When I have a player who has overperformed more than 25% over his real life OPS by game 80, i target him as a possible drop if something attractive comes up on the waiver wire. I've played enough games to know that things revert to the mean over the course of a full season, and sometimes the over achiever will hurt you in the 2nd half of the season. don't always act on this theory, but do consider it as the situation presents itself.

Wouldn't have expected that from you.  He's likely to drop, sure, but he's likely to hit to your projections the rest of the way.  Why dump him if you liked him in the first place?

I've done exactly what redwingscup just described. It's not a drop llama, it's a falling rock....

Again, and a I trust this was clear, I use this as a possible tool. It's an evaluation method that I don't always act on. If nothing on the waiver wire is there that I believe will better my team, I will retain the over achiever. Sometimes I do it, often I don't. rembemer, if the guy has played significantly better than I had hoped or expected through 1/2 of the season, the drop in the second could be precipitous, presuming he will revert to the mean.

But "revert to the mean" doesn't mean "play as far below average in the second half as he was above average in the first half."

Revert to the mean refers to the fact that he will likely play "as expected" across the second half, which pulls his overall numbers down from their peak.

If you flip a coin 100 teams, and in the first 50 flips you get 30 heads (60%), you shouldn't expect to get only 20 heads in the next 50 to "balance it out."  You should expect 25 heads in the next 50, which will give you an overall average of 55%.

Right - If his true level is .270/.366/.420 and he puts up a .330/.428/.600 line in the first half, he's still most likely to hit .270/.366/.420 the rest of the way, not [insert random Neifi Perez slash line here].

I understand using the waiver wire during the season.  I always make a move or two in OLs... more if I'm desperate.  So I'm not knocking that aspect.

This is a move I've done very rarely. Depends on who is over-performing, who is available on the wire and where I am in the standings, which are a lot of variables. It is more of a mathematical hunch. It can work but the risks involved are obvious.