Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 5/10/2010One thing about that stat is that things were way different 40 years back. Players would stay in school for 4 years and end up hitting FA at age 29/30 at the tail end of their prime. Now the formula is to go one and done and sign a 3 year extension after the rookie deal, so you can be a UFA at age 26.

Naturally, JJ + Amare doesn't make the Knicks contenders though

It doesn't make them contenders, but it makes them a playoff team, which is a step in the right direction.

Trying to win the lottery is not a sound method for competing for championships, sure the championship teams often get lucky and win the lottery, but it really is a crap shoot. You could just as easily end up with the Kandi man as you could Tim Duncan. I mean the Celtics have twice in the last 15 years tried to win the lottery and twice flamed out (by missing Duncan and then by missing Durant, Ainge is one of the few guys that had Durant higher then Oden).

And since we are talking about championships, lets just see who the best player is on the Finals teams, who drafted him, and at what position from just the last five seasons.

• Lakers - Kobe 13 (Hornets, draft day trade)
• Magic - Howard 1 (Magic)
• Celtics - Garnett 5 (T-Wolves, trade - you could maybe count Pierce who was the 10th pick for the Celtics)
• Lakers (see above)
• Spurs - Duncan 1 (Spurs)
• Cavs - Lebron 1 (Cavs)
• Heat - Wade 4 (Heat or Shaq 1, trade)
• Mavs - Dirk 9 (Bucks, draft day trade)
• Spurs (see above)
• Pistons - who knows, but he wasn't drafted

So there are the 8 different teams (spurs and lakers twice) that have been in the finals in the last 5 seasons

2 teams best player was acquired in a draft day trade (Kobe and Dirk), 3 teams best player was the 1st pick in the draft by that team (Howard, Lebron, Duncan), Wade was the 4th pick, Garnett was acquired via trade

It seems to me that you are just as likely to trade for your best player as your are to draft him, and if you do draft him you better damn well be sure you have the 1st pick.

Also if you start going back further you get the Lakers when Shaq was the best player, the Nets with Kidd, Sixers with Iverson, the Pacers with Rose (perhaps Miller), etc.

You certainly don't have to draft your best player to be in the finals, said player just almost always needs to be a top five draft pick.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 5/10/2010One thing about that stat is that things were way different 40 years back. Players would stay in school for 4 years and end up hitting FA at age 29/30 at the tail end of their prime. Now the formula is to go one and done and sign a 3 year extension after the rookie deal, so you can be a UFA at age 26.

Naturally, JJ + Amare doesn't make the Knicks contenders though

He said the past 40 FINALISTS, not champions...so he's looking at the last 20 years.

I agree moranis- I spent like 2 pages arguing that same thing.

You can't count draft day trades though- that's a trade of the pick, not the player. And the Heat title was D-Wade all the way with Shaq a distant #2.

Anyway, one important thing to consider is that NBA history is a SSS of sorts. Just because a team didn't win, it doesn't mean that their FO strategy failed. For example, the Chris Webber Kings at a time had a very realistic shot at a championship. They didn't make the finals, but since they were in a position to do I would give them a bit of credit.

What would interest me is if somebody could come up with win probabilities over the past 10 or whatever playoffs and add up the expected championships for each franchise.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

in regards to 2011 free agency, doesnt Carmelo have a player option?

Yes sir.

It would be funny if the Knicks saved their cap space to invest in him, only for him to not opt out and then not come to New York the following offseason.

I dunno that Melo is the best player on a title team.....

Back to the point since there are reading comprehension issues here:

Of the last 40 teams to play in a Finals (so yes, going back 20 years), 30 of the teams had their best player on opening night of his rookie season. The draft is a safer way to build a championship caliber team (then again, if you consistently draft crappy, you will stay crappy).

For those saying that only a few players are worth the max and you should tank until you get a star, what is the probability of getting one of those guys?

