NAC power-rankings for season #52.

Last (5) seasons results... or, what have ya done to me, er I mean for me lately.

#1. Top Dog = Castleton State  -        138 wins, 21 NT games and a 17 total RPI.
#2. Big Dog = Thomas  -                      126 wins, 20 NT games and    28 total RPI.
#3. Pretty Big Dog - Lasell  -                109 wins, 13 NT games and   88 total RPI.
#4. Decent sized Dog - MMA -              105 wins, 12 NT games (Title), 255 RPI.
#5. Above average sized Dog - Husson - 103 Wins, 12 NT games, 171 RPI.
#6. Pretty average Dog  - Mt Ida            102 Wins, 9 NT games, and 141 RPI.

#7. Just a Dog  -  Becker  -                     78 wins, 8 NT games and a 387 RPI.
#8. Kinda smallish sized Dog - Elms  - 75 wins, 4 NT games, and a 309 RPI.
#9. Pretty small Dog - Johnson St  -     51 wins, 4 NT games, and a huge 940 RPI.
#10 Wienie Dog  -  Presque Isle   -       71 wins, not made the NT but 4 PIT games and a 567 RPI.
#11. Little Smokie sized Dog  - Salem St. 52 Wins, 1 NT game, and a godzilla sized RPI of 945.
#12. We looked but couldn't find a dog - Farmington - 42 wins...... hasn't smelled the postseason since the Eisenhower administration left office, and a RPI of 770.

well enough of my pep-talk for Floyd

Posted by mizzou77 on 10/12/2011 5:53:00 PM (view original):
NAC power-rankings for season #52.

Last (5) seasons results... or, what have ya done to me, er I mean for me lately.

#1. Top Dog = Castleton State  -        138 wins, 21 NT games and a 17 total RPI.
#2. Big Dog = Thomas  -                      126 wins, 20 NT games and    28 total RPI.
#3. Pretty Big Dog - Lasell  -                109 wins, 13 NT games and   88 total RPI.
#4. Decent sized Dog - MMA -              105 wins, 12 NT games (Title), 255 RPI.
#5. Above average sized Dog - Husson - 103 Wins, 12 NT games, 171 RPI.
#6. Pretty average Dog  - Mt Ida            102 Wins, 9 NT games, and 141 RPI.

#7. Just a Dog  -  Becker  -                     78 wins, 8 NT games and a 387 RPI.
#8. Kinda smallish sized Dog - Elms  - 75 wins, 4 NT games, and a 309 RPI.
#9. Pretty small Dog - Johnson St  -     51 wins, 4 NT games, and a huge 940 RPI.
#10 Wienie Dog  -  Presque Isle   -       71 wins, not made the NT but 4 PIT games and a 567 RPI.
#11. Little Smokie sized Dog  - Salem St. 52 Wins, 1 NT game, and a godzilla sized RPI of 945.
#12. We looked but couldn't find a dog - Farmington - 42 wins...... hasn't smelled the postseason since the Eisenhower administration left office, and a RPI of 770.

well enough of my pep-talk for Floyd

We're one of those dogs that get toted around in a purse.  Oh, the humiliation.

