Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/24/2012 4:34:00 PM (view original):
I think we are mostly in agreement, and yes NT is generally the bare minimum for EE. 28-1 missing NT/PIT, even with a 900 rated C and great cores, and he probably stay.

I don't think we are comparing apples to apples because we are not comparing similar teams. The question is not what separates the FF team in Pac 10 and the NC runner up in Big 12 in terms of EE, but what causes the 3-5 top midmajor players (which is probably the whole pool of midmajor players that could play on NT caliber BCS teams) to go early while only about 20% of similar BCS players on NT teams left early. From what I see, it's a combination of team win total and conf awards + a small random factor. 

To make things more clear, look at this player. What caused him to go early on a PIT 3rd round team, when there are probably 100 other similar guard with same or better cores, and much better lp/reb # to stay. It's definitely the conf and national awards. This coach had to ride this guy in order to win games, and as a result, lost him early. Meanwhile, the 50 better pg/sg/sf on BCS conf gets to stay because they dont' have to load distro on one guy. Some kind of conf strength need to be taken into account. 

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13775&pid=2077048

I think you're really overstating things.

I don't agree that the 3-5 top mid-major guys go early. A few mid-major guys go early every season, they're all good, but similar to the BCS, it's not all the best guys.

And the really huge overstatement is the notion that the mid-major guys that go early comprise the whole pool of mid-major players that could play on tournament-caliber BCS teams. I think that's ridiuclous and totally off base. If that's how you're evaluating things, then that really explains why we have a big gap there, because I don't believe that evaluation at all reflects reality.

Really -- how many players in our conference alone could play on a tournament level BCS squad? A lot. And that's just one conference.

Posted by girt25 on 4/24/2012 4:39:00 PM (view original):
Really -- how many players in our conference alone could play on a tournament level BCS squad? A lot. And that's just one conference.

The conf with #1 rpi is of course going to have alot of BCS quality players. Just because CUSA isn't labeled as BCS doesn't mean it's not BCS. Compare the typical non-BCS conf with 1 bid or 2 bids, aggregate the # of EE and compare the ratio of EE to quality players, you would see that the ratio is much higher than the EE/quality players in BCS. 

Girt, can we agree that the typical EE ratings for bigs are around 85 ath/reb/def/blk/lp, 90ath/spd and 85+per/bh/p for guards, with maybe 1 or 2 categories being off by 10-15 points? How many such players exist in 1 or 2 bid non-bcs conf in a typical season, in total? 3-5, at most 8? 

How many such players exist in BCS conf? 50?

Edit: I did a search of top 300 PF/C in Allen D1 (I have scouted alot of states so I have fairly accurate potential on players). There are 32 FR PF/C that are already very close to 80 across all bigs cores, or will get to it by JR year based on potential (assuming average potential = 12). Among the 32, only 2 of them are signed by non-BCS conf teams (and one of them might not make it, with starting lp at only 47 and I can't see his potential), so it could be 31/1. The # of potential EE candidates for Bigs are pretty much only recruited by BCS conf, with a couple missed, allowing weaker conf teams to grab them. Every world is different, of course, but I think it would be hard pressed to find more than 5 EE quality bigs in 1 and  2 bid conf in most worlds at a given time. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/24/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
2011 NBA EE. Most of the midmajor or weaker conf EE, ended up withdrawing and went back to school. The few who did go EE were due to personal circumstances (dismissed from team, sexual assault charges, have a child to take care of).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/basketball/nba/04/28/early.entry.classifications/index.html

So if I'm reading this correctly, you are asking for dilemmas to be reintroduced into the game in order to bring a touch of realism into the midmajor early entries.

Good idea.  I think that would probably fix most, if not all, the problems addressed in this thread.  There were zero complaints about early entries the first time around that we had dilemmas.  No humans were in D1 either, but that's petty details.