They don't come around every year, the best player in the draft isnt always the #1 pick, and the lottery doesnt guarantee you anything.

Even once you do hit the lottery, the player has to mature for a few years before being considered a top 5 player. Then you are still going to need a complementary player/Joe Johnson type to be a championship contender. It would be nearly impossible to draft two top-notch players within years of each other. I dont get the argument against it when you use Gasol or Rashard Lewis - you have to have another great player to go along with your star and you can get those guys through free agency. You see what teams they are playing for...the Magic and Lakers? The Magic were able to find a way to get a great player even though they had to "overpay". If they didnt act, they would just be stuck with expiring contacts/MLE guys that anyone can acquire. When you can get your hands on a YOUNG, 2nd or 3rd option like Johnson or Lewis, you take advantage of it. Now that Johnson is older, I dont think you give him the max, but he's definitely worth over 10 mil. He's smart, tall, skilled, and a greater shooter - he should age well.

It is not all about winning championships. Its not financially smart to wait around for years - maybe decades - until that rare GMS comes around.

As for LeBron, this idea has always intrigued me:

Bill Simmons (12:22 PM) Dallas is the sleeping giant this summer. Big city, Cuban, no state tax, Damp's contract for sign and trade purposes (for instance, if LeBron decided, I AM PLAYING IN DALLAS, Dallas could offer Damp's contract, Butler, $3 million and the French rookie.
Bill Simmons (12:24 PM) One other LeBron/Dallas wrinkle: They could play 6-8 regular season games and a couple of playoff games in the football stadium. Cuban mentioned this 2 days after the All Star Game... didnt mention LeBron specifically, just something about 'enticing free agents' that way. Hmmmmm.

PG - Kidd
SG - Terry
SF - LeBron
PF - Dirk
C - Haywood

Lots of flexibility with that lineup and Marion coming off the bench.

There is no way Lebron will be a sign and trade. Either he'll stay in Cleveland for the max or he'll just sign elsewhere.

Quote: Originally Posted By teamjosh04 on 5/10/2010It is not all about winning championships. Its not financially smart to wait around for years - maybe decades - until that rare GMS comes around.

here's what you do - draft wisely, spend wisely, trade wisely - dont hit home runs build a team and look for the right pieces

but dont be Isiah whatever you do and sign a guy just because you have all this space

in answer to your earlier question - 1 team has actually ever signed its way to titles all others have built thru trades and drafting - period, end of sentence

Quote: Originally posted by teamjosh04 on 5/10/2010For those saying that only a few players are worth the max and you should tank until you get a star, what is the probability of getting one of those guys?

They don't come around every year, the best player in the draft isnt always the #1 pick, and the lottery doesnt guarantee you anything.

Even once you do hit the lottery, the player has to mature for a few years before being considered a top 5 player. Then you are still going to need a complementary player/Joe Johnson type to be a championship contender. It would be nearly impossible to draft two top-notch players within years of each other. I dont get the argument against it when you use Gasol or Rashard Lewis - you have to have another great player to go along with your star and you can get those guys through free agency. You see what teams they are playing for...the Magic and Lakers? The Magic were able to find a way to get a great player even though they had to "overpay". If they didnt act, they would just be stuck with expiring contacts/MLE guys that anyone can acquire. When you can get your hands on a YOUNG, 2nd or 3rd option like Johnson or Lewis, you take advantage of it. Now that Johnson is older, I dont think you give him the max, but he's definitely worth over 10 mil. He's smart, tall, skilled, and a greater shooter - he should age well.

Unless you have the Howard or Kobe, a guy like Lewis or JJ just becomes a massive albatross. Really guys, check out Elton Brand/Philly or the Knicks.

Brand sucks and Knicks have never signed anyone good.

Im not a fan of signing these secondary star players after they've already received a big contact (like Brand or the guys the Knicks wasted money on) - getting them at the age of 25 or 26 is the way to go.