Final Season #52

1.	Robert Galloway	Sr.	PF	Castleton St.	52	33	77	67	66	98	21	51	22	74	79	100	C	740
2.	Pat Phillips	Sr.	C	Lasell	70	47	95	50	51	96	10	24	34	68	86	71	C	702
3.	Edward Zaltz	Sr.	SG	Castleton St.	71	80	9	76	26	1	51	81	71	56	85	94	A-	701
4.	Anthony Foster	So.	PF	Husson	60	53	69	44	52	60	52	50	16	64	84	90	C+	694
5.	Patrick Duke	Sr.	PG	Johnson St.	58	87	2	66	6	3	68	95	92	84	90	35	C+	686
6.	Gerard Hostetter	Sr.	C	Castleton St.	76	39	74	70	48	80	34	28	38	52	78	68	D	685
7.	Fletcher McCrosky	Sr.	SG	Johnson St.	85	47	36	85	3	79	64	41	50	58	81	54	C+	683
8.	Charles Richardson	Jr.	C	Husson	65	32	98	49	66	73	16	17	8	81	82	96	B-	683
9.	Joseph Richmond	Sr.	PF	Mount Ida	45	62	46	50	61	89	33	39	23	66	82	87	B	683
10.	Virgil Whitaker	Sr.	SF	Maine, Presque Isle	44	62	37	54	36	30	76	51	56	84	76	73	B-	679
11.	Charles Brescia	Sr.	C	Johnson St.	48	45	90	57	79	35	3	40	50	75	84	71	B-	677
12.	Justin Travis	Sr.	SF	Johnson St.	64	75	51	50	33	21	98	48	44	71	86	35	C-	676
13.	Charles Harland	Sr.	C	Salem St.	71	29	84	57	74	53	29	16	50	74	71	63	C	671
14.	Raymond Williams	Jr.	C	Husson	52	24	95	49	73	75	15	32	15	69	72	99	D+	670
15.	Lester Choe	Sr.	PG	Husson	57	74	11	59	15	45	71	61	44	85	97	43	B	662
16.	Kelly Allen	Jr.	PG	Husson	54	88	1	51	2	17	60	86	78	60	90	71	B	658
17.	Manuel Phipps	Sr.	C	Mount Ida	26	37	99	27	82	99	1	26	34	81	94	49	B-	655
18.	Dustin Wills	Jr.	SG	Thomas	84	49	50	94	27	32	42	36	32	66	86	57	B	655
19.	Keith Cooper	Sr.	PG	Lasell	58	84	1	82	6	8	49	78	46	76	86	79	B	653
20.	Jerry McElyea	Sr.	SG	Lasell	44	80	5	58	5	13	86	54	73	65	88	80	C-	651
21.	John Jantzen	Sr.	SF	Maine, Farmington	52	62	40	60	29	29	57	54	60	64	82	57	B-	646
22.	Edward Orbison	Jr.	SG	Husson	73	83	28	55	4	28	66	66	54	65	81	41	B-	644
23.	Scott Auld	Jr.	C	Castleton St.	54	32	93	48	87	51	13	31	36	53	75	59	C-	632
24.	John Radke	Sr.	SF	Maine Maritime Academy	60	43	41	47	23	35	70	53	54	70	80	56	B-	632
25.	Dwight Rummel	Sr.	PG	Lasell	37	94	1	27	18	8	97	74	60	71	99	43	B	629

Continue a silly little thing I've done the past couple of seasons.

Next year's returning players sorted by "talent" (total rating subtracting work ethic, durability, stamina)

School	Returning	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT	TALENT
Husson	10	54.0	51.1	50.6	47.2	35.5	42.9	36.9	42.0	34.1	53.4	75.7	73.7	C+	597.1	394.3
Mount Ida	9	47.8	56.7	34.6	50.2	26.1	44.7	46.4	42.8	44.4	51.4	76.8	55.2	C+	577.1	393.7
Thomas	10	60.1	50.9	40.3	62.0	28.1	31.7	33.6	38.7	36.0	48.1	74.6	59.5	C+	563.6	381.4
Castleton State	9	47.3	49.4	42.7	46.8	35.6	41.6	37.0	39.3	39.0	48.7	74.1	47.0	C+	548.4	378.7
Lasell	7	51.6	38.3	56.9	47.7	45.1	42.1	18.1	27.3	23.7	42.3	73.4	44.4	C-	511.0	350.9
UMPI	6	39.0	36.3	43.8	35.3	34.2	54.7	31.3	38.5	34.8	61.8	75.7	51.5	C	537.0	348.0
Elms	10	48.0	35.2	43.9	53.1	38.1	34.6	24.7	31.2	31.6	41.6	73.5	47.6	C	503.1	340.4
Becker	12	37.3	38.3	42.2	37.3	35.9	36.5	35.5	35.6	32.1	61.3	76.8	47.6	C+	516.4	329.6
Salem State	11	39.5	44.2	34.6	42.2	24.4	40.3	28.3	34.9	35.7	57.1	73.1	58.0	C+	512.2	324.0
Johnson State	6	40.5	48.8	37.2	38.7	27.7	35.8	30.8	33.5	29.0	43.2	73.2	58.5	C	496.8	322.0
UMF	8	34.4	40.4	40.5	25.1	29.1	44.1	36.6	32.3	31.0	41.0	72.4	61.9	C	488.8	313.5
MMA	7	29.3	37.9	42.7	29.4	30.7	37.4	27.6	36.6	30.1	44.9	70.3	54.1	C-	471.0	301.7

I'm a bit surprised at how little (compared to expectations I had) that Husson stands out.  Husson is the team to beat next season in the NAC and on the shortlist for teams to beat in the entire D3 world.  But based on talent, Mount Ida is right there with them and I don't think the returning 10 vs. returning 9 is going to be that big of a deal.  Husson is quick, fast, can defend and score quite well and has a jaw-dropping rebounding rating.

Husson should win the North although with 3 championships in a row and 12 the past 14 seasons, the North championship still goes through Castleton, Vermont.  (Oh yeah, they are also defending D3 champs.)  Castleton isn't the most talented team but they look to be the most well-rounded.  I expect Husson to win the North; I wouldn't be surprised if Castleton does.

