I very rarely read the forum, or post, but if I see a poster I recognize (which is rarer and rarer these days) I'll pop in and take a look. Couldn't help but be interested in this topic. I have always loved the counter-forum theories. Certainly playing target is counter forum, and is worth due consideration.
It's been a while since I've tried target, but I have played all eleven of my teams for (near) entire seasons that way, fairly recently. I always come to the same conclusions.
Target doesn't deal well with fouls (or injuries).
The better you set you lineup, using all four spots wisely, the less this is an issue.
It helps if you have players you want to play less than their stamina might warrant.
But, the biggest issue I always come back to, and anyone playing target now can confirm or deny this, the problem is players stay in too long in target, so you have players, even in a normal balanced 2-2-2-2-2 rotation of ten players with better than average stamina playing some of the game tired, those same players never play tired under fatigue. The amount of 'fatigue' subbing is wrong and completely unrealistic as it often is near every minute, rather than the once or twice per half that normal NCAA coaches sub rotations in and out, but it keeps the players as fresh as possible. Target minutes nets more realistic box score subbing patterns, but that really doesn't matter.
I think one of the reasons the designers went to fatigue was to lessen the FCP's effectiveness. One of the old biggest edges press gave a coach, was the ability to wear out (or break the opponent). Now, unless the coach is really inept, or maybe playing target, or playing with 8 or 9 men, its near impossible to wear out a 12 man team of even modest stamina playing fatigue. This is too bad, as the old 'target' game was much more fun, and was a level of strategy that certainly existed. So was the 'old' practice plans, as in the old days a coach could recruit almost anyone, and by the end of 4 years, by improving the right things, develop a much better team than the coaches who didn't know how to grow a championship team. We simply recruit them now.
I'd love to hear from someone that Target minutes is actually working again, someone who is winning lots of NT's. I haven't read anything here that says that, mostly reading that it can work OK under the right circumstances. But, my curiosity is peaked, I'll probably run a few teams with it for 10 games or so. I can tell pretty quickly if it's working or not (when a 80 stam type guy hasn't come out for ten minutes and is set to 23-28 and is red or orange in the PBP, while the opponent has a 70 stam guy playing the same minutes in the game, all green, that is a pretty tell tale sign).
Good topic, keep thinking out of the box, as it is by far the best way to win at this. My Godfather was a champion card player, his motto, good players play by the conventions, great players learn the conventions, then they learn when and how to break them.