Tre, I don't get the Reynolds pick at all but otherwise you're killing it.

Yeah, Reynolds is a big risk. Might have blown it there. I was taking Daniel Hudson if he was there, and 3B is getting thin. I think Reynolds can bounce back in Baltimore, but he'll still K a ton.

Eephus, I know the future.   Obviously we're making some assumptions based on past performance.  :rolleyes:

Actual mileage may vary

well, it's pretty safe to say Reynolds will whiff a lot.  we all know how the sim treats guys with 40 SO/100 PAs

It's been a while. Trying a different format that's easier to cut and paste.

Dexter Fowler	140
Neil Walker	141
Daniel Hudson	142
Franklin Gutierrez	143
Angel Pagan	144
Mark Reynolds	145
Mariano Rivera	146
Carlos Zambrano	147
Aubrey Huff	148
Gavin Floyd	149
Carlos Quentin	150

Obviously I like the Fowler pick (good walk rate, good CF, should have lots of PAs, some speed). Walker will have a horrible glove but at least he can hit at 2B. FraGu, Pagan, Fowler, 3 more CF's off the board. We are actually getting to the point where selecting a reliever isn't a bad strategy. Reynolds seems like a reach. Floyd was mine too. I really like his GB % even though he pitches in the Cell. I have been trying to draft hitters in hitters parks and pitchers in pitchers parks, but Floyd goes against that.

Michael Bourn	151
Jhoulys Chacin	152
Jason Bay	153
Javier Vazquez	154
Anibal Sanchez	155
Delmon Young	156
Ryan Dempster	157
Gordon Beckham	158
Carlos Marmol	159
Ian Stewart	160

LOVE the Beckham pick. He fell way too far. Dempster/Chacin both groundballers, both high on my list. Anibal seems a bit high. Like Vazquez to bounce back in FLA. Bay seems like a bad pick.

Travis Snider	161
Carlos Pena	162
Ike Davis	163
Joakim Soria	164
Lance Berkman	165
Jeremy Hellickson	166
Johnny Cueto	167
Jaime Garcia	168
Tim Stauffer	169
Bronson Arroyo	170

Really like the Garcia pick (another from my list of GB% guys in pitchers parks). I'm bummed that I missed out on the last 1Bs I really wanted (Pena and Ike). Like Snider a lot. Berkman's glove will be horrible in STL, is this a good place for an empty .370 OBP?

Ian Kennedy	171
Neftali Feliz	172
Luke Scott	173
Dallas Braden	174
Brian Matusz	175
Andres Torres	176
JJ Hardy	177
Jhonny Peralta	178
Jair Jurrjens	179
Heath Bell	180

Feliz was picked at the peak of speculation that he'd be a starter. Probably fine either way. Torres goes a long way after Pagan, could be a good value. Love the Hardy pick here. Was hoping he'd fall all the way to me. Looked at Kennedy but he's a fly ball guy in a tough park.

John Lackey	181
Rajai Davis	182
Juan Pierre	183
Carlos Lee	184
Chris Coghlan	185
Scott Baker	186
Edwin Jackson	187
Adam Lind	188
Jake Peavy	189
Cliff Pennington	190

Lind was my pick. I am hoping he'll bounce back and give me .270-30HR. Can he play 1B at all? That's the question. I waited too long on Pennington, a guy I really wanted but figured his bat would keep him safe for a while. Don't like the Baker pick. Peavy has nice upside. Carlos Lee.. yikes. Rajai Davis - all roto value? He will play CF, can he get on base enough? Coghlan is probably going to struggle in CF for the Marlins but his bat has potential.

Daric Barton	191
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	192
Carl Pavano	193
Jordan Zimmermann	194
Grady Sizemore	195
Derrek Lee	196
Placido Polanco	197
Jed Lowrie	198
Bobby Abreu	199
Chipper Jones	200
Denard Span	201
Mark Buehrle	202

Barton was a huge value in WIS in 2010 because of his range and OBP. Can he do it again? He's a steal if he can. I went back and forth a million times on Nishioka. The Twins looked like they might play him at SS for a couple days and I was excited, but it looks like he's back to 2B now. Baseball Prospectus does NOT like him. Pavano was high on my list, surprised he went so high. Like the Sizemore pick - he stinks for roto if he doesn't run but he could still hit .270-25HR and have respectable range. Polanco is a nice find this late. Abreu seems too early, but I guess we're getting into that range of OK bat, horrible glove corner guys. Buehrle seems too high, but it's hard to undervalue durability.