Mount Ida should be able to hold onto the South title returning 10 from the team that won the South this past season without too much trouble.  Mount Ida is awfully talented and the team speed is pretty amazing.  Ida's Achilles may be rebounding but I also anticipate that will be somewhat addressed in recruiting.   The potential threat to a repeat most likely is Thomas.  The two teams are a bit of a contrast.  Mount Ida has a bunch of amazing scorers on the roster and Thomas doesn't have a single one.  Thomas might still have something to say about who wins the South, however, because of a rather ridiculous average rating of 60 athleticism and 62 defense for the returning 10 players.  As good as those two numbers are, Thomas will have the problem of not being able to score and in addition to that is going to have some weaknesses in the backcourt.  I would guess that the weaknesses are too much for the athleticism/defense to overcome but I've given up on making predictions for Thomas at this point.

This past season, the NAC had a "Big 6".  This upcoming season it might just be a Big 4.  If another team cracks through to make the NAC a Big 5, it probably is Lasell.   Lasell only returns 7 and while they are all pretty good, I see a roster that has amazing depth in the front court and a very good point guard but also has a shooting guard that isn't great by Lasell's standards and I don't see a SF on the roster.  Carl's a good enough of a coach to pull off some magic but right now I think he's outside the Big 4.  I do think Lasell shouldn't have to worry much about  making the NT.

After Lasell, I think everything else is going to need some luck to get to the Big Dance.  I think Tyber has the best shot at it with Elms.  Returning 10, I do think Tyber should at be able to make it to the postseason next season although the NT vs. the PIT might depend on if Elms can knock off the Big Four once or twice in season.  Becker and Salem State return a bunch but both teams are pretty young and I'm not sure if the talent  is good enough to get some relatively inexperienced teams to the postseason.

Johnson State, MMA, and UMF all look to take some lumps next season with teams that are both shallow and a bit devoid of talent.  Hopefully the $6,000+ in extra recruiting money allows them to bring in some good players for the future.

Final Season #52

	School	Coach	Conf. W-L	Overall W-L	Home W-L	Road W-L	Top 25 W-L	Last 10	STRK	RPI	SOS
	#1 Castleton St.	rdb03161987	14-2	27-7	8-0	12-6	11-5	8-2	W6	2	5
	#7 Lasell	carlbuzz	13-3	25-7	9-1	12-4	4-5	7-3	L1	6	11
	#16 Johnson St.	bieberfever	12-4	22-10	6-2	12-6	6-7	7-3	L1	9	4
	Husson	tianyi7886	8-8	18-12	6-2	10-8	6-7	5-5	L1	18	2
	Elms	tyber90	5-11	8-19	3-7	5-11	0-7	4-6	L1	153	24
	Becker	ixolabrat	0-16	0-27	0-8	0-18	0-7	0-10	L27	320	30

Castleton State would be what a National Champ looks like.
Thomas would be what the Runner-up looks like, as they played each other.
We put 4 into the E8.
C -State, Thomas, Mt Ida, and Johnson St, who had to play Thomas at that point.

Castleton St -  Champ  =  $18,000
Thomas       -  rnr up      =    18,000
Mt Ida           - E8              =    12,000
Johnson St - E8              =    12,000
Lasell          - S16             =      9,000
Husson       - 2nd rnd      =      6,000
MMA             - PIT              =      1,000
                                    -------------------------- 
                                     $76,000 smackers

Thomas Senior Review Season 52

Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
Columbus Kummer	Fr.	PG	12	66	1	29	1	1	55	47	41	60	6	58	C+	418
Columbus Kummer	Sr.	PG	50	95	2	32	2	4	86	89	62	77	77	50	B	626
Craig Kelley	So.	PF	27	42	44	25	25	38	24	32	51	42	65	37	C	452
Craig Kelley	Sr.	PF	42	53	60	35	36	51	39	44	52	33	69	58	C+	572

Columbus Kummer

Yr.	GP	GS	MIN	FG%	FG3%	FT%	OREB	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	PF	PTS
52	35	35	27.1	.450	.427	.812	0.5	1.7	2.3	2.6	1.2	0.0	2.2	23.8
51	34	34	26.4	.491	.430	.701	0.4	1.3	3.1	1.8	1.0	0.0	2.1	14.4
50	32	0	13.7	.387	.365	.949	0.1	0.2	1.5	1.5	0.6	0.0	1.7	4.1
49	31	0	6.0	.200	.200	.667	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6	1.0
Averages				.451	.417	.787	0.3	0.9	1.9	1.6	0.7	0.0	1.7	11.2

Thoughts at time of Signing: Kummer really doesn't need analysis.  The ratings tell the story.  I can't offer anything to supplement what you see, my assistant coach decided to report on the exact opposite of what I asked of him.  Even if all of the high potential categories are of the low-high variety, I think Kummer should be a very good offensive player.  He's also going to be one of the weakest defensive players I have recruited in an awfully long while.  My defense was my weakness last season so I really am ambivalent about signing a player that is likely going to make my defense worse.

