Really interesting thoughts in here.
1/29/2013 8:57 AM
Page 5 for asdlfef.   Plus/minus plays and their effect on pitching.
2/15/2013 12:28 PM
Just to comment on this thread, I think some people are trying to read a bit too much into certain things.

The example that MikeT posted shows pretty clearly the relationship between +/- and pitching, and it's not that difficult to quantify.

Adjusting for IP, Mike's pitchers allowed about 61 fewer non-HR hits in S10 than they did in S9. Their +/- was 53 better. Pretty simple. Generally speaking, for every 1 increase in +/-, you save about 1 hit. You can ballpark the value of a hit at about a half of a run. So, every 1 increase in +/- saves you about half a run. Not too complicated.
2/15/2013 5:16 PM

bump

1/7/2014 6:01 PM
Bump for groth.
7/17/2014 8:28 AM
Posted by jtrinsey on 2/15/2013 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Just to comment on this thread, I think some people are trying to read a bit too much into certain things.

The example that MikeT posted shows pretty clearly the relationship between +/- and pitching, and it's not that difficult to quantify.

Adjusting for IP, Mike's pitchers allowed about 61 fewer non-HR hits in S10 than they did in S9. Their +/- was 53 better. Pretty simple. Generally speaking, for every 1 increase in +/-, you save about 1 hit. You can ballpark the value of a hit at about a half of a run. So, every 1 increase in +/- saves you about half a run. Not too complicated.
Not all + plays are "hits turning into outs".  That's overly simplistic, and generally inaccurate.

I had a SS type with 90+ arm ratings who I played in CF for a number of seasons.  He had a ton of + plays every season.  But when I went through play by play one season to get a better understanding of exactly what he was doing for me defensively, I saw that most of his + plays were on base hits.  I think his arm was deterring singles from being stretched into doubles (as they may have been on a more "average" CF).  Still a valuable thing, but certainly not the same value as turning hits into outs.

Bottom line: not all + plays are the same.

7/17/2014 8:51 AM (edited)

Not to be argumentative, which means I'm going to be argumentative, but, if you're going to develop a formula, you have to create a value for a play.   Errors are what they are.   A plus play could be turning a hit into an out or preventing an extra base.   A negative play could be turning an out into a hit(range) or allowing an extra base.   In all cases, the play prevented/allowed a runner to move to another station. 

So, unless you're going to look at box scores to determine the "true" value of a +/- play, you have to treat them as allowing/preventing the movement from station to station.

7/17/2014 9:13 AM
Bump for ezzcon
7/24/2015 2:58 PM
It's in here somewhere, lccooler.
1/3/2018 5:43 PM
◂ Prev 1...5|6|7

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2024 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.