Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 7/15/2018 6:47:00 PM (view original):
It is too easy.

Do you think it'd be better to have them drop super low to D prestige level when the team has a bad stretch but they could gain it back really easily?

Posted by Benis on 7/16/2018 9:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 7/15/2018 6:47:00 PM (view original):
It is too easy.

Do you think it'd be better to have them drop super low to D prestige level when the team has a bad stretch but they could gain it back really easily?

Personally, I think it would be better if there was a floating prestige...just like DII and DIII. I know, it's an old argument, so I'm not going to defend it too rigorously. It's been done too many times by myself and others over the years.

Seems like I might get boo'd off stage for this take but I like baseline prestige. I think people will be more attracted to a game that has Kansas and UK at the near the top of the pile. I am. Also gives people something to work too. It took me a long time to get to an A+ baseline prestige school. I found that quite fun and gave me motivation to strive for.

And before this gets lobbed back at me, that doesn't mean that I am not also in favor of:
1. better job firing logic (this being the most important)
2. Recalibrating the impact a bit so when a Delaware State makes a run like they have, they stay at A+ longer.
3. Disclosing the baseline in the hiring screen so you know what you are signing up for

I agree with texashick. Baseline prestige is obviously and great for the game. I worked so hard to get that first A+ baseline job and I think it betters gameplay.

Baseline prestige should be the main factor that determines how easy it is to get fired, and the list of baseline prestige by school should be published public ally and easily available.

Call me crazy, but how strong is the Duke A+ baseline? I was thinking it was probably one of the highest baselines considering their history, but I noticed this 10-season stretch of not getting above an A.

Sn.	Coach	Overall	Home	Road	Neutral	Conf	Rank	RPI	SOS	Prestige	Notes
113	bgally2085	27-2	Oct-00	16-0	2-Jan	16-0	9	14	86	A	Conf Champion
											NT At-large Bid
											NT (1st Round)
112	bgally2085	20-11	2-Aug	7-Sep	2-Mar	7-Sep		34	24	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (Sweet 16)
111	bgally2085	28-5	1-Jul	16-2	2-May	13-3	15	20	66	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (Elite 8)
110	bgally2085	19-11	3-Sep	6-Aug	2-Feb	5-Nov		49	45	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (1st Round)
109	bgally2085	18-11	3-Aug	6-Sep	2-Jan	6-Oct		57	53	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (1st Round)
108	bgally2085	27-3	Sep-00	16-1	2-Feb	15-1	12	14	63	A	Conf Champion
											NT At-large Bid
											NT (Sweet 16)
107	bgally2085	21-9	2-Aug	6-Oct	1-Mar	5-Nov		47	70	A	CT Champion
											NT (1st Round)
106	bgally2085	17-12	4-Jun	6-Oct	2-Jan	8-Aug		54	37	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (1st Round)
105	bgally2085	25-5	Sep-00	14-3	2-Feb	14-2		27	77	A	Conf Champion
											NT At-large Bid
											NT (2nd Round)
104	bgally2085	20-11	3-May	6-Dec	2-Mar	7-Sep		44	51	A	NT At-large Bid
											NT (1st Round)

Ignore the strange formatting that changed the win/loss columns into dates. This guy made the NT every season with a few wins. He also had 13 players drafted within that period, of which 5 were top-10 picks. You'd think that would be enough to reach baseline, especially the 1st round, 1st round, E8, S16 stretch.

Is Duke a borderline A/A+ baseline prestige?

two things -

1) draft picks have absolutely no relevance to this conversation, they only impact the transient, not-listed-on-the-history page, prestige.

2) i doubt they are borderline a+ but i doubt that even matters if they are. what world is this, how strong is the ACC there? conf prestige is a big deal, does that ACC suck relative to normal ACCs? that could be a factor.

also, the records and rpis are largely no better than those 1st round appearances, and that is part of it. its easy, but not absurdly so, i suppose, to get an A+ on A+ baseline. you still need like a sweet 16 or two. four 2nd rounds i think does it with good rpi/record figures, something in that ballpark. the only one that i would call surprising in all this is 112. but 111 is also borderline. the rest i would have guessed A in a generic guessing format (not knowing conf prestige). 112 surprises me to the point where i feel like i should be able to confidently state, that ACC is weak conf prestige wise, that they must be to justify 112. but i'm not positive about that. the s16, e8, rd1, rd1, would generally be an A+, but those rpi and records are all not so hot.

Yeah, that's true regarding draft picks. I'm not sure about the ACC conference strength in that time (its in Allen). From my experience, 4 straight postseason appearances (even if they're all 1st round exits) usually get me to baseline so I thought it was weird that Duke didn't get to A+, even with a few NT wins. But this is my first experience with an A+ baseline so maybe I overrated them. I just figured that it was easy to get to A+ and then anything extra would give you that A+++.

