Ok, lets talk about that.  In a LCS that I'm currently in, I have 08 Frank Arellanes, 06 Chappie McFarland and 06 Bob Wickman in my pen along with some other guys who are relevant to this discussion.  In 31 IP, Arellanes has a .168 OAV, a 1.15 WHIP and a 2.18 ERA.  In 37 IP, McFarland has a .288 OAV, a 1.45 WHIP and a 3.45 ERA.  Now we get to Wickman, who, according to his great normalized numbers, is SUPPOSEDLY a much better pitcher than both Arellanes and McFarland.  However, in 23 IP, Wickman has a .387 OAV, a 2.04 WHIP and a 5.87 ERA, and has been atrocious like that all season long, getting hammered damn near everytime he pitched throughout the season.

Now according to one faction on this site, they would swear that its just a "small sample size", that the "randomness" of the game will balance things out, and that Wickman is still the best pitcher to go with.    NOT!!!!!!!!  At least not for me, on my team.  I rely much more on Arellanes and McFarland than I do Wickman because despite what his normalized numbers say, he hasn't gotten it done ALL SEASON, so why should I think he'll suddenly turn into Superman and become lights out in the playoffs? He already appeared in the playoffs and got lit up again.!!!!!

Some people just refuse to look at the facts that's placed right in front of their eyes.

Contrarian: Can't that same normalized rookie in my example above be on my roster or on a future roster of mine? And If you are giving a pass to "players who are normalized weirdly" by WIS as you say, then aren't you in effect agreeing with me in some examples If I were to DRAFT this same player and also "ride out" his positive results?    And if the WIS is doing ANYTHING in a inconsistant manner then doesn't that add validity to the approach that influencial variables DO exist. 

Point taken, and it's a facinating discussion because people seem to win under both approaches. I've never finnished a season with a regular player hitting under .250(maybe Gary Carter once) or a  meaningful pitcher with a WHIP over 2.00. Under your and Stengels approach, you probably have it happen every season. For me there has to be a positive in that.  We're discussing this adamantly but in all actuality even if there is a difference it's probably only worth about 2 or 3 games a season on average if you quantify it.  Who you draft and to a lesser extent how you set your managerial parameters still is the greatest determinant on who wins and loses on this site. And most posters here seem to do that well. I don't have anymore to add, thanks for the input.

 I don't know how to "quote" just part of a post properly. 
Crimsonblue said: Down in the series I looked back on my opponents player usage patterns DURING THE REGULAR SEASON and realized he was platooning and sitting his best hitters against lefties.  

How did you look back at the opponent's usage patterns during the regular season?  Was it by going to the Team Management page, selecting their team, and looking at LHP RHP matchups and looking for trends?   Or are there other methods I have yet to learn about?  Are there (hopefully) better ways to decipher what the other team is doing?
The conversation IS fascinating. I find myself reading along, leaning one way - then WOAH - leaning the other.  

Stats 101- streaks have to make sense statistically- take a deck of cards- deal em out- you might see two twos in a row, you might see three twos in a row, you might even see four twos in a row; one thing is for sure tho, if you see five twos in a row, you will be well off to quit playin with that deck;
How does this relate? Let's use baseball terms; then go back to cards;
Baseball player Ty Cobb had a great .420 average one year 1911 I think; let's compare him to say Rafael Santana who hit I think .218 in 1986-; now its stands to reason Santana may have two hits in a row now and then; but, it's much more likely a reasonable occurrence if Cobb does that regularly;
I'll put it like this if you pay for a season, then notice your team and lots of the losing teams have a rash of underachievers winding up being released for inferior waver wire players; you should know that the original picks were sabatoged, and the waiver wire guys, likely won't have to be sabotaged because they are always cheaper and usually inferior;
Back to cards to illustrate why; if you don't know three card monte, look it up; a street card game; two black cards, one red turned down and shuffled; a blind guess should allow a 1 in three chance of finding the red card; that would yield a .333 average; A one in three shot, right? Only an informed New Yorker will tell you, a three card monte dealer used slight of hand to ditch your one shot leaving your average at a flat zero;
Under no circumstance should one belive that random streaks would or could propell a hitter like Santana to hit well enough and Cobb to hit poorly enough that they should be anywhere close to meeting inbetween;

Posted by 2bvision on 1/14/2012 9:14:00 PM (view original):
 I don't know how to "quote" just part of a post properly. 
Crimsonblue said: Down in the series I looked back on my opponents player usage patterns DURING THE REGULAR SEASON and realized he was platooning and sitting his best hitters against lefties.  