Thoughts at Graduation: My conclusion on Kummer ended up being correct but I might have a bit fortunate that he developed into a very good offensive player.  As it turned out, Kummer had a number of high-high potential categories and turned out to be a real scoring asset.  If they had only been low-high, maybe not so much.

Kummer leaves Thomas as a 1st team All-NAC player and 1st team All-American.  In the Thomas Record Books, he'll finish as the #9 scorer in Thomas' history.  More importantly, Kummer is tied for #1 on the games played list as Thomas seasons 49-52 equaled the postseason success of the 44-47 group.

I thought Kummer would be a liability on the defensive end but the team and individual stats suggest that was not the proper assessment.  That said, if Kummer's athleticism would have peaked at 32 (and I didn't know it wouldn't), I do think he might have cost me some points/wins.

Kummer all but maxed out.  He might have had a point or two left in him in both athleticism and ball handling but that's probably it.

Going back in time I think I probably saw Kummer as being a B grade signing.  Now, I think he's at least A- and possibly A.



Craig Kelley

Yr.	GP	GS	MIN	FG%	FG3%	FT%	OREB	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	PF	PTS
52	34	0	10.2	.421	.000	.792	0.8	2.0	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.9	2.0
51	31	0	4.9	.429	.000	.731	0.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.6	1.4
50	32	0	11.1	.500	.400	.813	0.5	1.5	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	1.0	1.8
Averages				.449	.250	.773	0.6	1.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.8	1.7

Thoughts at time of Signing: Probably the recruit I'm most happy with.  Long-time NAC coaches might remember that I was a bit worried three seasons ago about having a lopsided class structure.  (I was looking at having 0 seniors, 4 juniors, 4 sophomores, 4 freshmen.)  I didn't like the idea of being so lopsided and wanted to get it more balanced.  I'm not all the way there yet, but Kelley brings things really close.  I ended up signing 2 senior transfers two season ago which started the process and then fiddled around with redshirts in a way that helped balance even more.  Signing Kelley as a sophomore juco player means I now have 3 seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores, 3 freshmen, 1 redshirt freshman.  I really wanted to get a sophomore juco to get this balance so just by signing him, I feel good about him.

But Kelley also has an awful lot of potential.  With only three seasons and a so-so work ethic of 42, I'm not sure he's going to get there.  The one negative that really stands out is the 25 defense rating and only has average room for gowth.  But he also has 6 skill categories of high potential.  He's a really well balanced player and while I'm not sure he will be a good PF, I think he can be a SF and possibly even a backup guard.  The passing rating is his only low potential one, but it is already at 51.  The ball handing is high potential and should get to 50.  That isn't a great guard, but not a bad guy to have 4th on the depth chart if I get into foul trouble.  (It's much better than what I often have resorted to having.)

The other nice thing about Kelley is that at least short term, he helps solve my backup SF problem.  Dustin Wills is supposed to be my backup SF and while I love his potential, he isn't there yet.  Not even close.  So Kelley will be a nice stopgap backup while I wait for Willis to develop.

Ultimately, I'm not expecting much out of Kelley with just the three seasons.  But he really does fill some voids and probably is the best recruit I signed in terms of thinking big picture and how he fits into the concept of "team".

Thoughts at Graduation: Kelley may have had 6 categories of high potential but between the work ethic and my reluctance to play him (each problem feeding the other ...), he didn't come close to being the player he could have been.  I'm really now sure what to say about Kelley, looking at him now he does look like a really nice well balanced player but for whatever the reason I didn't get him minutes.  As a freshman, he really was the nice small forward stopgap that I mentioned.  I don't think I had a second small forward and he had a role in Thomas not taking a step backward in season 50.  After season 50, he got passed on the depth chart at small forward and while its nice to be well balanced, he wasn't a good enough PF to be a post player.  For the Thomas team, he actually was more of the backup guard that I noted when I signed him.  But even in that role, he really didn't get playing time.  With just 853 minutes on the court, Kelley probably played less than any player I have signed for Thomas in the past 30 seasons.

Ultimately the most important thing about Kelley was that I wanted a JUCO to balance the classes and he did that for me.  Anything he contributed on the court would be gravy.  And while he didn't get a bunch of playing time, I'm not sure Thomas was hurt when he did take the court.

With all the unfilled potential, it would have been much better for Kelley to go to a team that would have played him.  Thomas just wasn't that team.

I think I probably saw Kelley as a A- signing, right now I think B and that B is essentially because he helped balance the roster.

Name	Pos.	GPA	FG%	FT%	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	TOT
Timothy Hawks	PG	2.44	48.2	68.9	42	58	1	29	1	15	18	47	66	70	74	24	445
Kenny Quirk	C	3.17	30.7	61.7	68	15	55	66	50	24	1	28	10	26	57	42	442
Average		2.81	39.4	65.3	55	36	28	47	25	19	9	37	38	48	65	33	443

Spent 7.5k trying to knock off a sim, and after I finally succeeded in being way ahead, I switch and sign Hawks for $130. 

