Yadier Molina was also a consensus pick for first in catching

Posted by dahsdebater on 10/31/2012 7:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't see why you can't put anyone other than Trout or Jones in the mix?  What about some of the other guys I mentioned?  In particular Denard Span and Alejandro De Aza, who I think were both better than Trout or Jones this year.

Where are you getting De Aza from?  Maybe he just hasn't played well in center against the Tigers, but I've seen him run some awful routes.  He's never outplayed Austin Jackson in Tigers/White Sox games.  He didn't receive any votes in the Fielding Bible awards.  UZR has had him at -2.5 this year.

Posted by Jtpsops on 10/31/2012 10:41:00 AM (view original):
I could say the same about you and the Os. Yadiers a great catcher and very good defensively. I'm not trashing him. Wieters is just better from a defensive standpoint.

what, exactly are you using as proof of this?

iInnings - Molina 1161.1 Weiters 1188.2
Assists - Molina 88 Weiters 52
Errors - Molina 3 Weiters 10
DPs - Molina 12 Weiters 7
Fld% Molina .997  Weiters .991
RF/9 Molina 8.14 Weiters 7.92
CS% Molina 48% Weiters 39%
DWAR Molina - 2.6  Weiters 1.3  -- Most people (myself included) believe that this is far from an accurate stat
Pitcher ERA  Molina 3.60  Weiters 3.79

I know that these stats are far from perfect and not definitive in any way, but when they all lean one way, i think its significant
Weiters is clearly excellent behind the dish, he just isnt Yadier Molina.

RF/9 and pitcher ERA are a huge stretch to be considered meaningful stats for comparison, particularly across teams.  The vast majority of the catcher's range is a result of strikeouts, so it's not like a high-range catcher was actually better at getting to balls.  The ability to get to a few extra popups is basically background noise compared to the difference between K-rates for different pitching staffs.  And CERA is also far more pitcher-dependent than catcher-dependent.  In fact, you could even argue that CS% depends heavily on the pitchers as well.  I think the Cardinals pitchers ARE better at holding runners than than the O's pitchers, but the O's were much better the past few years than they had been for a long time.  I still think Yadier is the better defensive catcher, but at catcher moreso than any other position I think you really need to judge based on the eye test rather than the numbers.

I agree that defensive stats for catchers should be taken with a grain of salt.  But I think the 88 assists are telling, and Molina usually has a very high CS%, regardless of the pitcher.

As for the eye test, I agree that's what has to be used here.  Which is why I believe Molina is better.

I think Yadier's the best catcher, but I think Wieters is better defensively - that's my opinion. I'm certainly not trashing anyone who says Yadier's better. It's clear that both are the two best defensive catchers in the game.

If anything I would say that maybe Wieters has a higher ceiling offensively, Molina had a career year this year but for the most part he doesn't feature much aside from the ability to hit for a decent average.  But Molina is the best defensive catcher I've ever seen.

On a totally different note, the Angels look likely to dangle Kendrys Morales.  I think he'd look great in the middle of the Baltimore lineup.  They want young pitching, we've got young pitching.  Maybe they'd take Chen or Britton, either of whom I'd give up in a heartbeat.  Especially if Morales signs an extension, then maybe I'd toss in Arrieta.

Why? Morales is injury prone and the O's are always heavy on 1B/DH type guys. I'd rather them make a play for Napoli. And Chen was our most consistent starter last season. Could he get hit hard next season? Ya. But if Adair works with him on his location, to keep his stuff out of the middle of the plate, he's got the stuff to succeed. Britton is an interesting chip. I think he's got value still - the O's have to decide if he's gonna finally turn a corner or if they have another Daniel Cabrera/Erik Bedard/etc. on their hands. With Bundy and Gausman in the wings, I hope they sell now on Britton before he kills any value he has.

I know Duquette won't do it, but I'd love to see the O's put together a package of 3-4 non-essential players for Shields and see if the Rays bite. I could see them going after Haren or Lohse if the market isn't ridiculous.

I could see that, hopefully Lohse since Haren has always been homer-prone.  I don't think the Rays will trade Shields in the division unless we massively overpay, which I obviously don't want to do.  I like Morales better than Napoli because he gets on base more consistently.  Not walks more, but he can actually hit for average so he winds up on base more than the average MLB player.  Napoli has always been the same sort of low-average, relies on walks and power type that Reynolds is.  His 2011 season looks like an anomaly given that his numbers for the rest of his career appear similar - has good power, walks enough, hits about .230-.235.  Also has some injury history and has never played a truly full season.  I'd rather have Reynolds with his superior defense and injury history than Napoli.

Morales isn't injury prone.  He's only ever missed meaningful time for one injury, and it was obtained jumping on home plate, not actually playing the game.  If he doesn't do anything stupid he should be fine.

