To build from Mizzou's post. Here is what the returning rosters will look like next season.
Team |
Returning |
A |
SPD |
REB |
DE |
BLK |
LP |
PE |
BH |
P |
WE |
ST |
DU |
FT |
TOT |
TALENT |
Thomas |
8 |
52.8 |
43.8 |
40.5 |
55.3 |
37.1 |
36.9 |
40.5 |
42.0 |
40.3 |
52.6 |
75.3 |
41.3 |
C+ |
558.1 |
389.0 |
Castleton State |
11 |
56.3 |
50.6 |
38.4 |
54.2 |
30.4 |
29.5 |
32.0 |
43.5 |
36.7 |
56.5 |
75.0 |
62.9 |
C+ |
566.0 |
371.6 |
Becker |
11 |
44.8 |
39.0 |
46.4 |
42.9 |
41.1 |
45.1 |
32.5 |
40.3 |
32.3 |
56.8 |
75.3 |
54.3 |
B |
550.6 |
364.3 |
Mt. Ida |
7 |
40.9 |
50.9 |
41.4 |
40.1 |
34.9 |
44.3 |
28.3 |
39.6 |
40.4 |
50.4 |
77.9 |
61.1 |
C+ |
550.1 |
360.7 |
Elms |
8 |
43.5 |
45.9 |
32.3 |
44.1 |
24.8 |
34.8 |
44.5 |
42.0 |
40.8 |
34.1 |
71.4 |
46.3 |
C+ |
504.3 |
352.5 |
Lasell |
9 |
42.1 |
57.0 |
25.6 |
38.3 |
19.8 |
28.3 |
48.0 |
48.3 |
44.6 |
42.3 |
76.2 |
53.3 |
C- |
523.9 |
352.0 |
Husson |
6 |
45.2 |
52.0 |
28.0 |
46.5 |
18.3 |
35.3 |
32.0 |
45.7 |
35.8 |
40.2 |
70.5 |
63.2 |
B- |
512.7 |
338.8 |
UMPI |
11 |
45.4 |
42.6 |
36.3 |
53.5 |
26.4 |
28.9 |
31.5 |
39.3 |
34.1 |
49.9 |
73.9 |
57.4 |
C+ |
519.1 |
337.9 |
UMF |
12 |
31.6 |
46.6 |
35.4 |
30.3 |
30.7 |
35.1 |
33.5 |
40.0 |
33.4 |
46.4 |
77.7 |
63.3 |
B- |
504.0 |
316.6 |
MMA |
11 |
45.4 |
44.2 |
29.4 |
38.0 |
19.8 |
31.6 |
37.0 |
37.5 |
32.5 |
62.5 |
75.0 |
51.6 |
C+ |
504.5 |
315.4 |
Johnson State |
11 |
42.5 |
50.9 |
29.3 |
35.4 |
21.5 |
22.7 |
29.9 |
40.2 |
38.6 |
43.6 |
75.2 |
41.9 |
C+ |
471.8 |
311.1 |
Salem State |
8 |
32.5 |
39.5 |
42.5 |
33.1 |
26.6 |
30.4 |
30.9 |
29.6 |
37.5 |
38.5 |
72.6 |
79.9 |
C+ |
493.6 |
302.6 |
Average NAC Player |
44 |
47 |
35 |
42 |
28 |
33 |
35 |
41 |
37 |
49 |
75 |
56 |
C+ |
521 |
341.42 |
Talent is simply subtracting WE, ST, and DU. It's not completely fair but I think ranking by talent is a bit more enlightening than overall rating. Salem State might have a 40 point advantage over Johnson State in overall rating, but I'll pick Johnson State to be the better team next season. Talent also shows that Elms and Lasell are likely to be pretty close next season.
Anyway, I think Mizzou's magic 8 ball isn't too off. Taking a look at teams in his order.
Agree on Castleton. Likely pre-season #1 in D3 next season. RDB does it yet again.
I do think it underestimates Becker a bit. Although I suppose 2nd round (+) is setting the bar high. I think Becker might be closer to Final Four than 2nd round, however. Sort of looks like where Husson was two seasons ago. Except Husson jumped from 16-13, 44 RPI to the Final Four. Becker has 11 upperclassmen coming back from a 17-2, 31 RPI team.
