so, I'm not sure where or if this has been discussed, but there are some stats I think are useful.
the one team I keep coming back to was an ODL team three years ago. The starting lineup was 81-82 Don Buse, 08-09 Brandon Roy, 14-15 Kawhi Leonard, 14-15 Rudy Gobert, and 91-92 David Robinson, with 14-15 Paul Millsap backing up Kawhi. It doesn't look like a 40 win team, but we did win 40 (or was it 41?) games.
one thing I considered with that team was FGAP48. The SIM can only support so many FGAs and so many FTAs. With high levels of competition, you can't necessarily get 40 FTA every night. 30 to 35 is a better bet. This led me to my initial query: what is the ideal balance between FGA and FTA, and how is it impacted by percentages and possessions?
Not all TS% is created equal. Yes, I know that's not part of the SIM, but it is reflected in FT%. Shaq can get you (theoretically) 800 FTAs and make 400. In all likelihood, he'll take 600 and make 300 in your season. A big part of his TS% (and scoring) is the volume of FTAs. I know that if you get more FGAs by way of the possession battle, you can get more FTAs, but you don't want 4000 FTAs. If a player is fouled in the act of shooting and it goes in, you only get one. In this sense, FT% is very important, and the sheer volume of FTAs is not. I always toyed with the possibility that I could create foul trouble for the other team by loading up on FTAs, but that isn't a reliable strategy, especially if you're constantly turning the ball over. 20 turnovers means you didn't get 20 shots you could have had. That is why I avoid Harden and Westbrook like the plague now. It has to be possible to build a team around either of them, but it is highly unlikely.
so is David Robinson actually more efficient than Shaq? Yes. Is he going to get 30 a night? If you surround him with enough rebounding, sure.
A team I'm building in the DH52 league currently looks like this:
05-06 Chauncey Billups
89-90 Chris Mullin
72-73 Paul Silas
10-11 Dwight Howard
94-94 Dikembe Mutombo
The most controversial decision was in drafting Mullin. I could have had 17-18 Jrue Holiday, or 71-72 Walt Frazier, or 94-95 Clyde Drexler, or 00-01 Ray Allen, or Mark Price or Sidney Moncrief or Paul George.
I picked Deke in the 3rd because I needed to support Dwight with offensive rebounding. I didn't want to give up any points to any of the top centers, so I picked a 91 D version. I could still switch to Hawks Mutombo; for the time being, I think I'm cool on rebounds. I'd rather have 3100 minutes of 91 D. I could be wrong about that.
WIth my offensive rebounding in great shape, I looked at FGAP48. Chauncey and Dwight don't take a lot of shots. They will if I don't turn the ball over, rebound the ball, play D, steal and block shots.
There are a certain number of shots that will be taken between both teams in a game where both teams are set to Up Tempo. It's probably something like 200, which is why it makes sense to be more efficient than the average if you don't take as many shots. If you do, you'll win easily. If you can construct a team like my TEPL team, with an average SL defense of 79.8, LeBron and Kobe scoring the basketball with 08-09 KD off the bench, and a bunch of rebounders like 08-09 Camby filling out the frontcourt, you won't have great percentages, but you will win 68 games and the conference.
So why did I pick Mullin? Chauncey and Dwight are both well below their usage counterparts in FGAP48, probably in the bottom ten percent. Mullin averages 21.56 FGAP48, 4.47 more than 10-11 Dwight.
Walt Frazier needs more FTAs and will score less points. (I don't trust raw stats from pre-merger seasons at all. 67-68 Connie Hawkins might promise you 1900 points, but with 21 Usg%, I can't bank on that).
True, my defense might take a hit if there's a really strong backcourt. I thought Mullin was necessary because of his percentages. Whether or not he actually makes it to 25 PPG doesn't matter so much, although he could. He is going to be efficient from 2, 3, and the line. If he does get free throws, he'll shoot 88%. If he makes 300, it doesn't matter whether he took 375 or 575. If Mullin gets 100 free throws that Dwight wanted, great, because he is 29% more likely to make them. If Dwight gets 100 free throws that Mullin wanted, great, because Mullin can still get points with his strong percentage. However, if I drafted Walt Frazier, he would undoubtedly take and make less free throws. Would his defense make up for the efficiency difference between him and Mullin? If he has someone significant to defend, sure. Otherwise, he's going to put up less points and take less shots. Almost every team has a low usage player; with 58 D, I'm guessing he'll always have someone to defend who isn't a major scoring threat.
In conclusion, my theory is that balance of shots is important. If three players make a significant impact getting the line, and there are only so many free throw attempts you think you can get in the course of the possession battle, you might be better off adding another element. PP48 is significant because it takes all of this into account. 17-18 Jrue is well below average in PP48 for his usage, which means he won't produce as many points as my opponent, which means I should make that up elsewhere. How many points will your team produce? Do you need to score at a rate of 125 PPG, even if your bench brings you down to 120? Can you balance defense and offense? These are some of my thoughts, however misguided.
disclaimer; I'm no authority. Ask copernicus, look at my profile if you must.
12/22/2018 1:08 PM (edited)