Posted by mlitney on 6/22/2022 1:31:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, that's true regarding draft picks. I'm not sure about the ACC conference strength in that time (its in Allen). From my experience, 4 straight postseason appearances (even if they're all 1st round exits) usually get me to baseline so I thought it was weird that Duke didn't get to A+, even with a few NT wins. But this is my first experience with an A+ baseline so maybe I overrated them. I just figured that it was easy to get to A+ and then anything extra would give you that A+++.

'4 straight post season appearances usually get me to baseline' - this sort of behavior will differ wildly between a D prestige d1 and A+ d1. for a D prestige, 4 1st rounds is a B, thats a 2 grade difference. for A+ prestige, its going to consistently be an A IMO, you'll not see a lot of 4 round 1 appearances leading to A+s even for A+ schools.

but the point is, what you've derived (4 post season appearances get to baseline) is basically an observation that could only possibly even hold true on a relative small part of the spectrum (B to A or so), and i would definitely ignore that and focus instead on building a link between what matters, which we have pretty good intel on, and actual prestige. performance at a school, from NT success, wins, rpi, basically gives you a performance prestige score, which is averaged in (not evenly) with baseline prestige and conference prestige. performance at the school is the #1 factor, and has nothing to do with baseline prestige. d2/d3 and d1 being a lot different overall, prestige wise, where d1 is a rolling 4 season window for performance which is averaged in with baseline and conference, d2/d3 are 'half last season, half before, with some sort of cap on the amount of change allowed'.

any of these sort of rules of thumb along the lines of what you said, are definitely not advanced enough for a coach of your level, not when we have such good information on how prestige works. and certainly not the one you just said. that is basically complete nonsense (no offense!)

Haha no offense taken. I guess all of my jobs in the past few years have been in the B- to A- baseline range so it just became my simplistic expectation. I think I've completed 7 D1 rebuilds in the past 2-3 years (Arizona State, Cal, Oklahoma, Utah, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Virginia) so my formula is something like:
1. Get decent players and make the postseason consistently
2. Get to baseline prestige
3. Start to "reach up" for higher tier players when it makes sense.

As I just took over a struggling Duke team in Allen, I'm trying to figure out the best way to leverage the A+ baseline in an attempt to rebuild as quickly as possible. And with the current recruiting landscape, it may be more difficult than I first imagined. Looks like I've got my work cut out for me.

With all of those prior rebuilds, it only took 3-4 straight postseason appearances to reach the baseline, but it makes sense due to the lower baselines of those schools. A similar performance prestige at an A+ baseline won't get you there. To be honest, I was ignorant of the exact inner workings of prestige, but looking at it that way, it makes complete sense.

You learn something every day.

Simple answer - it’s the RPI.

It’s a little more complicated, probably some conference strength as gil noted. And it is true I think that not all A+ baselines are the same, though in this case, I don’t think that’s it. My Michigan St team has also been a pain to get back to A+ (and has been for 2 coaches before me as well). The primary factor, again, has been RPI - the single digit years have been every 4th season basically, which sort of just resets the clock on a certain level. So unless I kill it in the postseason, which hadn’t happened until this year, we sit at a straight A. If you score two solid top ~15s in that 4-year, then maintain a tournament team outside that, it is generally enough to keep you going at A+ with an A+ baseline.

If you just avg RPI and NT performance, without prestige, this is a fairly mediocre stretch. Good, but nothing special
rough rankings I used: NT 1st round = 48th, 2nd round = 24th, third round = 12th, elite 8 = 6, Average that score with RPI for individual season score.

season #104 > #113.
individual season scores: 46, 25, 51, 47, 13, 52, 48, 13, 23, 31

That's roughly two seasons of borderline A/A+, two seasons of A-/A, one season B+/A-, five seasons of B
My take is that the past four seasons combined, without prestige, is give-or-take around a B+/A-

Ok, I knew that RPI played a role but I always thought NT success was the overwhelming factor. That gives some perspective.

NT success can seem like it swamps everything, because at the high end, a title season or really good season is going to be much higher than the A+ cutoff, and therefore, will have a relatively big impact on the whole, 4-season prestige.

however, if you kinda pay attention with it in the back of your mind that record and RPI matter a lot, i think you'll see it. the first time it really jumped out at me was a d2 team who made the final 4, i think on a 10 seed, and pulled an A-. i forget what they started with, but i was shocked by the A-. it made it really clear the regular season mattered a good deal. d1 works differently in theory but in practice, i don't really find it to be that different, in terms of the performance portion of prestige. the baseline and conf prestige make it a lot different obviously, and the 4 year d1 prestige vs d2/d3's 50% last season and 50% prior.