Runs scored, home runs, stolen bases: good enough? Topic

I keep having a debate with myself whether to keep this guy in the #2 slot of my batting order:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1923615


He's got a good batting eye and a little bit of power and a good bit of speed to go with it.  He scores runs just about everytime he gets on base...because, hey, if you hit a double and steal third base it's not so hard to find your way home afterward.  But his batting average tends to range between mediocre and egregious and his OBP is just mediocre as well.  Is he the exception to the rule that batting average and OBP are important at the top of the order?  Or am I overlooking some basic statistical principle?

All rants welcome... 
5/1/2011 10:04 PM
His OPS seems to be underperforming.  I would expect that it should normailize to something close to his career numbers going forward.

His career OBP and SLG probably make him better suited to be lower/middle of the lineup hitter (like a #6).
5/1/2011 10:15 PM
Thanks, tecwrg.  What you say makes a lot of sense.  Would nobody argue the counterpoint?  That the fact that the guy always scores when he gets on base makes him a rare exception to the rules...even though his stats are low?  I mean, his 122 runs from last year (after coming from a pitcher's park to a neutral one) were a lot, and he's on par to do it again. 
5/2/2011 6:07 PM
He's not scoring runs because he's doing anything special.  You've got three guys on pace for 100 RBI.   RS is the same as RBI.   A by-product of opportunity.
5/2/2011 6:43 PM
There are also many saber studies indicating that batting order is not important either.  Just use him where you feel the most comfortable.  I would want to get my best hitters the most AB's in a given game...
5/3/2011 8:01 AM
But Mike, a person could argue that those three guys (my 3-4-5) are on par for 100 RBIs because the guy on base (Hutton) has the speed to take an extra bag (either stealing or baserunning).  My other #2 option is actually my #5 hitter Standridge, who's probably going to end up the season .280/.340/.480 and has low-70s speed.  I guarantee that Hutton (94 speed) makes it around the basepaths in some instances where Standridge would not, but perhaps maybe not enough to make up for his lifetime .250/.340/.450.
5/3/2011 9:42 AM
One could also argue that Hutton would have virtually 0 RS if those three weren't productive.   Hence, a by-product of opportunity.    Speed and baserunning work in conjunction.   That 68 BR isn't anything special.   I'd probably argue that a 80sp/80br would be producing more runs.
5/3/2011 9:51 AM

A guy with a .291 OBP is not the offensive catalyst in your lineup.  Your 3-4-5 guys are, with OPS's of .862, 1.084 and .886.  They're the ones who are producing the runs. 

Like Mike said, Hutton is not doing anything special.  He's just getting the benefit of getting on base at a 29% rate (horrible for a top of the order guy) but scoring 57% of those times because of the 3-4-5 guys hitting behind him.

5/3/2011 9:58 AM
Good eye, good speed... I can see why you'd put him at the top, but I typically like table-setters with DUR in the 90s, because they get more PAs, and will tired faster than guys lower in your order.

Aside from that, I think I'd choke to be paying $7.75 for a sub.-800 OPS COF.
5/3/2011 10:58 AM
Yeah, I overpaid for him for what I thought were good reasons.  I had him rated as the #2 COF in FA, and he was a Type A OVR who, because he'd been released, I didn't have to divvy up a draft pick for.  I also thought that he'd been under-performing in a pitcher's park (OKC).  Finally, I had a COF prospect about 2-3 seasons away and he only wanted a 3 year deal.  With all those things together, I decided to pay full price for him...and he rewarded me the first season with an .869 OPS and an all-star selection.  This year, however, has been less impressive (although he is on pace to score 120 runs, hit 30+ HR, and steal 40+ bases).
5/3/2011 11:20 AM
I like him more than the others that have answered this thread.  His line last season is exactly what I'd project him to in Philly... he's had a ton of numbers sucked out of his career stat line by Bricktown Park.  It depends on the rest of your lineup where he hits, but my best guess is I'd hit him 5-6 if I had him.

EDIT:  On further review of your team, I think it's OK to lead Hutton off against RHP.  But I would strongly consider turning off steals and leading off Mulder against LHP, with that 96 VsL, 96 Eye, and unremarkable (69) power.  Yes, I know he's got no speed (literally, SPD = 0) but his OBP will be well over .400 against LHP.
5/3/2011 11:43 AM (edited)
Mulder is a beast against LHP.  He is currently hitting .448/.515/.655 against them.  This won't last, but I think he ended last season with close to a .400 avg against LHP.  Because of this I have him batting 3rd, and I think I had him 2nd last season.  But you would bat him 1st? 
5/3/2011 1:07 PM
Posted by silentpadna on 5/3/2011 8:01:00 AM (view original):
There are also many saber studies indicating that batting order is not important either.  Just use him where you feel the most comfortable.  I would want to get my best hitters the most AB's in a given game...
I thought the SABR geeks had determined that the "optimal" batting order was descending by OBP.  I've got a book where that is mentioned, but it's at home.
5/3/2011 1:30 PM
You have to score runs to win. uber efficient base running is a rare skill. At the 2 I would be worried that his opportunities would be lessened by either a runner in front of him or getting his chance with an out already. Sounds like the perfect 9 hitter. IMO its worth it if. .245/.300, 30 doubles 110 runs. May also have an effect on opportunities for the middle of the order if this guy is rarely on base.
4/1/2018 9:46 PM
Wow this was some necro here.
4/1/2018 9:58 PM
Runs scored, home runs, stolen bases: good enough? Topic

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