Not giving up the walk! Topic

Trentonjoe
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Quote: Originally Posted By Trentonjoe on 11/29/2009
There are 45 guys (out of 350ish) with walks under 1.5 and ERA's over 5.



Maybe, the guys that are good pitchers and don't walk people do well. Maybe the guys that aren't good pitchers but don't walk people don't do well.





Sorry, that is for pitchers with less than 125 ip.
11/29/2009 8:02 PM
believeit
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"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it." [Sandy Koufax]

11/29/2009 9:02 PM
dahsdebater
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Quote: Originally Posted By boogerlips on 11/27/2009Whats incredible about everybody's logic is that you aren't realizing that NOBODY has EVER failed at the 'I'm not walking anybody' strategy. It works every time. There are 346 recorded seasons of 125IP and 1.5BB/9 or less. Basically every last one of them was successful. The worst was a 5.3 ERA. The 7th worst was a 4.8ERA. Not bad for getting "hammered". So your logic then takes you to 'Well, ALL of the pitchers from the 346 seasons were freaks and ZERO pitchers who weren't freaks have EVER tried the 'I'm not walking anybody even if I have to throw it 88mph right down the ****'. ZERO nonfreaks have EVER tried this at any point in history? Really people? If you can't not walk people without getting hammered, why doesn't history carry evidence? All the evidence points to the opposite being true. You don't walk hitters, you have success.
Actually booger, I would say that at least a few have - those are the seasons with the ERAs well under league average with low walk rates that you admit exist at the beginning of your post. This actually surprises me. I would think that ZERO nonfreaks too stubborn to pitch around a good hitter would ever get a shot in the big leagues. Without incredibly good stuff and/or unbelievable command, never issuing a walk is pure death for a pitcher. If the batter knows there is no chance of a ball out of the zone in a 3-ball count, he's going to hit .400 or .500 or better unless the pitcher is basically a freak. That's why there are so relatively few pitchers with very low walk totals - not that many guys have the talent level to get away with it...
11/29/2009 11:16 PM
akira_hokuto
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Quote: Originally posted by boogerlips on 11/24/2009I keep waiting for the day when major league pitching coaches realize that simply refusing to give up walks is what separates the men from the boys. Of course I'm still waiting for the day that Tony LaRussa stops batting his worst hitter in the 2 spot and costing us eight games a year, but I digress....

I did a Wis Search for all pitchers who had at least 125IP, and 1.5BB/9 or less. 326 seasons show up (minus clone seasons). Only 48 pitchers had an ERA higher than 4. Greg Maddux appears on this list 5 times (his last 5 seasons in fact). Bob Tewksbury, David Wells, Robin Roberts, and Lew Burdette appear 3 times. 17 of the 48 seasons are by the previous 4 pitchers. The highest ERA of the 48 seasons was a 5.31 by Tewk in a season he gave up 1.27BB/9. Most of the group is more towards the 4.00ERA end, with only 7 players having an ERA higher than 4.80.A lot of people think Maddux had some mysterious genius. I think the majority of his "genius" was realizing what others refuse to. Walks are bad. Seems like 99% of pitchers think that they are giving in to a hitter if they don't nibble at the strikezone. Make 'em hit it!

By setting your minimum as 125 innings you set a survivor bias. Those who didn't walk many but gave up a lot of runs didn't get to pitch 125 innings.

There are over 100 'seasons' worth of pitchers who walked less than 1.5/ 9 but had below league average ERAs who didn't get to pitch your magical 125 innings.
11/30/2009 1:07 AM
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Trentonjoe
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Booger, what exactly was your original point? Walks are bad?
11/30/2009 8:45 AM
pfattkatt
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Isn't it cliche to suggest that pitchers should walk less batters? I think the discussion has revolved around whether or not the walks are from cowardice, ineptitude, or some alternate reality. I seem to be missing something, beyond the cliche. I have a book at home, a SABR book, maybe someone else will be able to help with the name, but they do a season by season study of the number of walks Barry Bonds received during his dominant years. The quality of the batter behind Bonds was shown to have a huge impact on how he was pitched to. But, I would think that, systematic study or not, we all know that. So Booger, if your point is simply that batters who walk contribute to their team's offense, and that the pitchers who walk them contribute to their team's demise, OK, and let's move on. If your point is something more cerebral than that, I'm afraid it is glancing off my skull.
11/30/2009 9:12 AM
Trentonjoe
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I love when people write what I was thinking a thousand times better than I could have written.
11/30/2009 9:30 AM
baldric
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You know the math and data exists to figure this out, so arguing is dumb. If you care, do the math, show your work, and then everyone (who can understand math) will agree with you.

I don't care enough to do the math myself, but you all seem to....

11/30/2009 12:14 PM
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dahsdebater
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Quote: Originally Posted By boogerlips on 11/30/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By Trentonjoe on 11/30/2009

Booger, what exactly was your original point? Walks are bad?

ALL walks are ALL bad. There is no such thing as a good one or one that was better than the alternative. Not even Albert Pujols is good enough to be pitched around. The math just simply doesn't work. A pitcher loses the battle each and every time he walks a batter. Thats the point. It for sure isn't cliche, because its the exact opposite of what everybody I've ever heard thinks. I've seen pitchers who all of a sudden can't throw a strike to save their lives, but the vast majority of walks are the pitchers fault. As in a fault of approach. If you told a pitcher to make not giving up walks his number one priority, making the velocity and movement of the pitches secondary goals if and only if goal #1 is met, then the said pitcher would have a career year in ERA.


I think this is patently untrue. I thought it was universally known among baseball people and educated fans that throwing too many strikes without movement is a recipe for disaster...
11/30/2009 1:56 PM
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dahsdebater
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You just said that movement and velocity were secondary and only a focus if the pitcher was avoiding walks and thus throwing a lot of strikes...

Incidentally, Robin Roberts' best season in terms of BB/9 was 1956. It was also one of his worst ERA seasons. Certainly not a career year...
11/30/2009 2:07 PM
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