ROIDS
PURE+SIMPLE

I realize that ARod is aging, but by many accounts, he may be the best conditioned athlete in MLB. He'll work his *** off to be in top shape for this season. Provided no more injuries creep up, I can see him still hitting at a high level.

I'm certainly not saying he's going to be a waste of a lineup spot anytime soon, but you said he's more than capable of 40-45 HRs.  I'm not saying it can't happen, but even excluding last year, he's been significantly less durable and (like pretty much everyone else in baseball) has seen a decline in his HR rate as well since 2007.   He'd need to reverse both of those trends to get into the 40+ HR range for a season, and he's at an age where you'd expect, if anything, movement in the other direction.

Like I said, I still think he probably gets there, I just don't expect him to have another monster season or two to make it really easy.  Could happen though.

I'd be surprised if A-Rod ever hits 30 HRs again.  I think Yankee Stadium produces a lot of HRs because that team has a lot of HR hitters. I've always thought it was a stretch to put it into the same category as say a Coors; it's a hitter's ballpark but not that much of a hitter's ballpark.  Hell Fenway is more of a bandwagon than Yankee Stadium.  I'm curious about the HR totals from 2009 in Yankee Stadium compared to 2010 & 2011. 

As others have pointed out, even though A-Rod has 6 years remaining on his contract, I am not counting the last 2 or so at all. He'll be sitting at home the last two years collecting a paycheck.  I can only see him being serviceable for another 3-4 years at the most.  Yes, he keeps himself in shape but when you can't take 'roids or use growth hormone, your skills decline as you get closer to 40.  I think there is a good chance that Bonds remains King for an awfully long time.

A-Rod for 2012:  .272/.353/.430   18 HR, 57 RBI.   If this doesn't end any talk of him "breezing" to the all-time HR crown, not sure what will.

Pujols didn't help his long-term outlook any either.