Not sure what to think of Thomas. I believe the starting 5 will be able to run with maybe anybody in D3. The talent rating suggests that might be true. Although run with anybody might be a poor choice of words. Because the starters have stamina issues and while I like my first guard and post off the bench, the rest of the roster might get messy. Hopefully I can extend my streak of making to the 2nd round of the NT for a 19th straight season. I feel pretty good about doing so.
I thought UMPI was being undersold, but I guess I'm giving Dac too much credit for being able to walk on water. Don't think there will be a question about making the NT, but how far they go probably depends on seeding and seeding probably depends a lot on NAC play. Could see UMPI winning or co-winning the South with an 11-5 record and could also see them going 6-10.
Mount Ida won't be squeaking into the NT. They should make it with relative ease. Non-conference schedule is pretty easy but looks like it avoids the RPI killers so will be in excellent shape entering NAC play. And Mount Ida's returning talent matches with just about everybody in conference.
Lasell should be interesting. Trust Carl will make it work but right now the rebounding looks pretty ugly. But that was true this season as well and the guard ratings blow everybody away.
Don't see Husson making the big dance and not sure about the PIT. Husson is going to need to make a big run in non-conference play just to get the wins to make the NT. Don't see Husson pulling it off, if they were in the South it might be a different story. Very interesting non-conference schedule set up by Husson. All Sim AI but a few of those teams return much more than Husson does I'm not sure that Husson will be good enough to go 8-2 or 9-1 against it. And if they don't, I really doubt they get the magic 14th win to make the NT.
I think Elms is better than Mizzou gives it credit for. Although I'm not sure they are as good as Tyber might think. I was about to put them in the same category with Husson for making the NT and I guess that still is the case. But that non-conference schedule is a beast. I think if Husson gets 14 wins, the RPI will be good enough to get into the NT. I have almost no doubt that Elms will have a good enough RPI to get to the NT. But 14 wins is going to be tough. So actually, maybe Mizzou had it spot on. I would say PIT lock. NT is going to be if they can get to 14 wins. With that non-conference schedule and in the NAC North, I'm not sure Elms gets there.
UMF is kind of like UMPI although I don't think UMF has the same ceiling since some of the UMF players seem like they are already maxed out. I wouldn't be on it, but I think UMF can win the South. Talent isn't the same as others but with 11 upperclassmen, UMF could do some damage in the NAC South. I like the non-conference schedule so I think UMF could sneak into the NT if the South standings play right. PIT is probably more likely but I feel much better about UMF getting 14 wins than I do Husson or Elms.
MMA? Ugh. See Elms. Trust me, I have no problem with teams playing tough teams in non-conference play. And sometimes it even makes sense to challenge yourself against a team that is likely to beat you. But in the NAC, you not only do not need to do that, but you really shouldn't do that. Because if you are playing teams in non-conference that are clearly better than you, you are also going to be playing teams in the NAC that are clearly better than you too. So getting to 14 wins is really hard. Off my soapbox, I'm not sure what to make of MMA. The returning roster isn't that impressive looking at the chart. But MMA is returning pretty much everybody and this past season did pretty well in the NAC for a team so young. I'd think that's a lock for the NT this season. But I'm not confident that they repeat the 7-9 conference mark. And if they don't, I think the NT is off the table because I'd be surprised if they can do better than 5-5 in non-conference play. But I might be missing something here and I probably am overlooking jazzcoq as a coach. After all, he ran the table the season prior and took what seemed to bottom of the table team last season to a mid-range finish in the NAC.
Johnson State might be this year's Husson/Becker. Ok,. probably not. But I was pretty surprised to see that Johnson State measured quite favorably on the talent scale with UMF and MMA. Of course talent ignores WE and Johnson State's is poor and the team is young so the IQ's are ugly. A better comparison might be to Salem State -- a team that goes out and wins a bunch of games in non-conference play and is a bit of an asset to us as conference play begins. I wouldn't have said this before running the numbers, but Johnson State just might make the PIT this season. Not sure if the RPI will be good enough but I could see them winning a handful of games this season in conference play.
To be disagreeable with Bob, I'll say that Salem State gets one win in conference play. They actually have the 2nd best team rebounding numbers. That's the only nice thing I can say, so I'll let it at that.
Way too early predictions from me:
NORTH
Castleton 15-1
Becker 13-3
Elms 9-7
Lasell 9-7
Husson 3-13
Johnson State 3-13
SOUTH
Thomas 11-5
Mt. Ida 10-6
UMPI 9-7
UMF 7-9
MMA 6-10
Salem State 1-15