Posted by Jtpsops on 6/22/2010 11:15:00 AM (view original):
Not disagreeing with anyone about how the SIM works, but I will say again, if that's indeed how things go, then it is wrong, because in real life, "home run" balls at bigger parks do not all become lesser hits. You would have at least a handful of flyouts to the warning track, etc.

Actually what happens is a mix...  about half the would-be home-runs turn into outs, the other half stays hits, but not homeruns.  Theis type of analysis is often used for saberticians comparing hitters across eras.

I would point out that this kind of analysis assumes that players don't change their approach depending on circumstances (the park, weather or the era).  This of course is not true.  If modern homerun hitters played in the deadball, most would level off there swings in an attempt to hit line drives instead of fly balls.  Their homeruns and slugging would drop dramatically; their averages would drop too, but to a much lesser extent.

Right...so as I said earlier, generally speaking, if a guy went to Comerica and hit 50 balls that would be HR at a "neutral" park, you could probably expect to see something like 30 HR, 10 doubles/triples to the gap and 10 flyouts.  But you wouldn't see 30 HR and 20 doubles/triples.

I don't know how much the recent update affects this topic, but some time ago I loaded up a team with tried and  true HR hitters (Ruth, Gehrig etc.) and put them in the Astrodome. HR's were down dramatically for all of them. If I draft a HR hitter what do I give a fig if his HR's are converted to 2B's and 3B's (which I don't believe happens as much as people say). So if  I want HR's I put the team into a good HR park, simple. No?

Yes.

The thing to remember is that while the hitting tree and ballpark effects are linked, they are also separate.

So, first the determination is made as to whether it is a hit or an out (combining the batter, pitcher, and singles modifier), then if it is a hit, the type of hit is determined (combing the batter, pitcher, and XBH modifiers).

The dimension of the park determining how man lost HRs are turned into 2Bs, 3Bs, 1Bs, or outs is already included in the other modifiers. The Astrodome and Comerica, for example: At the Astrodome Those HRs are turned almost exclusively to outs and 2Bs, the out portion is reflected in the hit modifier at the beginning. At Comerica, the HRs are turned into other hits, most likely 1Bs an 3Bs...

The sim is taking "it" into effect, it just gets broken up into two different segments of the hitting tree rather than having the ballpark effects all lumped in at the same point.