in fact if you're looking for alternative models to get to 50 wins and a shot at the middle rounds you can try what Portland or OKC have done
5/7/2010 5:28 PM
That's actually kinda ties into my point- it's really hard to buy a championship via FA cause most teams aren't dumb enough to let their stars hit the open market, even if they have to "overpay" them. This isn't about "buying" a championship, it's about the value of the number 16-30 players, which seems to be pretty close to zero according to you guys.

FYI Ray averaged 20.3 pts with a 70.8 TS% against LA- he had a legit case for finals MVP and they likely don't win a title without him. It's stupid to say "he doesn't count" simply because he was the 3rd best player on the team.
5/7/2010 5:34 PM
Quote: Originally posted by felonius on 5/07/2010in fact if you're looking for alternative models to get to 50 wins and a shot at the middle rounds you can try what Portland or OKC have done

Land a top 10 stud with a lottery pick? Yeah, that's real easy to do.
5/7/2010 5:35 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 5/07/2010
Quote: Originally posted by felonius on 5/07/2010 in fact if you're looking for alternative models to get to 50 wins and a shot at the middle rounds you can try what Portland or OKC have done

Land a top 10 stud with a lottery pick? Yeah, that's real easy to do


it's clearly easier to do than giving away a max contract in hopes of winning a title since that's worked once in 40 years

I dont see how drafting astutely, making the right trades, signing the right support players and keeping cap space available so you can facilitate other people's foolishness is such a bad thing
5/7/2010 5:40 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 5/07/2010he was the 3rd best player on the team
5/7/2010 5:41 PM
That's a great breakdown: "GM's should just make good decisions!" Could you possibly be any more vague?

You're missing the entire point and even halfway making it for me- top 5 players almost NEVER hit the FA market (like you said- once in the past 40 years), which is why cap space has minimal value. This is why it is wise to use your cap space on a player like Joe Johnson when you get the chance- because he's pretty much the pinnacle of what you can get in FA.

Sure, he can't win a title all by himself, but there's very clear value to having him on the roster. I mean, seriously- should the Hawks have elected to not sign him and just carry on with the stat quo?
5/7/2010 5:46 PM
If Joe Johnson is the best player on your team, you have almost no chance of ever winning a title. He should be the 2nd best player on a legit contender (like Pau Gasol is with LA). I pretty much agree with Firehawk122. Unless you have a "gold medal superstar", you have almost no chance to win a title (2004 Pistons being the only exception in recent memory). If ur happy being an above average team with no real title shot, then go ahead and pay JJ the max.
5/7/2010 6:00 PM
OK, so let's run through this.

The Top 5 players have a lot of value.

The #6-10 guys have some value.

Everyone else has zero value.

Agree or disagree?
5/7/2010 6:07 PM
So current median team salary is just under 70 M.

I have a valuation system that tracks back to the '81 season (minimum 500 minutes). I'm not saying this system is perfect by any means, but it does track pretty well against MVP voting and All-NBA teams.

The median team cumulative valuation is ~55 M in that system. Pro-rating the values, here is the valuation for Joe Johnson in his Atlanta years:

'06: 12.3 M
'07: 10.7 M
'08: 13 M
'09: 13.3 M
'10: 12.9 M

So was he overpaid during his Atlanta tenure according to this system? Yes...but not by much; his valuation would be close to fair market value.

Lewis (Orlando):
'08: 11.2 M
'09: 11.4 M
'10: 8.5 M

Over-paid.

Gasol (LA):

'08 pro-rated: 14.2 M
'09: 13 M
'10: 12.7 M

Based on this system, within the past 3 years, here is the list of players who had a single season valuation at the $15 M mark:

'08:

Lebron
Iverson
Baron Davis
Kobe
Paul

'09:
Lebron
Kobe
Wade
Paul
Howard

'10:

Lebron
Wade
Durant
Kobe

On a different end of the spectrum, here is an Erik Dampier for career:

1997 $3,686,010.26
1998 $7,628,557.08
1999 $5,834,795.04
2001 $3,258,069.72
2002 $5,025,340.94
2003 $5,669,744.36
2004 $9,631,999.15
2005 $5,363,439.91
2006 $5,125,221.56
2007 $5,372,061.43
2008 $5,674,715.38
2009 $5,524,812.60
2010 $4,181,145.92

And Lebron:

2004 $13,543,006.22
2005 $19,029,994.36
2006 $19,643,866.30
2007 $17,570,714.38
2008 $20,278,098.46
2009 $20,907,206.30
2010 $21,958,375.77

So essentially, it's saying that a Lebron is worth over 5 X that of a Dampier.

