Posted by kinoa1 on 3/3/2016 6:50:00 PM (view original):
That may be. But since the sim still significantly cuts into a players FTA's, it should technically compensate by increasing both FGAs and TOs to attain the players usage %. Correct? So even if a players TOV% isn't going up due to the Player possession penalty, it's still bound to go up by virtue of reduced FTAs. My question is how much is TOV% affected with a player like Shaq, whose likely going to lose half his real life FTAs, as opposed to a player like Curry, who might actually reach his real life FTA's.

I'd also be really curious to see if a team built with high usage but low FTA matches it's real life TOV%.

Usually a team will have more TO in the sim than real life because (a) most teams run uptempo and (b) high stl% defenders are quite common. I don't think the loss of FTA to FGA impacts the individual possession penalty since the formula multiplies FTA by 0.44.

Pretty consistent increase in tov% no matter what. It's a solid theory, assuming the knowledge base is correct... which is a big assumption, indeed. I'll take some time next week and pour over years of data & see if I see anything backing it up.

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/3/2016 7:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kinoa1 on 3/3/2016 6:50:00 PM (view original):
That may be. But since the sim still significantly cuts into a players FTA's, it should technically compensate by increasing both FGAs and TOs to attain the players usage %. Correct? So even if a players TOV% isn't going up due to the Player possession penalty, it's still bound to go up by virtue of reduced FTAs. My question is how much is TOV% affected with a player like Shaq, whose likely going to lose half his real life FTAs, as opposed to a player like Curry, who might actually reach his real life FTA's.

I'd also be really curious to see if a team built with high usage but low FTA matches it's real life TOV%.

Usually a team will have more TO in the sim than real life because (a) most teams run uptempo and (b) high stl% defenders are quite common. I don't think the loss of FTA to FGA impacts the individual possession penalty since the formula multiplies FTA by 0.44.

uptempo is definitely a factor in TOs but UT is supposed to improve FG% (while the Indy penalty nerfs it) then again it will also lead to more attempts so it's another place where you're likely to trip the individual penalty in the first place

meanwhile are you assuming that WiS somehow backwards engineered that 0.44 factor from the IRL usage equation into the individual penalty evaluation? I'd be very surprised if that were the case, and I'd bet you money they don't take into account their own FTA shortfall issue in any event

oh and stl% is a pretty nerfed stat

Posted by copernicus on 3/3/2016 9:20:00 PM (view original):
oh and stl% is a pretty nerfed stat

explain

Posted by copernicus on 3/3/2016 8:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/3/2016 7:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kinoa1 on 3/3/2016 6:50:00 PM (view original):
That may be. But since the sim still significantly cuts into a players FTA's, it should technically compensate by increasing both FGAs and TOs to attain the players usage %. Correct? So even if a players TOV% isn't going up due to the Player possession penalty, it's still bound to go up by virtue of reduced FTAs. My question is how much is TOV% affected with a player like Shaq, whose likely going to lose half his real life FTAs, as opposed to a player like Curry, who might actually reach his real life FTA's.

I'd also be really curious to see if a team built with high usage but low FTA matches it's real life TOV%.

Usually a team will have more TO in the sim than real life because (a) most teams run uptempo and (b) high stl% defenders are quite common. I don't think the loss of FTA to FGA impacts the individual possession penalty since the formula multiplies FTA by 0.44.

uptempo is definitely a factor in TOs but UT is supposed to improve FG% (while the Indy penalty nerfs it) then again it will also lead to more attempts so it's another place where you're likely to trip the individual penalty in the first place

meanwhile are you assuming that WiS somehow backwards engineered that 0.44 factor from the IRL usage equation into the individual penalty evaluation? I'd be very surprised if that were the case, and I'd bet you money they don't take into account their own FTA shortfall issue in any event

All other things being equal (and over the long term), uptempo will result in a higher FG% than normal or slowdown. If the possession penalty is calculated correctly (using 0.44*FTA), a shortage of FTA (which will mean an increase in FGA) won't matter.

Not sure you're understanding the issue. All usage% assumes the FTA rate is multiplied by .44. So if Shaq's Real life FTA's are 900, then 396 would be added to the equation to figure usage%. But in the sim, he'll likely get closer to 500 FTA's, meaning only 220 will be added to the usage figure, resulting in a usage shortage which, I'm assuming, needs to be made up by an increase in FGA and TOVs. Our question is how much does the TOV% go up from a player who's usage is based heavily on FTAs vs. one who is not.

And obviously there are a significant number of factors that go into this, ie ... Uptempo vs Halfcourt, team usage, overall minutes, team FTAs, etc. But if Ash has the time to go through the data, I'd be curious to see, all things being equal, how team and individual TOV% is affected when FTA's play a larger role in overall usage than when they don't.

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/3/2016 11:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by copernicus on 3/3/2016 9:20:00 PM (view original):
oh and stl% is a pretty nerfed stat

explain

in my experience stl% barely moves the needle on the TO battle compared to other factors like tempo - hell, press often doesn't seem to do much either

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/3/2016 11:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by copernicus on 3/3/2016 8:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/3/2016 7:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kinoa1 on 3/3/2016 6:50:00 PM (view original):
That may be. But since the sim still significantly cuts into a players FTA's, it should technically compensate by increasing both FGAs and TOs to attain the players usage %. Correct? So even if a players TOV% isn't going up due to the Player possession penalty, it's still bound to go up by virtue of reduced FTAs. My question is how much is TOV% affected with a player like Shaq, whose likely going to lose half his real life FTAs, as opposed to a player like Curry, who might actually reach his real life FTA's.

I'd also be really curious to see if a team built with high usage but low FTA matches it's real life TOV%.

Usually a team will have more TO in the sim than real life because (a) most teams run uptempo and (b) high stl% defenders are quite common. I don't think the loss of FTA to FGA impacts the individual possession penalty since the formula multiplies FTA by 0.44.

uptempo is definitely a factor in TOs but UT is supposed to improve FG% (while the Indy penalty nerfs it) then again it will also lead to more attempts so it's another place where you're likely to trip the individual penalty in the first place

meanwhile are you assuming that WiS somehow backwards engineered that 0.44 factor from the IRL usage equation into the individual penalty evaluation? I'd be very surprised if that were the case, and I'd bet you money they don't take into account their own FTA shortfall issue in any event

All other things being equal (and over the long term), uptempo will result in a higher FG% than normal or slowdown. If the possession penalty is calculated correctly (using 0.44*FTA), a shortage of FTA (which will mean an increase in FGA) won't matter.

I don't think that's the case though - I've got a feeling they dumbed it down and it's just like attempts per minute or some such - I'm very skeptical of the idea that the engine is constantly calculating each player's usage rate for any given moment in the game

Bumping this because its so important

So no more then 17,500 minutes and at least all 12 players have 10 usage points is the key to success?

Posted by nbafan23 on 6/6/2016 9:01:00 PM (view original):
So no more then 17,500 minutes and at least all 12 players have 10 usage points is the key to success?

it is a key to success

Posted by nbafan23 on 6/6/2016 9:01:00 PM (view original):
So no more then 17,500 minutes and at least all 12 players have 10 usage points is the key to success?

I could be wrong, but I think you are misinterpreting the 10 usage points. You should have 10 usage points on the court at all times to avoid penalties. Usage points are different than usage%. Someone with 20 usage% only has 2 usage points for example. The full details are at the start of this thread and are a must read for anyone trying to succeed.

What ben said.