Quote: Originally posted by TheJester74 on 5/07/2010The error I find in this is the shuttle is about a full burst one direction and doing a 180. Even a bad outfielder doesn't frequently run full tilt the wrong direction only to run full tilt the opposite direction like the shuttle.
Plus the worst outfielder doesn't get it wrong every time. So how often does he get it correct and is able to run down a ball that completely goes over 275 lbs guys head vs how often breaks the wrong direction.
Think of it this way, even when he breaks the wrong direction you only beat him by a few feet, but when he gets it correct he could run 25 feet further in that 3 seconds. Even Willie Mays got to a point wear athletically his great instincts made patrolling CF sad. So if I had to pick between the you with the best instincts and Bolt with the best speed I'm picking Bolt.
this is a strange thread and argument...
maybe i'm missing something but i'm not sure why MikeT is represented as a 22 year old unsigned DT prospect, he's about 47 and weighs about 225 pounds? Not many guys that age are running a 5.0 40 yard dash. Tebow ran a 4.72 at the combine, Mike is not running a 5.0.
And why do we have Bolt taking a complete step the wrong way? Mike says that's not the point but it does kind of invalidate there whole "scientific" thought experiment with Bolt versus the DT prospect (why a DT prospect again?) Even the outfielder with the worst instincts is not taking steps in the completely opposite direction of what he should be.
He may break towards 8 o'clock instead of 10 o'clock (with 6 o'clock being straight towards the plate and midnight to the wall) and we could have a much more rational discussion breaking something like that down. A simpler way to approach this would be to look at times from home to first (representing speed as an hbd rating) and then see how those compare to those same players UZR and Dewan +/- ratings (representing range as an HBD rating). Limit it to just centerfielders. I understand the flaws with UZR and Dewan's system (and i do know UZR only accounts for balls you catch, which is more range+glove) but over a bigger sample size you could get a rudimentary grasp on just how much speed and range are tied together...this seems like a task for Fangraphs or one of the advanced sabermetric sites though...
Range is tied to speed, but I think MikeT overstates how much instincts trump speed. It seems to me that some of the HBD range/speed combos are a bit out of whack, especially for outfielders, where speed plays a greater role in range than for infielders. At the very least too many outfielders have speed ratings that don't correlate to strongly with their range ratings.
FYI average MLB times for home to first are about 4.3 for righties and 4.2 for ies. The namesake of this thread Bo Jackson could run a 3.65 from the right side, which is an elite time. Willy Taveras has run a 3.56 from the right side. Deion ran a 3.3 from the side. These guys are all borderline world class sprinters who may have had success in track had they dedicated themselves to it.