Beginning Season #53

1.	Husson	12	55	49	48	48	34	40	33	42	35	53	72	68	C+	578
2.	Mount Ida	12	44	54	33	48	25	40	46	43	45	49	70	54	C+	551
3.	Thomas	12	57	48	43	58	30	36	31	35	35	49	71	55	C	547
4.	Becker	12	41	43	41	41	35	36	39	39	32	58	75	50	C	530
5.	Castleton St.	12	48	50	36	47	30	36	35	40	39	49	70	50	C	529
6.	Salem St.	12	33	44	38	34	27	41	33	34	35	58	71	57	C+	505
7.	Lasell	12	47	44	43	42	33	40	29	36	28	43	70	44	C	497
8.	Elms	12	47	36	41	51	33	32	26	32	32	46	70	49	C	494
9.	Maine, Farmington	12	32	46	35	22	25	39	39	37	33	43	73	60	C	482
10.	Johnson St.	12	38	41	36	36	29	34	32	34	27	47	69	53	C	477
11.	Maine, Presque Isle	12	40	35	33	39	25	30	24	29	34	58	68	49	C-	462
12.	Maine Maritime Academy	12	37	40	33	32	22	30	27	34	32	47	66	54	C-	452

UMF potentials...

Name	Yr	Pos	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
Clinton Bergmeyer	Fr.	PF	25	35	50	10	40	64	38	25	15	25	83	69	0.619	479
Robert Lurea	Fr.	PF	45	39	36	25	22	22	22	28	39	47	67	64	0.571	456
Kevin Pettiford	Jr	PG	38	45	17	26	2	42	54	43	41	37	72	34	0.600	451
William Critchfield	Fr.	PG	28	64	1	22	1	1	55	48	38	78	75	28	0.730	439

Or lack thereof.

Thomas Recruiting Season 53

Overall Grade: C- / Incomplete

No excuses but I have an excuse.  Thanksgiving ruined my recruiting.  I missed out on the vast majority of recruiting cycles and knowing that adjusted my recruiting in a way that I ended up making decisions I would not have had I known I would be around to make all the recruiting cycles.  In the end, things probably worked out ok although I ended up with likely roll players instead of stars.

With two open spots in recruiting my top priority was to sign a small forward since I make a real effort to sign one every other season to keep that position balanced.  The other position was not going to be terrible important since the signing would be either the 5^th guard or 5^th post on the roster.  I’d take the best player possible but all things equal I was leaning toward a post player because I had redshirted Cory Bjorklund last season and therefore already had a freshman guard on the roster.

Since I knew I would be away for most of recruiting I went after folks I normally would have bypassed on the first cycle.  That ended up being a mistake.  I went after two players.  My SF target was Tony Kiger.  He was a fine player but I was concerned about going after a 430 player.  I figured he was not just available to A+ schools but to other schools as well.  I also found what looked to be a good post player in Gary Williams.  As a 419 player, I had the same concerns about him being available to others as well.  But I went ahead and rolled the dice on both.  I knew I would miss the next few recruiting cycles but none of the other coaches knew that and since I had A+ prestige and the extra $6,000 from the NAC tourney money, I thought some coaches might know they shouldn’t pick a fight with me.

That didn’t work out well with Kiger since two schools jumped in on him.  I didn’t even bother to fight since I knew at least one school would be offering a promised start based on roster composition and I figured both would.  I wanted to redshirt whatever SF I signed so Kiger immediately went from being my top option to no option as well.  I ended up going after a local Maine SF in Robert Holt that I purposefully ignored the first cycle.  He was a 384 recruit that I knew would be available to every team and I figured somebody would have gone after him.  I was hoping it would have been a NAC team that nabbed him, when nobody did and Kiger was off my list, I switched over to Holt.  Holt wasn’t going to be as good as Kiger but he looked to be promising enough.

Gary Williams ended up having a ton of high-high potential so while Holt only would have been a so-so recruit, Williams was going to be a stud. I was pretty happy about how things would work, especially so given my lack on online access.

That seemed to be just fine for the next 36 hours.  Checked in on things Thanksgiving morning and things were good.  Then signing happened and I only ended up with one player.  I ended up getting poached on Thanksgiving afternoon.  That was a bit annoying.  I also could have avoided it had I thrown all my cash at Williams beforehand but I didn’t stop to think about doing that.

 

So after losing out on Williams I ended up recruiting off my phone (lots of fun!) and ended up with Al Brogden.  I’m not in love with him but he’s probably better than I think.  The FSS report on him noted he had some attention from W. Virginia Wesleyan and that’s khook19’s D2 program that is one of the best in Allen.  If an A+ D2 team was looking at Brogden, I’m probably doing just fine with him.