And Span... he was my pick. I didn't need a CF as I got Fowler last time, but I had Span almost a win better than anyone else on my board. So now I have Span and Fowler, the better one will be in CF and the other in LF. The better one will lead off, and hopefully the other can hit 2nd. Or Zobrist can do it. I'm playing in Chase Field (+3 for triples) so it will help, but I was hoping for more power from my corner spots, so I may have to work a trade.

I love your Lind pick -- Denard Span not so much.  You are going to draft a SS some day, right?  Actually, you've been pretty lucky.  There are several decent starters still out there, including Asdrubal Cabrera (who I like), Ryan Theriot and Ian Desmond, who ESPN somewhat inexplicably ranks #9 among shortstops.  BTW, what are your rosters?  Same as WIS OL (without the AAA)? 

We're drafting 35players (840 total picks) and playing with 31 (3 each manual AAA pitchers and hitters).  If teams don't have 31 guys who meet WIS eligibility minimums, the rosters will get filled out w/ $200K WIS players.

Erick Aybar	203
Jorge De La Rosa	204
Jose Lopez	205
Chase Headley	206
Asdrubal Cabrera	207
Andrew Bailey	208
Mike Minor	209
Randy Wolf	210
Kevin Slowey	211
Logan Morrison	212
Manny Ramirez	213
Jeremy Guthrie	214
Travis Wood	215

Like the Headley pick, a serviceable 3B. Asdrubal is the guy I probably should have picked instead of Span. I like LoMo a lot here as a high OBP corner OF. Not a big fan of the SPs except for Minor. Bailey is a good RP to get.

Howard Kendrick	216
Omar Infante	217
Ervin Santana	218
James McDonald	219
Joel Pineiro	220
Wade Davis	221
Jeff Niemann	222
Carlos Ruiz	223
Magglio Ordonez	224
Derek Holland	225

Holland and Niemann have some upside. Ruiz is a steal this late. McDonald and Ervin seem really early but I guess we're at the point where everyone is picking according to their preference. My SP choice from this group would be Pineiro.

Jake Westbrook	226
Jonathan Papelbon	227
Ian Desmond	228
David Ortiz	229
Chris Iannetta	230
JA Happ	231
Justin Smoak	232
Jon Garland	233
Vladimir Guerrero	234
Jonathan Niese	235

Westbrook and Garland, higher OAV guys but groundballers in friendly parks. Smoak has some upside. Is big Papi going to be better than a D-/D- at 1B? That could be an expensive PH. Desmond probably fell too far because of his horrible glove. How much outfield will Vlad play? Will he be a DH-only too?

Jason Hammel	236
Ryan Raburn	237
J.J. Putz	238
Cameron Maybin	239
RA Dickey	240
Homer Bailey	241
Raul Ibanez	242
Coco Crisp	243
Reid Brignac	244
Yadier Molina	245

I finally drafted a shortstop in Brignac. Hopefully as a full-timer he'll have a better glove than he did in 2010. Low OBP but could hit a few HRs, lefty so I might be able to platoon him with a crappy righty. Was thinking about Bartlett but he went before my next pick. I agonized over Hammel vs. Dickey, Dickey had a great GB% and plays in CitiField, but he's so old and it could be a fluke. I might have blown that one. But I like Hammel as an underrated SP4. Coco is a solid part-time CF here. Yadi is another steal at C - maybe grabbing Santana early was a mistake. Maybin has upside.

