won a championship and only have played 11 teams but I'll continue acting like I'm an expert *slurp, slurp* on the sim because I'm obviously smarter than anybody else *slurp, slurp*
10/19/2009 8:38 PM
ashamael
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Quote: Originally posted by longtallbrad on 10/19/2009are they turned off by the (frequently) unproductive back-and-forth?

At this point I am just entertaining myself while bored at work. I expect nothing to get changed here (and *NOT* because the sim is working fine)
10/19/2009 8:41 PM
shapandrew7
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Quote: Originally posted by naboimp on 10/19/2009Ashamael,Write when you actually have an argument to present.  Flinging insults may bring a laugh to some, but it also proves you don't have a clue how to refute what I wrote.  

Siding w/Ash on this one, youngin'. Act like you know something when you've done something in this game.

This SIM is screwed up. Every point made by regulars (monk, chester, ash, colonels, ltb, et all) is valid if not worth exploring.

Sucks that it doesn't look like it will be fixed...
10/20/2009 8:16 AM
garyman
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I'll be shocked if anything happens before the NFL season is over.

In the meantime, to amuse ourselves, we can place bets on the date of the next update. Dunno how Vegas works but how about these odds:

in October 2009, 100,000 - 1
in November 2009, 50,000 - 1
in December 2009, 25,000 - 1
in Jan 2010, 5,000 - 1
in Feb 2010, 2500 - 1
in March 2010, 500 - 1
April 2010 or later, 2 - 1

It really puts things in perspective when we start talking about 2010. I just checked and this thread was started May 12, 2009.
10/20/2009 12:44 PM
naboimp
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Shap,

Ash is an a$$ who contributes nothing except to whine when he doesn't win, and I bet I'm older than he is. Regardless, it doesn't take a great volume of games to see the issues with the sim. There are serious issues as I indicated, but "too much randomness" isn't one of them.

10/21/2009 8:52 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By naboimp on 10/21/2009

Shap,

Ash is an a$$ who contributes nothing except to whine when he doesn't win, and I bet I'm older than he is. Regardless, it doesn't take a great volume of games to see the issues with the sim. There are serious issues as I indicated, but "too much randomness" isn't one of them.

Too much randomness and/or pseudo randomness are serious issues. I'll have my example momentarily...and here it is...

Got to love a nice 50 point swing at the same venue....beat 04-05 Heat by 14 a few days ago at my place and then they trounce me by 36 this morning...quite nice.

How do you explain/account for this naboimp? I'll say this, if I thought the randomness worked properly in this sim/on this site, I wouldn't be griping about it. This wasn't the first issue I've had and it certainly won't be the last. The evidence is really on my side as well....where did all the customers go if the game is so fantastic?
10/21/2009 9:43 AM
chester_o
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Quote: Originally Posted By naboimp on 10/21/2009
 Regardless, it doesn't take a great volume of games to see the issues with the sim. There are serious issues as I indicated, but "too much randomness" isn't one of them.

here is you saying one thing


Quote: Originally Posted By naboimp on 10/19/2009




In simulation terms, yes, ten games is too small a sample to suppose that the statistics generated would match the expected averages. But in terms of playing a game, who cares? The stats are as likely to vary positively as negatively.

this is you agreeing that there is too much randomness

The sim's regular season does do a sufficient job of removing the weakest teams, and then if you need a little luck to get through the playoffs, then that isn't exactly unprecedented among real life teams.

this is you trying to rationalize it by referencing real life expectations when 1) real life outliers (i.e. 7 game series upsets) occur less frequently IRL than they do in the sim (and the sim upsets should occur less) 2) the factors that go into such real life outcomes are not at play in the sim nor should they be

"Should" is a misleading term in this context. The team with better rebounders is expected to have more rebounds each game in the statistical sense, but there is no guarantee that they will. In the end, the stat base only represents probabilities.

in terms of competition we pay for that 'should' by concentrating our salary cap resources on those rebounding stats - it is exactly in that context that 'should' holds sway - if we pay for rebounding and our opponent doesnt we 'should' win that battle

And again, speaking up for randomness, that is how it should be. The game becomes stale if you can always predict the result in advance. It is that staleness that overly infects the sim at present as I indicated above.

false - build a better team and balance the stat conditionals - when there are good owners at work and when all stats are equal and 'equally' priced according to their actual weight in the sim more varied team models will work and there will be more competitive balance game to game

but instituting a false parity by making it more likely that the inferior team will steal a victory simply rewards ignorance and reduces the competitive element of the game - in effect when we are winning or losing by luck we are hardly competing with each other at all - and that is boring





10/21/2009 10:05 AM
badja
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Chester you sum up everything very well.
I like the part about "build a better team". That is it exactly. Why should we give a bad team a victory? Ridiculous.
The SIM would more, not less competitive if WIS reduced randomness and did a better job explaining the intricacies of their game to new users.

One more issue: normalization. I think rebounds are the only normalized stats used right now. As we know, most players are unusable. Would like to be able to use Arizin and Elvin Hayes again.
10/21/2009 10:57 PM
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