And Wade (in comparison to Lebron):

2004 $8,786,486.43
2005 $14,850,611.93
2006 $16,805,819.04
2007 $12,943,149.00
2008 $10,577,568.11
2009 $19,806,633.43
2010 $17,530,433.71

This gave me some interesting things to think about; hopefully it will to other viewers of this.
5/7/2010 6:39 PM
I see a couple of flaws in your system. First, it doesn't distinguish between a FA contract and a rookie scale deal. So when you have a guy like Durant who's producing like a max player for $5M, it tricks the system into thinking that you can get a stud like him for $5M on the open market, which deflates all of the fair values.

Second, LeBron is worth way more than 5X Dampier. He's worth like 25-30 wins on his own (although it's a tricky subject in basketball because WARP isn't exactly linear), and Dampier was never a 6-7 win player. So maybe there should be a steeper curve (i.e. an exponential one).

Any system that doesn't value LeBron north of $50M is flawed.
5/7/2010 6:52 PM
Quote: Originally posted by deanod on 5/07/2010I see a couple of flaws in your system. First, it doesn't distinguish between a FA contract and a rookie scale deal. So when you have a guy like Durant who's producing like a max player for $5M, it tricks the system into thinking that you can get a stud like him for $5M on the open market, which deflates all of the fair values.

Second, LeBron is worth way more than 5X Dampier. He's worth like 25-30 wins on his own (although it's a tricky subject in basketball because WARP isn't exactly linear), and Dampier was never a 6-7 win player. So maybe there should be a steeper curve (i.e. an exponential one).

Any system that doesn't value LeBron north of $50M is flawed.

1) Only stat inputs were put in - the player's actual salary wasn't calculated - obviously the #'s were input after the fact - but if you get enough sample points you can get an idea of where a player will peak at and fall off at.

2) I would have to make the formula exponential in order to drive up Lebron's value. Dampier's peak WS was 8.9; Lebron has been at 20.3 in '09 and 18.5 in '10. Wade was 14.7 and then 13. This year Dampier's WS was 3.7.

So it is in fact roughly proportional to WS.
5/7/2010 7:22 PM
Maybe you should try setting a baseline WS and subtracting it to make a WARP formula. So if a replacement player is worth 3 WS (to pick an arbitrary number), then LeBron is worth 15.5 vs. 0.7, which makes much more sense.

And you can solve the open market thing with some sort of multiplier.
5/7/2010 7:25 PM
I love and completely back the Patsketball Pricing System lol
5/7/2010 11:34 PM
Quote: Originally posted by deanod on 5/07/2010Maybe you should try setting a baseline WS and subtracting it to make a WARP formula. So if a replacement player is worth 3 WS (to pick an arbitrary number), then LeBron is worth 15.5 vs. 0.7, which makes much more sense.
And you can solve the open market thing with some sort of multiplier.
WARP was originally designed for baseball - in baseball you have the same 9 man lineup that hits day to day per my understanding (I do not follow baseball). And it's also a game where how your stats interact with your teammates don't matter so much.

You'd have to re-apply a new formula in general, but even the Replacement Player would have to have some sort of salary or value assigned to him.

So let's say arbitrarily, that the replacement value is $ X per minute with Y minutes played - and you subtracted it from Lebron's and Dampier's value - that Lebron would end up with a value >>>>>> 500% Dampier's value (probably 1000-3000% higher) - you would still need to subtract the base value though.

If I subtracted the 20th percentile player's value arbitrarily from each players' value, Lebron's value becomes ~ 15 X that of Dampier - which is more consistent with what you were saying earlier. It's just taking the next step in the calculation.



5/8/2010 12:37 AM
Yeah, WARP in basketball is a bit of a square peg in a round hole, but if you can make a WS formula, you can make a WARP formula.

I like that suggestion- I think it makes the most sense to set $X as replacement, find the value over and multiply by Y minutes. Among those with 500+ minutes, I would set the #250 dollar per minute as replacement level (since most teams run 8-9 man rotations).

I would be curious to see what the results of that would be.
5/8/2010 12:58 AM
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