Mark Ellis	246
Jonny Gomes	247
JD Drew	248
Aaron Harang	249
Kurt Suzuki	250
Aroldis Chapman	251
Alcides Escobar	252
Clayton Richard	253
Brett Cecil	254
Derek Lowe	255

Love the Aroldis pick, he could chip in 90+ solid innings. Escobar and Richard were high on my list. Not so much Drew and Gomes, but that's what the outfield is coming to. Lowe is a GB% guy, Cecil a kid with upside, Harang has Petco. Solid group here.

Bud Norris	256
Randy Wells	257
Mike Napoli	258
Rick Porcello	259
Johan Santana	260
Matt Thornton	261
Seth Smith	262
Rafael Soriano	263
Jose Tabata	264
Joe Nathan	265

Thornton is a huge value here. I'll talk more about RPs later. Love Tabata too, but I couldn't pick him and have 3 low-power outfielders. Seth Smith is a great guy to build a platoon with. Johan is a nice get if he can put together 90 solid innings. Like Randy Wells a lot more than some pitchers picked so far. Norris and Porcello, not so much. Napoli is a steal if he gets any kind of decent rating at C.

Luke Gregerson	266
Brandon Webb	267
AJ Burnett	268
Jim Thome	269
Fausto Carmona	270
Jason Kubel	271
David Freese	272
Doug Fister	273
Barry Zito	274
Kyle Drabek	275

Like the Gregerson pick a lot. I don't think Webb will do much. AJ is a nice bounce-back candidate, as a Yankee fan his spring is making me a bit optimistic. Thome is an expensive pinch hitter. Carmona could be solid. Zito too in that park.

Michael Pineda	276
Kosuke Fukudome	277
Michael Brantley	278
Jason Bartlett	279
Hong-Chih Kuo	280
Marlon Byrd	281
Daniel Bard	282
Chris Sale	283
Daisuke Matsuzaka	284
Eric Bedard	285

Bedard is a big gamble. Like the Dice-K pick. Sale was mine - hoping he's the AL Aroldis. See my comments above about Bartlett. Byrd makes a nice 4th OF. Kuo is a stud RP. Pineda has good upside. Bard does too, but even though I love his stuff, I hate his environment.

Danny Valencia	286
Huston Street	287
Jonny Venters	288
John Buck	289
John Axford	290
Chris Capuano	291
Alfonso Soriano	292

Soriano was mine as well. We had a run on Cubs outfielders. In a park that's +1 for HR LF I think Soriano fits fine in the 7 hole. Give me 40 doubles, 25 HR and a .265 average and I will be happy. Too bad his defense sucks. I like Venters as a guy who gets a ton of ground balls.

Wow that's longer than I thought. Anyway here's where I am now.

Lineup
1	Fowler CF, bats S
2	Span LF, bats L
3	Bautista 3b, bats R
4	Lind, 1B, bats L
5	Santana c, Bats S
6	Zobrist 2b, bats S
7	A Soriano rf bats R
8	Brignac ss, bats L

Pitchers
Sp1	King Felix, RHP
Sp2	Brett Anderson, LHP
Sp3	Gavin Floyd, RHP
Sp4	Jason Hammel, RHP
Sp5
CLA
SUA	Chris Sale, LHP

You have a great lineup so far and a nice mix of aging vets who should still have a few more productive seasons (Soriano) and rising stars due for breakthrough or comeback seasons (Santana, Fowler, Lind, Anderson).  Gavin Floyd is a strong #3 SP for a league that deep.  I would have preferred Asdrubal Cabrera over Span (your only pick that I'm not crazy about), but you salvaged nicely with Brignac, who I think has decent upside.  I might have gone Chapman over Hammel and either Cabrera, Smoak or Logan Morrison over Span, but it's easy to be an armchair owner.  The mark of a good draft is when you look at your overall roster and it's stronger than each of your individual choices, and I think you're getting there.  Glad you've resisted the urge to go to the bullpen too early -- you can always pick up bullpen pieces from the WW during the season (you will have a WW, right?) 

You have some injury risks like Fowler (who will make you look smart this year), Santana, Soriano and Felix, so I guess you should start drafting for depth soon (especially at catcher).  But I would also throw in some high ceiling young pitchers.  Speaking of which... who got Neftali Feliz?  Could be the second coming of King Felix.