Considering the disaster that was last season, I think things went pretty well this time.  I made some mistakes in jumping in early on recruits knowing I wouldn’t be around to defend but I’m not sure there is a great way to handle being offline during recruiting.  So not the best class, but not too bad with the circumstances.

So here's a look at the season 53 recruits ...

Robert Holt
SF | 6'+" | 217 lbs. | 2.91 GPA
Fort Kent Community HS | Fort Kent, ME
Athleticism - 51 (low)
Speed - 30 (high)
Rebounding - 38
Defense - 33 (high)
Shot Blocking - 25 (high)
Low-post - 39
Perimeter - 12 (high)
Ball Handling - 17 (high)
Passing - 26 (high)
Work Ethic - 57
Stamina - 54 (high)
Durability - 2 (low)
FT Shooting – D+

Al Brogden
C | 6'10" | 227 lbs. | 2.9 GPA
Harnett Central HS | Angier, NC
Athleticism - 23 (high)
Speed - 26 (high)
Rebounding - 68 (high)
Defense - 35 (high)
Shot Blocking - 53 (low)
Low-post - 60 (low)
Perimeter - 14 (low)
Ball Handling - 9 (low)
Passing - 20
Work Ethic - 46
Stamina - 69 (low)
Durability - 42 (high)
FT Shooting - F (high)


Robert Holt -- More than anything I wanted a SF recruit that I would be able to redshirt.  Being from Maine, Holt was cheap enough that I could risk informing him of it during recruiting and be ok.  And it turns out Holt was fine the first go around.  Holt won’t be a stud but he should be plenty good.  Six high potential categories for a SF is solid.   The other three aren’t too bad.  Athleticism is low potential but starts at 51.  Rebounding and low post are 38 and 39.  With a bit of luck, those can get to 50.  Don’t know about the high speed rating but defense and passing are low-high and block, perimeter, and ball handling are high-high.

There is no guarantee I’m going to get every category there but it looks like I might have a player who is at 50 in every single skill category.  That’s pretty good.  I also might not get a single category to a 60 rating and if that is the case, he won’t be a star.

I’m not too worried but worth noting that the durability is starting at 2 and is low potential.  If he gets a serious injury, I’m guessing I lose him for the season.  I’d also be willing to bet a tidy sum that never happens.  (Remind me when I’m whining about this three seasons from now.)  Stamina is also high-high and that’s sort of important since he starts at 54.

Al Brogden -- A pretty nifty player for a late signing.  He has some limits but I think he’ll be a nice roll player for Thomas.  Only did one evaluation on him so all I know is that his athleticism and rebounding are high-high.  Combine the high-high athleticism with the something-high speed and I think Brogden will be quicker and faster than most D3 post players.  He should come close to being a 99 rebounder and should have a pretty good defensive rating to match.  That will play.  Low potential in shot blocking and low post is disappointing but both start above 50 so he might be serviceable in each.  I’m not looking for Brogden to be a scorer but with his rebound rating he might do a nice job of cleaning up the garbage.  Stamina is a bit of a concern with the 69 being low potential.  In Thomas’ zone defense, I’m hoping it doesn’t matter too much.

THOMAS TEAM OUTLOOK SEASON 53

Team Offense: Flex
Team Defense: 2-3 Zone

Likely Starting Lineup, (Season 52 Stats)
PG: John Bradley, Jr (30 GS, 8.3 pt, 3.7 ast, 1.2 stl)
SG: Arthur Leininger, Sr (0 GS, 2.3 pt, 32% FG, 21% FG3)
SF: Dustin Wills, Sr (31 GS, 9.7 pt, 6.1 reb)
PF: Martin Paiz, Sr (31 GS, 10.2 pt, 7.2 reb, 1.0 blk, 1.2 stl)
C: Eric Kerney, Jr (10 GS, 2.6 pt, 5.5 reb)

1st guard off the bench: Dennis Myers, So (5 GS, 2.4 pt)
1st post off the bench: Bryan Vaden, So (29 GS, 5.3 pt, 53 FG%, 6.1 reb)

Summary

Coming off back-to-back Final Four showings in what were widely expected to be rebuilding seasons in Waterville, Thomas will be looking for a threepeat showing in season 53.  Most of the pieces are in place for a third run but nagging suspicions about the guard play will linger as the season progresses and it will take a true breakthrough season from Arthur Leininger to shut up critics of the team.