How did you look back at the opponent's usage patterns during the regular season?  Was it by going to the Team Management page, selecting their team, and looking at LHP RHP matchups and looking for trends?   Or are there other methods I have yet to learn about?  Are there (hopefully) better ways to decipher what the other team is doing?
The conversation IS fascinating. I find myself reading along, leaning one way - then WOAH - leaning the other.  

Yes, under the league office, the entire schedule and all league games can be pulled up by just clicking on a desired date, and then clicking on the desired game by clicking the highlighted innings marker. The best way to gain information IS to read these forums. Especially most of the guys that have commented on this topic, they are very knowledgable.  Just don't offend any of them as they are very passionate about their methods. Lol. Goodluck.

Thanks for the great tip, crimsonblue; the things I never knew include that.  hahah, no worries about offending the stalwarts of the forum.  I am totally in "at the knees of the masters" mode.  crazystengel saved my Eddie Mathews' season with "get your $7 Million player off the bench".  Eddie's done fairly well since.  

Posted by contrarian23 on 1/14/2012 3:07:00 PM (view original):
We have a different interpretation of the facts, and we draw different conclusions from them.

A few things you left out of your description above.  Wickman got "lit up" facing 2 batters.  He allowed a HR and a single.  In the same inning you had 1985 Gooden give up 2 hits, a walk, and 3 earned runs for you in 2/3 of an inning.  His ERA for you is now 27.00.  Wickman's is 5.87.  1988 Milacki faced one batter in that same inning and gave up a HR.  Basically you had 3 stud pitchers in that inning and couldn't close out a 5-run lead in the 9th, which I am sure is frustrating.  If you want to describe Wickman as getting "lit up", you are certainly entitled to do that.

Some other stuff you omitted.  Let's look at Arellanes vs Wickman. 

Arellanes: OAV# = .219; HR/9# = 0.21
Wickman: OAV# = .230; HR/9# = 0.25

Wickman has a lower WHIP# because of his absurdly low walk totals (and he has walked only 4 batters for you all season in his 23 IP), but where do you draw the conclusion that "according to his great normalized numbers he is SUPPOSEDLY a much better pitcher than Arellanes"?  In a hitters park like Fenway, I would rather pitch Arellanes any day of the week than Wickman, and that's without including the fact that Wickman's very low IP/G severely limits his utility.

Have you checked out his platoon splits for you by the way?  He's getting killed by LHB, whom he's facing more 2/3 of the time.  Have you considered using him as a RH specialist, PC of 5/10, pull setting of 5?

Wow, this conversation is getting down to some nitty gritty details. Perfect.  contrarian, to learn from this post, is the .04 difference in HR/9# of Arellanes and Wickman a large factor in the deal breaker for Arellanes or is it more the difference in OAV#?  I really want to know how finely I should be looking at differences in these various statistics.   Thanks to all for their patience.  

Unless he's clearly outperforming him after 100 or more games. Ha ha ha!!!

I have saved a few seasons via the WW, but it was because I drafted poorly in the first place. Picking up players who were better suited to my strategy and/or ball park improved the team. I have enough seasons played now, that generally, that doesn't happen to me anymore, but sometimes, in the case of unusually harsh fatigue results, I'll make some moves. Broadly speaking, if I think I have the right player, even if he is drastically underperforming, I'll stay with him. Truth be told, that seldom happens. By and large, if you stick 'em in the right ballparks, they do about what they ought to. My biggest exception to this is if I draft a player I have never used before, and he is underperforming, I might look to get what he isn't giving me. For example, if I drafted a poor defensive player, and he isn't hitting, I might pick up a better defender, my logic being that it isn't going to make things worse. But, I have learned a lot about the game by WW usage. Some of my worst underperformers have really come through when the "chips were down," so I am much more patient.