Posted by kujayhawk on 4/24/2012 6:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/24/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
2011 NBA EE. Most of the midmajor or weaker conf EE, ended up withdrawing and went back to school. The few who did go EE were due to personal circumstances (dismissed from team, sexual assault charges, have a child to take care of).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/basketball/nba/04/28/early.entry.classifications/index.html

So if I'm reading this correctly, you are asking for dilemmas to be reintroduced into the game in order to bring a touch of realism into the midmajor early entries.

Good idea.  I think that would probably fix most, if not all, the problems addressed in this thread.  There were zero complaints about early entries the first time around that we had dilemmas.  No humans were in D1 either, but that's petty details.

I'm simply pointing out that a legitimate EE from minor conf in real life is rare, but happens 4 to 5 times per season in HD. My point is midmajor EE is way out of whack in HD. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/24/2012 6:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kujayhawk on 4/24/2012 6:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 4/24/2012 2:51:00 PM (view original):
2011 NBA EE. Most of the midmajor or weaker conf EE, ended up withdrawing and went back to school. The few who did go EE were due to personal circumstances (dismissed from team, sexual assault charges, have a child to take care of).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/basketball/nba/04/28/early.entry.classifications/index.html

So if I'm reading this correctly, you are asking for dilemmas to be reintroduced into the game in order to bring a touch of realism into the midmajor early entries.

Good idea.  I think that would probably fix most, if not all, the problems addressed in this thread.  There were zero complaints about early entries the first time around that we had dilemmas.  No humans were in D1 either, but that's petty details.

I'm simply pointing out that a legitimate EE from minor conf in real life is rare, but happens 4 to 5 times per season in HD. My point is midmajor EE is way out of whack in HD. 

I knew that's what you were pointing out.  My point was complete snark.

Although to perhaps offer a differing viewpoint.  2011 didn't have much for the non-BCS schools but ...

2010
9 - Gordon Hayward
10 - Paul George
16 - Luke Babbitt
22 - Elliot Williams (via Duke)
27 - Jordan Crawford
33 - Hassan Whiteside
34 - Armon Johnson

2009
4 - Tyreke Evans
7 - Stephen Curry
15 - Austin Daye
55 - Patty Mills

2008
1 - Derrick Rose
18 - JaVale McGee
26 - George Hill
40 - Chris Douglas-Roberts


All of that said, I really don't care what real life says.  What matters most is what is best for the game and that would suggest more BCS players in HD declare.  Ignoring for a second what is best for the game, I'd also argue what is best for WIS' bottom line is to not further alienate the mid-major coaches who are already displeased with the game.

Agreed with kujay ... (a) it does happen in real life and (b) who cares, let's do what's best for HD.

in iba, 20 EEs, 2 from non big 6 conferences.  the two were my guard at St Francis and a player from Dayton (A- prestige, elite 8 exit).

i didn't think the G would go because the season before, had a C with similar profile (90+ in key areas Reb/Blk/LP, 2nd team AA, NT team 1st Rd exit) who stayed.  anyway, based on girt and tianyi's ensuing discussion, i can see how the G would be considered for EE.  hopefully, he'll get drafted and with it a boost in prestige.  

i can find other Gs who had better stats, ratings, and team performance who did not go EE.  so the recipe for who goes and stays seems a bit murky yet.  not unlike other aspects of the game.  i can accept the uncertainty.

But they were also the best players and put up huge stats, which was my initial point kujay. If we had a 950 rated EE leave from my team, I would be absolutely fine with that. We are not seeing that in HD. Instead, it's the 700 rated bigs leaving when there are 20 other bigs with similar cores, rated in the 800-1000 range, who are staying put in BCS conf. That's a little absurd. Here is what I got from CS in terms of EE:

"The overwhelmingly biggest factor is ratings (weighted by position). While team success and awards are also factored in, it's a relatively small piece of the puzzle. Stats of course are a major component of awards, but that is offset somewhat by a factor of team rank. 

The national awards this season in Phelan seem to be predominantly elite school players, so I'm not sure there's much of an issue there.

