Posted by dahsdebater on 1/12/2012 2:40:00 PM (view original):
I don't know what you mean about saying "sane person" - I don't see how any sane person could be told that the sim stats are not considered in later simulations and still give them any weight whatsoever rather than looking at the RL stats in context.

Without a doubt a player's RL and normalized numbers must be considered and taken into account in making any decisions regarding that player.  But those numbers aren't absolute, nor do they guarantee that they will be reached in any given sim season. In my 3 years on this site, I've heard of many players who, although have out of this world RL and normalized numbers, simply do not "sim well', or who are considered "chronic underperformers", which is a prime example of those numbers not being the all in all. I tend to go by what I can see, as opposed to what I would like or hope to see.  And if a supposed lesser player is doing significantly better than a supposed superstar, and has been doing it all year, I would see no justifiable reason to disregard that fact, nor would I have any indication that he will not continue doing so.  The thing to remember is that in an OL, you're only playing for one season.  I may not be the brightest bulb on the tree when it comes to this game, but I've never heard of any RL GM refusing to upgrade an underachieving team at the trading deadline on the proposition that one-half or two-thirds their season is only a "small sample size".

To respond to Dahsdebaters comment , In my earlier example Carlton was not the point,.nor was the jestful comment of the sanity of someone not using him.  The gratuitus use of the name Carlton was used simply to make a greater point.  And and its not news or a revelation to say that in a vacuum or a situation void of variables  08 Joss is better than Carlton. But the Sim doesn't function in a vacumn.  If a pitcher was to pitch 300 innings to a 0.00 era and a .20 WHIP, he is either the miraculous recipient of an uncanny series of sucessfull events upwards of a million to one OR variables are influencing the outcome (the latter probably being more likely). This likeliness is exactly what forms my opinion.  Here's an example of when some other pitcher is BETTER THAN JOSS............In my most recent LCS about a week ago, I had the option of pitching Joss or 1919 Art Nehf.  Joss is better than Nehf but not lightyears better.  My opponent was platooning and his best hitters were lefties. Down in the series I looked back on my opponents player usage patterns DURING THE REGULAR SEASON and realized he was platooning and sitting his best hitters against lefties.  The advantage gained by using Joss instead of Nehf was NOT greater than the advantage I had by seeing my opponents best hitters remain on the bench as he was plattoning so I decided to start Nehf 3 out of the last 5 games in the series maybe it's the chess player in me but.. ...Thank goodness I didn't put my team on the "Just go by the back of my players baseball cards" autopilot because ,...... ....... A lights out Nehf went 3-0 in the series........and it WAS clearly based on stats.

Posted by contrarian23 on 1/14/2012 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Weird things happen with rookies because of how WIS normalizes them.


My original point still holds. When it comes to choosing players I use underlying stats 100% and previous SIM performance 0%.

There was actually an owner in a recent OL who claimed he could tell if he had a good or bad version of Joss within 3 starts.

Posted by contrarian23 on 1/14/2012 11:24:00 AM (view original):
Crimsonblue - that's a great explanation.  It's also completely justified based on expected performance from the underlying stats of the player in the particular situation you described.

Which is very very very different from saying "I know player X has better stats across the board than player Y, but player Y has performed better so far in the SIM, so I am going to use player Y." 

Most owners here would completely agree with the first decision.  And I for one would completely disagree with the second one.

I love the second scenario, and here's an example of it.  I'm about to wrap up in an OL. The team is 89-57, is in first place and has the div locked up.  My drafted 2B is 99 Jose Vidro.  In 329 ABs, he's hitting .313, with a .373 OBP, a .429 slgpct and has 11 error and 9 minus plays.  However, my AAA 2b, in 316 ABs is hitting .345, with a .397 obp and a.424 slgpct with 11 doubles and 6 triples.  Most importantly, despite supposedly being a D- range guy, he's made only 4 minus plays and has just 2 errors.

Now, who do you think I'm starting in the playoffs?  That's right...my AAA guy!!!