Rasmussen and Polling Topic

The Rasmussen Poll

In 2010, Rasmussen was rated by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com as the most inaccurate and biased major polling organization.  This year, Rasmussen continues to produce results that appear to skew in a Republican direction and this is certainly true of Rasmussen’s polling on party identification.  

At the beginning of every month, Rasmussen reports its monthly results on the distribution of party identification in the entire American voting age population based on some 15,000 interviews.  So far this year, Rasmussen has reported a Republican advantage in party identification every single month from January through July.  The Republican advantage has ranged between 1 point and 3 points with an average of 2 points.  

Rasmussen is the only polling organization to show a Republican advantage in party identification this year.  Although Rasmussen has never explained how they identify likely voters from their initial sample of the voting age population, one can only assume that their presidential preference results among likely voters reflect the Republican skew of their initial sample of voting age adults.

Keep drinking the Kool-Ade fellas.

8/19/2012 8:44 AM
In fairness to Rasmussen, maybe they just assume a certain amount of voter suppression when determining likely voters.
8/19/2012 12:12 PM

does this polling company get their funding from Koch Industries or one of their "AstroTurf" organizations?

8/19/2012 12:50 PM
How about the fact that Rasmussen nailed 2000, 2004 and 2008.

No one else did as well by a wide margin.

How can we turn a bad season, and a lot of people were very wrong about 2010, into an attack against Rasmussen's system.

8/19/2012 1:10 PM
Posted by genghisxcon on 8/19/2012 12:12:00 PM (view original):
In fairness to Rasmussen, maybe they just assume a certain amount of voter suppression when determining likely voters.
+1
8/19/2012 1:51 PM
Posted by swamphawk22 on 8/19/2012 1:10:00 PM (view original):
How about the fact that Rasmussen nailed 2000, 2004 and 2008.

No one else did as well by a wide margin.

How can we turn a bad season, and a lot of people were very wrong about 2010, into an attack against Rasmussen's system.

-10000000000000
8/19/2012 1:51 PM
Posted by jiml60 on 8/19/2012 1:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by swamphawk22 on 8/19/2012 1:10:00 PM (view original):
How about the fact that Rasmussen nailed 2000, 2004 and 2008.

No one else did as well by a wide margin.

How can we turn a bad season, and a lot of people were very wrong about 2010, into an attack against Rasmussen's system.

-10000000000000
Cmon Jim, explain why.

I think you are just trying to keep the truth down that people no longer have faith in Obama.

So why is all the past success of Rasmussen now irrelevant?
8/19/2012 3:18 PM
Established on March 7, 2008, as FiveThirtyEight.com, in August 2010 the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus.
8/19/2012 3:23 PM
The NY Times out and out lies in their news articles and are not to be believed.  Please find a reliable news source proving this, seamar and don't believe what The Weekly World News tells you.
8/19/2012 3:26 PM
iow, they don't tell teh Tea Party what they want to hear.
8/19/2012 3:48 PM
Posted by seamar_116 on 8/19/2012 8:44:00 AM (view original):

The Rasmussen Poll

In 2010, Rasmussen was rated by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com as the most inaccurate and biased major polling organization.  This year, Rasmussen continues to produce results that appear to skew in a Republican direction and this is certainly true of Rasmussen’s polling on party identification.  

At the beginning of every month, Rasmussen reports its monthly results on the distribution of party identification in the entire American voting age population based on some 15,000 interviews.  So far this year, Rasmussen has reported a Republican advantage in party identification every single month from January through July.  The Republican advantage has ranged between 1 point and 3 points with an average of 2 points.  

Rasmussen is the only polling organization to show a Republican advantage in party identification this year.  Although Rasmussen has never explained how they identify likely voters from their initial sample of the voting age population, one can only assume that their presidential preference results among likely voters reflect the Republican skew of their initial sample of voting age adults.

Keep drinking the Kool-Ade fellas.

None of the other polling companies can come up with any argument that there is a higher Dem identification.  And Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling company in the last 20 years.  The other polls are jokes.  Which is why Dems cried in 2000 and 2004.  All the other polls oversampled Dems and Inds like crazy.  Which is why Dems have to resort to fantasy like Repub voter fraud.  Which is especially funny, because whenever you read about voter fraud, it's a Dem going to jail.
8/19/2012 4:42 PM

Sunday, August 19, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

This is the lowest level of support for Romney since March. So far, in the month of August, support for both Romney and Obama has stayed in a very narrow range between 43% and 47%. See daily tracking history.

Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 84% of Democrats. The president has a 10-point edge among unaffiliated voters. 

Obama also has the lead in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. This includes new numbers from Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio.



If Rasmussen is over-estimating the number of Republican voters, then this is very, very bad news for Romney. And, it is almost a must that he sweep all of the swing states.

8/19/2012 6:45 PM (edited)
The following is from the same source (Wiki) that Swamp used when touting how awesome Rasmussen is:

<<Rasmussen's prediction for the 2000 presidential election was off by 4.5%,[35] compared to the average 1.1% margin of error most other national polls gave at the time.[36]>>




8/19/2012 6:42 PM
And good luck gaining a majority in the Senate with guys like this running:

The GOPs Senate nominee in Missouri, Rep. Todd Akin:  “First of all, from what I understand from doctors [pregnancy from rape] is really rare,” Akin told KTVI-TV in an interview posted Sunday. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”

Just curious how that all works, biologically speaking. I was not aware that "I don't want to be pregnant" was an effective contraceptive
8/19/2012 6:58 PM
Posted by seamar_116 on 8/19/2012 6:42:00 PM (view original):
The following is from the same source (Wiki) that Swamp used when touting how awesome Rasmussen is:

<<Rasmussen's prediction for the 2000 presidential election was off by 4.5%,[35] compared to the average 1.1% margin of error most other national polls gave at the time.[36]>>




How dare you confront swamp with facts.
8/19/2012 8:43 PM
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