Certainly there's room for improvement, as there is in many aspects of the game, but I don't think the early entry system is that bad as it stands now."

When there are 30 EE quality bigs with the similar position/core ratings, the team success and awards factor becomes the only thing that matters, because ratings are essentially equal. When the engine ends up deciding between a 90 core big for a successful non-BCS team and the 90 core big for a mediocre BCS team, it goes with the non-BCS because awards and team wins tipped the scale. 

In Phelan D1, I'm only seeing 2 bigs from non-bcs conf with 80+ in ath/reb/def/blk/lp, and they both went early. A 3rd big also went only with 79/92/84/69/98. These are the only non-BCS EE worthy bigs, and they all leave. Meanwhile, there are 20 or so BCS bigs that have similar core, much higher overall that stayed. This is pretty unbalanced.

Posted by fungobatboy on 4/24/2012 10:10:00 PM (view original):
in iba, 20 EEs, 2 from non big 6 conferences.  the two were my guard at St Francis and a player from Dayton (A- prestige, elite 8 exit).

i didn't think the G would go because the season before, had a C with similar profile (90+ in key areas Reb/Blk/LP, 2nd team AA, NT team 1st Rd exit) who stayed.  anyway, based on girt and tianyi's ensuing discussion, i can see how the G would be considered for EE.  hopefully, he'll get drafted and with it a boost in prestige.  

i can find other Gs who had better stats, ratings, and team performance who did not go EE.  so the recipe for who goes and stays seems a bit murky yet.  not unlike other aspects of the game.  i can accept the uncertainty.

Your C has too big of a hole in ath/def to go EE. If Ath/def were both 75+, I'm pretty sure he would have left last season. 

Posted by fungobatboy on 4/24/2012 10:10:00 PM (view original):
in iba, 20 EEs, 2 from non big 6 conferences.  the two were my guard at St Francis and a player from Dayton (A- prestige, elite 8 exit).

i didn't think the G would go because the season before, had a C with similar profile (90+ in key areas Reb/Blk/LP, 2nd team AA, NT team 1st Rd exit) who stayed.  anyway, based on girt and tianyi's ensuing discussion, i can see how the G would be considered for EE.  hopefully, he'll get drafted and with it a boost in prestige.  

i can find other Gs who had better stats, ratings, and team performance who did not go EE.  so the recipe for who goes and stays seems a bit murky yet.  not unlike other aspects of the game.  i can accept the uncertainty.

There is a player personality element and a randomness element. We'll never have the exact recipe, nor do I think we should.

Posted by girt25 on 4/25/2012 7:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by fungobatboy on 4/24/2012 10:10:00 PM (view original):
in iba, 20 EEs, 2 from non big 6 conferences.  the two were my guard at St Francis and a player from Dayton (A- prestige, elite 8 exit).

i didn't think the G would go because the season before, had a C with similar profile (90+ in key areas Reb/Blk/LP, 2nd team AA, NT team 1st Rd exit) who stayed.  anyway, based on girt and tianyi's ensuing discussion, i can see how the G would be considered for EE.  hopefully, he'll get drafted and with it a boost in prestige.  

i can find other Gs who had better stats, ratings, and team performance who did not go EE.  so the recipe for who goes and stays seems a bit murky yet.  not unlike other aspects of the game.  i can accept the uncertainty.

There is a player personality element and a randomness element. We'll never have the exact recipe, nor do I think we should.

agreed - should be randomness - but the process could be better if there were real clues to the odds in the evals and coaches calls.  Like different sets of words (written in the usual amuzing and opaque way) that would mean - roughly - based on personality if he qualifies for EE -  he's almost certain to go, 80% chance, 60% chance, etc.....

we also have to remember midmajors get better players in WIS than in real life.... for instance TSU would never get Husman in real life, or heck or most of the other guys on my phelan team.

While we're on the subject of stupid parts of the game, I'd like to nominate GPA for its randomness and the whole redshirt process.