Thomas has a chance to be one of the elite defensive teams in D3.  Thomas has good speed mixed with excellent athleticism and defensive skill and should win the battle of the boards in most games.  Lack of shotblockers in the paint might slow Thomas down a bit but the rest of the strengths should be enough to minimize the lack of rejected shots.  On the offensive side there will be more questions than answers, at least at the start of the season.  Thomas has a very good point guard but nobody else on the roster that has good ball distribution skills.  That one player is one more than can shoot the deep ball – Thomas currently has zero deep threats on the roster and will be counting on Arthur Leininger and his career 17% three point shooting to keep defenses from loading the paint.  Then again, defenses might not have any huge need to load up inside since Thomas does not currently look to be much better at scoring in the low post.  There is scoring talent on the roster but at the start of season 53, coach kujayhawk has done a poor job of harnessing it.

Thomas has an excellent chance of being one of the top dozen teams in D3.  Thomas has a real chance of making it to a third straight Final Four.  Thomas does not seem to have much of a shot of winning a North Atlantic Conference title.  As good as Thomas looks to be, Mount Ida seems to be a notch or two ahead at most spots on the roster.

Guards

After leading the Terriers to 28 wins last season as a sophomore starting point guard, John Bradley will be expected to repeat last season’s performance.  He has a good shot at doing so as he still has a lot of room for improvement in his game.  Only his low post play still has high potential but if he can develop that skill he might be a 1^st team all North Atlantic player.  Bradley never will be able to shoot jumpers on a consistent basis but he’s beginning to show some real talent in the post.  Bradley also has normal room for growth in athleticism, speed, defense, and passing.  He’s currently a very good point guard.  He has a chance to be great.

Arthur Leininger has been a terrible guard and has a chance to be decent.  His shooting woes have been documented but he did play 17 minutes a game for a Thomas team that performed quite well last season.  Leininger still has a lot of growth and for a senior that likely means talent will go untapped.  Leininger currently can’t hit a three point shot if his life depended on it but he does have a perimeter rating of 68 and is high potential.  He won’t max out his shooting skills but by season’s end he might be a tiny threat.  In addition to the shooting potential, Leininger has average room for growth still in speed, defense, ball handling, and passing.   Given that Thomas desperately needs outside shooting and almost as much needs another passing guard, Thomas’s success probably is counting on Leininger as much as anybody.  Given his three season track record, that’s a very scary proposal.

Dennis Myers will be the first guard off the bench.  Right now Myers does nothing particularly well but he also does not have any holes in his game.  As a sophomore, Myers’ athleticism is already close to peaking but he has average room for growth in speed and defense and has large room for improvement in his shooting, ball handling and passing.  John Bradley is expected to play major minutes at the point for Thomas but Myers ability to run the show when Bradley gets a breather will be important in conference play.

Cory Bjorklund is the worst passing guard seen in the past 30 seasons of Thomas Terrier basketball.  That said, he does have big upside in his passing skills and he might only be making one or two cringe worthy passes a game by season’s end compared to the half dozen or so he currently makes per game.  Thomas desperately needs outside shooting and Bjorklund has the potential to be that guy but there might not be enough time in the season to turn his 52 perimeter rating into a good jump shooter.  In addition to his high room for growth in shooting and passing, Bjorklund also can dramatically improve his athleticism and ball handling while also having some upside with speed.  The redshirt freshman is already maxed out in defense but with a 62 rating should be just fine on the defensive end.

Small Forwards

It took 4 seasons but the massive potential of Dustin Wills finally translated to basketball skill last season.  Averaging 10 and 6 with amazing defense, Wills will be looking to improve on those numbers as a senior.  Wills won’t be able get much better.  He still has some decent room for improvement in speed and defense but everything other talent  according to coaches is pretty much at his full potential.

Backing up Dustin Wills will be Lee Brown.  Given Brown’s guard skills and the weakness of the Thomas backcourt, Brown might see as much time spelling Bradley and Leininger as he does giving Wills a breather.  As a sophomore, Brown is already a nifty player but word around the North Atlantic is that he could be the conference’s next superstar.  Brown won’t be able to improve much on his jumper but he has the ability to vastly improve his speed, defense, low post game, ball handling, and passing.  And if he doesn’t spend all his time trying to improve those aspects of his game, he should be able to also improve his athleticism and rebounding somewhat.  Brown has a decent case to be starting for Thomas but will need to wait one more season for Dustin Wills to graduate before fully getting his chance to shine.

Big Men

Coaches from the North Atlantic liked what they saw in Martin Paiz, selecting his as 2^nd team All-Conference.  The national media liked him a lot more, choosing him to last season’s 3^rd team All-American team.  This season the senior is 1^st team preseason All-American and will need to improve his stat line if he is to keep that honor at season’s end.  Paiz is mostly a finished product so it will be difficult to improve much on the numbers.  Paiz has some ability to improve his rebounding, shot blocking, and low post game.  He also has the ability to somewhat improve his passing skills and since Thomas’ guards lack passing skills, don’t be surprised to see Thomas often run their offense through Paiz.