I hope not too.  If McLouth comes back then Reimold can DH, maybe he can do a better job of staying healthy if he doesn't have to play the field and go diving into the stands.  I would be perfectly happy to see Reynolds come back.  I feel the exact same way about him that you do - his hitting this year was close to his absolute floor, the odds are in an average season he's still going to hit something like .240/.330/.470 with 35 or 40 homers, and that's really nothing to sneeze at.  I think he draws too much heat because of his strikeouts.  All the time O's fans tell me they don't like him because he strands too many runners.  Truth is, he had a better average with RISP this season than any other Oriole regular other than Chris Davis (and Machado if you consider him a regular).  His OBP was something like .389 with RISP.  He really has a good approach to hitting, he has a great command of the strike zone, and he knows what he wants to do and commits to it.  His biggest problem is extremely poor pitch recognition.  He swings over most breaking balls, but at least he can hit the hangers.  Felix Pie had such bad pitch recognition he'd swing and miss at hanging curveballs more times than I care to remember...

I like the Casilla signing. Has the makings of some of the underrated moves Duquette made last season. Casilla's D is better than Flaherty and Andino, he'll probably hit as well or better average-wise, but will hit less HR. Any guy who can steal bases at a 95% clip, I'll take. The O's were horrible last season at stealing/manufacturing runs. I'd be happy with Casilla hitting 9th, stealing bases ahead of McLouth/Markakis and especially Hardy, who is a double play machine. I know it's lefty-lefty, but I'd much rather see McLouth and Markakis 1-2 next season and Hardy at 5 or 6.

As for 2B, I like Flaherty and hope he's back as a utility guy. I would not be the least bit sad if Andino wasn't back next year. He's a decent super-sub option but he's somehow become very overrated the last couple seasons.

Fox Sports/ SI reporting the Os are making a serious play for Hamilton. Surprises me a bit, but what an addition if healthy. My biggest concern is another Albert Belle type contract. Os also targeting Cody Ross which makes zero sense if McClouth has any interest in returning.

Not interested in Hamilton.  At all.  According to Forbes the Orioles current pre-tax profits are around $13 million/yr.  Hamilton will eat all of that up and most of the additional revenues that might be expected after 1 winning season all by himself.  Between his substance abuse issues which relapsed within the last year, his injury-prone nature, and the fact that before this year he'd never actually hit more than 32 home runs, he seems like too big of a risk for the cost for a lower mid-market team like Baltimore.  I'd rather spread the money out, get a couple of guys.  My favorites are:

1) Anibal Sanchez - it's not just his end of the 2012 season, he's looked good to me for the past 3 years as he's finally been able to stay healthy.  Has much better stuff and is younger than the likes of Lohse, is much more consistent than Edwin Jackson, and will come at a fraction of the Greinke pricetag.  Maybe 3 years, $36 million.

2) Nate McLouth - bring him back, shouldn't cost too much, $4 or $4.5 million maybe, see if he can stay hot.  He looked very good in a Baltimore uniform, he'd allow Reimold to DH and maybe have half a shot at staying healthy, and he's a better defender anyway.

3) Lance Berkman - Yes, he's old.  I get that.  But he's still a great OBP guy, and we desperately need that.  I wouldn't even try to play him against lefties.  Give him 2 starts a week against righties at first, any other righties at DH.  Since 2005 the following players with at least 500 GP have better OBPs than Lance Berkman: Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Nick Johnson (!), Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton.  That's it.  If you think he's getting too old, can't keep it up, here's the guys from the last 3 seasons only: Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Fielder, Bautista, Mauer, Ortiz.  None of those guys are available.  And one last filter: last 3 seasons, vs R, the only 3 guys who get on base more than Lance Berkman are Votto, Fielder, and Mauer.

4) Joakim Soria - I've always thought he looks like a starter.  My old scouting report on this guy, from before I got to grad school and stopped having time to scout players I'd never have opportunities to make decisions on, has him at about a 55-60 fastball velocity but 65-70 fastball command with a decent cutter and 3 above-average to plus offspeed pitches.  That's a top-of-the-rotation scouting report.  He's only made a handful of starts as a professional, but he did throw a perfect game in his Winter League in 2006.  And for his first 4 years in the bigs, while fully healthy, his combined ERA was just barely over 2.  Bring him in on a 2 year contract for $8 million with a vesting option for a third season at $8-$10 million if he's thrown, say, 180 total innings in the first 2 seasons.  Let him fight Johnson for the closer's role in 2013, then stretch him out and see if he can fight his way into the rotation for '14.

5) Mike Adams - I'm suspicious he'll wind up signing something like a 2-year, $5 million deal.  Even if it's a few million more than that, he's well worth it.  Absolutely stud arm.  And if you do sign 2 bullpen pitchers you can shop our 51-save closer with the 3+ ERA.  Some guys might overrate the counting stat and ignore the ERA and WHIP that look fairly average for a late-inning bullpen arm, maybe he brings back a real quality prospect.

If Boston doesn't sign Hamilon, I'd love to see him in Baltimore.