Looks pretty strange, doesn't it. The top team in DP% is mine, but the #2 team has a D+ guy at 2B and a C+ guy at SS. So clearly I'm not capturing all of the information that we need or my DP% numbers are way off. But here's some quick correlation data:
correlation of DP turned and MI Rg |
0.357933 |
correlation of DP turned and IF Rg |
0.08922 |
correlation of DP turned and 2B Rg |
0.37704 |
correlation of DP turned and SS Rg |
0.231536 |
correlation of DP turned and 3B Rg |
0.06136 |
correlation of DP turned and 1B Rg |
-0.39596 |
So, your 2B range clearly does have an impact... I'd say almost a 38% correlation is significant, even if it's not that strong. SS range is also significant though not as strong. 3B range is basically unrelated. What I don't get is 1B range. There is a strong
negative correlation between DPs turned and 1B range. Why is that? Maybe it has to do with fielder's choices - you get a lot of 3-6 and 3-4 plays that a poor range team would not have. But I am really not sure.
Clearly if you've read
Win Shares then you remember that the biggest impact on fielding in general and DPs specifically is the % of innings thrown by LH pitchers. I am going to need to figure that out at some point. Unfortunately it's not available in the team stats so I'll have to figure it by hand for each team. (Incidentally, the #2 team above - Wasted Players, Wasted ABs has only one LHP on their team)
Another factor is the park factors. I'm estimating doubles/triples and using that to derive runners on 1st. If a park has a big + for 2B/3B then the numbers will be skewed. Ideally I could find some way to account for that as well. Maybe I'll just plug it in and find the correlation to see if it means anything.
What else could be skewing the numbers? I'm not sure. This is all a house of cards anyway, using estimates to derive estimates and then trying to base conclusions on weak correlations. But it's a start.
We do also have K/9 and G/F data for each teams. I could try to modify the expected DP% based on those.
7/21/2010 12:14 PM (edited)