Eric Kerney was in the middle of a bit of controversy last season as the expected starting center found himself on the bench for most of last season.  Rumor had it that coach kujayhawk was so desperate to land center recruit Bryan Vaden, he went ahead and promised Kerney’s starting spot to Vaden.  The snub did not stop Kerney from improving his game and he appears to have won the starting nod as a junior.  Despite last season’s improvement, Kerney still has a lot of room to improve as a player.  No skills are maxed out and Kerney seems to have extraordinary room for development in his rebounding and low post game.  Since Kerney’s low post skills are currently embarrassingly poor for a college player, do not expect him to be setting any scoring records in his Junior campaign.

After starting as a true freshman, Bryan Vaden will have to get used to entering games off the bench.  Vaden came to campus with a lot of talent and as he enters his sophomore campaign, there is only limited amounts of improvement.  Only Vaden’s speed is truly limited but all his other skill categories seem to just have normal amounts of improvement which for a true sophomore is a bit surprising.  Thomas’ coaches aren’t as surprised by the lack of areas for big development noting that when a player has as much work ethic as Vaden has, often players will see their biggest improvements as true freshman even as they adjust to college life.

As a four year Junior, Clinton Schweiger would be starting for 80% of Division Three schools but he finds himself as the second big off the bench at Thomas.  Despite being good enough to start right now, Schweiger has the ability to get much better.  Only his athleticism is limited and his low post game still shows great room for improvement.  With a current low post rating of 67, if he can fully develop his down low skills, Thomas may have found its first dominant inside scorer since season 50.

Playing as a true freshman, don’t expect Al Brogden to see the court much.  Instead, Brogden will take full advantage of practices against Paiz-Kerney-Vaden-Schweiger as he looks to improve his game for when he might see court time as a sophomore.

 

THOMAS NON-CONFERENCE SEASON 53
Prediction: 8-2
RPI: 14    

Predicted Wins: Centenary, Ithica, Old Westbury, Framington State, Virginia Wesleyan, Kalamazoo
Predicted Losses:  [none]
Toss Up: Luther, Puget Sound, St. Mary’s, Connecticut

Despite the 8-2 prediction, I’ll be disappointed if I am not 9-0 going into the last game against Connecticut.  Despite me categorizing that one as a toss up, I do think Connecticut has the goods on Thomas once again.  I think the Terriers can keep it close but probably lose to johnsensing in the final minutes.

I predict 8-2 since I would be lucky to be 9-0 going into the Connecticut game.  Thomas probably will be favored in the first nine – maybe not against Puget Sound – but the chances of coming out on top of all nine are less than 50-50.

So I probably stub one toe somewhere along the way and Connecticut will bruise another.  Overall, however, I think Thomas should be in fine shape entering conference play.

Pre-Conference All North Atlantic Conference Teams (Season 53)

First Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Husson	Kelly Allen	Sr.	PG	55	88	1	52	2	16	64	88	82	60	88	74	B	670
SG	Husson	Edward Orbison	Sr.	SG	74	84	29	55	4	29	67	68	55	65	77	41	B	648
SF	Thomas	Dustin Wills	Sr.	SG	84	51	53	95	28	34	44	38	33	66	86	58	B	670
PF	Husson	Charles Richardson	Sr.	C	65	32	99	49	66	75	16	18	8	81	79	95	C+	683
C	Mount Ida	Tim King	Jr.	C	69	30	74	85	70	80	9	18	7	65	68	41	D+	616

Second Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Thomas	John Bradley	Jr.	PG	47	95	2	45	3	38	33	75	77	56	75	75	B	621
SG	Mount Ida	Curtis White	Sr.	SG	49	87	2	49	3	0	96	71	66	55	82	59	C+	619
SF	Husson	Anthony Foster	Jr.	PF	64	53	71	45	53	63	55	52	17	64	84	94	C+	715
PF	Mount Ida	Daniel Shaw	Sr.	C	52	42	89	54	72	85	2	21	9	46	69	91	B-	632
C	Husson	Raymond Williams	Sr.	C	54	24	99	50	73	75	16	33	15	69	69	99	D+	676

Third Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Mount Ida	Gregory Williams	Sr.	PG	41	88	2	43	4	11	81	69	86	51	84	49	C	609
SG	Becker	Clyde Hasson	Jr.	SG	59	71	9	57	2	31	73	61	55	75	86	40	C+	619
SF	UMPI	Lloyd Youngblood	Sr.	PF	56	39	73	80	62	71	35	23	29	30	69	26	C+	593
PF	Castleton State	Scott Auld	Sr.	C	53	34	93	49	90	51	13	32	36	53	75	60	C-	639
C	Thomas	Bryan Vaden	So.	C	65	12	85	58	69	69	10	6	15	75	87	52	C	603