I currently have four active teams.  In games decided by more than one run, their aggregate record is 129-90 (.589), but in one-run games their record is a horrific 31-58 (.348).  (The difference is now statistically significant by a mile.)  The biggest horror story is a team that is 46-33 in games decided by more than a run and 9-25 in one-run games, and that team has a pretty good bullpen so I don't think it is a lack of quality relievers bringing them down.

HELP!  Any advice from someone who has traditionally won more than their share of one-run games - or even half of the damn things - would be greatly appreciated!  This is driving me bananas; I have been thinking for a long time that I'd eventually edge closer to .500 in one-run games, but at this point I believe that there is some flaw in how I build or manage my teams.

I don't pay attn to one run games, but I do pay attn whether or not I'm winning games at a higher percentage than my pythagorean expected win percentage. Thats whats important. And yes there are definitly ways to do it consistently.

What would you say is the number 1 reason for NOT winning as many games as your expected win percentage?

Posted by bheid408 on 12/21/2010 10:29:00 PM (view original):
What would you say is the number 1 reason for NOT winning as many games as your expected win percentage?

Lack of skill.  :-)

 it is the little things that make the difference. I understand the game well enough so that as I go thru the season, managers who don't understand the game as well as I fall prey, and against better managers, when I have the pitching match up edge I usually win, but in even games, the one who drafted better or set his variables better, IMO, wins. I tend to play in the same leagues repetitively, which gives me a sort of "control group." if I am having a bad one run loss season, I look at my decisions more carefully, and readjust. Am I attempting too many steals? Am I getting thrown out trying to take the extra base too often? How often am I sacrificing? When are my pitchers coming in and/or being relieved? etc. Usually the answer(s) are somewhere in my managerial settings and/or my line up selection.

do some research into your records when winning/losing after 8 innings.

is your team losing 4-1 in the 8th and rallying to lose 4-3? or are you really blowing leads in the 9th?

In my opinion 1-run games are a crapshoot and not a reliable indicator of how good a team is (for that, look at records in games decided by, say, 5 or more runs).

Anyway, here are the 1-run records of three of the best and worst teams from a league I'm in now, 112 games in (record in 1-run games in brackets):

73-39 (11-12)
69-43 (13-18)
64-48 (12-18)

41-71 (15-15)
40-72 (16-12)
31-81 (10-10)

I'm convinced there's not much you can do to improve your record in 1-run games. 

It's the mudbone "equalizer" conspiracy theory... It's a fact, all my good teams suck at one run games and keep blowing saves... I have the best closers available in the draft center but they blow games much more often than what would seem logical... the theory is that WIS as incorporated an equalizing effect to give noobs or less effective owners a chance to be competitive, so it would seem that "drama" is intentionally added to late innings to equalize games... of course WIS has vehemently denied such a shameful theory... on the other hand our friend muddy says he got that from some ex-staff member...
Who, what whall we believe? Muddy, WIS, the game results themselves... things that make you go hmmm...

No, it's a crapshoot.  In real life too.  In 2010, Baltimore finished last in the AL East with a 66-96 record.  Yet they had the best record in the division in 1-run games (29-21).  Was Bud Selig inserting "drama" there?

Another example: the 2003 Tigers lost 119 games (most since the 1962 Mets), yet their record in 1-run games was 19-18.  That same season, the Braves tied for the most wins in MLB (101), yet their record in 1-run games was 17-25.  I don't think anyone would argue the Tigers had a better pen than the Braves, or were more clutch, or anything like that. 

Bill James: "Winning or losing close games is luck. Teams which win more 1-run games than they should one year have little tendency to do so the next year."

take a look deeper at the one run losses.  I just ran through a string of 5 consecutive one run losses and was bothered by them too.  In all of them I was losing by 2 or more runs going into the 9th and my team rallied to score mulitple runs in the top of the inning against a setup guy, just not enough before the closer was brought in.  I think there's less control over that type of loss than one where you lose because a weak defensive player booted a ball in the 9th to blow a lead and can adjust a defensive subs setting.

maybe your offense is too good. you're not winning 1-run games because your hitters score again and you win by 2 runs!  My best 1-run records seem to be pitching dominated teams with strong W-L overall, but that's what you'd expect from run distribution theory.
I agree it's mostly a crapshoot and small sample size but there are some things you can control. bad or skimpy bullpen would be the first suspect. bad bench would be the next suspect, good pinch hitters would help and pinch runners with 0 CS would help a little. other than that, learn to roll thd dice better.

Quite frankly, how bad is your record going to be in 1-run games when your overall record is 14-2?  Wait it out a little more.