Quote: Originally posted by teamjosh04 on 5/10/2010I wouldnt give them a shot at contending either, but would you be willing to give JJ the max again and settle for what that squad gets you each year?

No

Quote: Originally Posted By firehawk122 on 5/09/2010Of the last 40 finalists, 30 drafted their best player. Worth mentioning

Very misleading stat you decided to use for this arguement.

Go back just the last 10 years and what do you get?

Its even or at worst +1 for drafted players depending on who you think was the best players on the Pacers when they went to the Finals.

Comparing anything older than that has no relevance on the current state of NBA free agency, it was all pre-salary cap when people like Glenn Robinson and Larry Johnson got 15 year deals. Magic had a 25 year deal. So players who could lead you to a championship didnt start hitting free agency untill Shaq in 96

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By firehawk122 on 5/09/2010
Of the last 40 finalists, 30 drafted their best player. Worth mentioning.

Very misleading stat you decided to use for this arguement.

Go back just the last 10 years and what do you get?

Its even or at worst +1 for drafted players depending on who you think was the best players on the Pacers when they went to the Finals.

Comparing anything older than that has no relevance on the current state of NBA free agency, it was all pre-salary cap when people like Glenn Robinson and Larry Johnson got 15 year deals. Magic had a 25 year deal. So players who could lead you to a championship didnt start hitting free agency untill Shaq in 96

Shaq is the only case of a FA signing leading directly to a title ever

otherwise it's either the draft or trades

yes and no

hes the only FA signing that was the best player on a championship team, but free agent signings can set you up to make trades and signings can help fill in other needs to put a team over the top, as has been said, a lot of luck goes into winning a title

Shaq is the only max FA signing that lead to a title is a better statement

i agree trades play a big role, but firehawk said drafted players only, im refuting that

Key free agent signings on Finals teams in the past 10 years



1999 Knicks

Larry Johnson

Allan Houston

Chris Childs



2000-2003, 2005, 2008-2009 Lakers

Shaq O'Neal

Ron Harper

Horace Grant

Robert Horry

Karl Malone

Gary Payton



2008 Celtics

James Posey



2007 Cavaliers

Larry Hughes



2006 Mavericks

Erick Dampier



2004-2005 Pistons

Chauncey Billups



2006 Heat

Alonzo Mourning

Gary Payron

James Posey



2009 Magic

Rashard Lewis

Hedo turkoglu

Theres a few guys I cant remember if they were traded or signed as free agents, for example Antonio McDyess, Jalen Rose, and Jason Williams. Overall though 14 of the 20 last Finals teams have gotten at least 1 key contributor through free agency

Quote: Originally posted by ea162 on 5/11/2010yes and nohes the only FA signing that was the best player on a championship team, but free agent signings can set you up to make trades and signings can help fill in other needs to put a team over the top, as has been said, a lot of luck goes into winning a titleShaq is the only max FA signing that lead to a title is a better statementi agree trades play a big role, but firehawk said drafted players only, im refuting that

picked 20 for sample size - going further back than 20 yrs is too far; shorter than that yields only 20 teams.

Either way - this is hardly convincing that a non contender should go out and **** away a max deal on a JJ/Amare (although I don't neccessarily think that was your intent).

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010
Key free agent signings on Finals teams in the past 10 years



1999 Knicks

Larry Johnson

Allan Houston

Chris Childs



2000-2003, 2005, 2008-2009 Lakers

Shaq O'Neal

Ron Harper

Horace Grant

Robert Horry

Karl Malone

Gary Payton



2008 Celtics

James Posey



2007 Cavaliers

Larry Hughes



2006 Mavericks

Erick Dampier



2004-2005 Pistons

Chauncey Billups



2006 Heat

Alonzo Mourning

Gary Payron

James Posey



2009 Magic

Rashard Lewis

Hedo turkoglu

Theres a few guys I cant remember if they were traded or signed as free agents, for example Antonio McDyess, Jalen Rose, and Jason Williams. Overall though 14 of the 20 last Finals teams have gotten at least 1 key contributor through free agency

this is nice - now for the next step in the exercise please go back and take out the names of all the guys who didnt get 20m+ maxed out contracts (of the kind we are talking about for Joe Johnson) leaving only those players who were the best player on the team that won a title

I'll do it for you (already did)

Shaq

i completely agree that those guys by themselves cant lead you to a title

but sitting on 20M in cap space sure isnt winning you one either

im of the opinion that its better to sign guys with the space you have to put yourself in a position to capitalize on trades and other signings of vets for the minimum down the road

im definitely not a fan of tanking year after year in the hopes you win the lottery when a Top 10 player comes along, thats more of a crapshoot in my mind

in the real world its much better to be competitive every year and never win a title than it is to tank for 10 and then have one good year from a business stance, and this is a business above all else, unless your Mark Cuban and dont mind running $70M deficits every year

the Knicks could do a lot worse then signing JJ and Amare this off-season, if they have that opportunity they should go for it

might not lead to a title in itself, but it also might open a door for a trade down the road or attract another free agent next off-season

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010
yes and no

hes the only FA signing that was the best player on a championship team, but free agent signings can set you up to make trades and signings can help fill in other needs to put a team over the top, as has been said, a lot of luck goes into winning a title

Shaq is the only max FA signing that lead to a title is a better statement

i agree trades play a big role, but firehawk said drafted players only, im refuting that

I've been arguing alongside FH the whole time and have repeatedly stated "trades and drafting"

nor does any of this change the primary fact that only one team has ever hit a home run through the free agent market - with JJ we're talking a contract that could eventually take up half a team's cap load per annum as it matures

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010

the Knicks could do a lot worse then signing JJ and Amare this off-season, if they have that opportunity they should go for it

might not lead to a title in itself, but it also might open a door for a trade down the road or attract another free agent next off-season

so you are saying the Knicks should drop 30m per year on JJ?

how does JJ+Amare + Galinari and Wilson Chandler make for a better mix than Horford, Smith + JJ et al in Atlanta? maybe if they could figure out a way to keep Lee?

the Knicks wouldnt be dropping $30M a year on JJ, they cant offer that much

do you realize only 1 team has ever won a title due directly to winning the draft lottery?

how is that any different than free agency?

too many other factors are involved to say either way is the sole way to win a title

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010
the Knicks wouldnt be dropping $30M a year on JJ, they cant offer that much

as the contract matures they would be

how does JJ+Amare + Galinari and Wilson Chandler make for a better mix than Horford, Smith + JJ et al in Atlanta? maybe if they could figure out a way to keep Lee?

Quote: Originally Posted By felonius on 5/11/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By ea162 on 5/11/2010
the Knicks wouldnt be dropping $30M a year on JJ, they cant offer that much

as the contract matures they would be

how does JJ+Amare + Galinari and Wilson Chandler make for a better mix than Horford, Smith + JJ et al in Atlanta? maybe if they could figure out a way to keep Lee?

only in a sign and trade would JJ get that much from the Knicks, so again, not going to happen

do you propose the Knicks not spend any money and win 30 games every year?