Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP Topic

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
You don't understand how base running stats are calculated.
I somehow doubt a runner "creates" an extra 7 runs on the basepaths via the SB and taking the extra base.
Over an entire season? That doesn't seem too hard. If a guy is fast and has good instincts, stealing 49 bases and only being caught 4 times in addition to the extra bases he picks up on hits could easily lead to 7 more runs than a replacement (read: bad) base runner would give you.
10/3/2012 1:46 PM
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
10/3/2012 1:47 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
I don't know if there is a WPA equivalent for base running. Look into it.
10/3/2012 1:52 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:24:00 PM (view original):
Makes more sense to you because you're a statnerd.   Playoffs makes more sense to me because I'm a team-oriented guy.  If you're not contributing to a common goal, or you fail in reaching that common goal, you're less valuable.

The knock on A-Roid was always how he comes up big when it doesn't matter.   A stat-compiler.  

I'll say it again, Trout had a fine season.  Not a historical season.   Since he's not going to be on the TV in October, no one will remember his season in a few years.  If Cabrera comes up big, or stinks out loud, in October, people will recall his Triple Crown or his near TC. 
You're still downplaying Trout's performance by saying it's "not a historical season".

From baseball-reference.com, I'm only counting seven players in the past 40 years who have posted a higher season WAR than Trout has this season.  And two of those are Barry Bonds' 'roided-up 2001-2002 seasons, so I'd throw them out.

FYI . . .

Joe Morgan (1975) - 10.8
Dwight Gooden (1985) - 13.0
Cal Ripken (1991) - 11.3
Roger Clemens (1997) - 11.8
Pedro Martinez (2000) - 11.4

For a position player, one can use these numbers to argue that Trout has had one of the three best seasons (again, discounting Bonds) of any position player over the past 40 years.

That can be considered somewhat historical.

A little more detail.

Position players since 1928 with WAR of 10.7 or higher:

Mike Trout (2012) - 10.7
Barry Bonds (2002) - 11.6
Barry Bonds (2001) - 11.6
Cal Ripken (1991) - 11.3
Joe Morgan (1975) - 10.8
Carl Yastrzemski (1967) - 12.0
Willie Mays (1965) - 10.9
Willie Mays (1964) - 10.7
Mickey Mantle (1957) - 11.1
Mickey Mantle (1956) - 11.0
Stan Musial (1948) - 10.8
Ted Williams (1946) - 10.7

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_top_ten.shtml

That's only 11 seasons of 10.7+ over the past 85 years.

Sounds "historical" to me.

Also, a couple of guys named Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby and Cobb also had a shitload (9, actually) of 10.7+ seasons between 1917 and 1927.

10/3/2012 1:58 PM (edited)
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
10/3/2012 1:56 PM

tec, I'm glad you brought up Joe Morgan.   Look at his '75 and '76 stats.   Which looks "more valuable" to you?  Which season has the higher WAR?

I'm not denying that WAR has value.   But it's not the be all to end all.

10/3/2012 1:56 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
Sure.  If he adds that run in a 4-3 loss that becomes a 5-4 win, I think it's more valuable.

And, if he does that a couple of times, I'm not talking about playoffs vs. golf dates.
10/3/2012 1:59 PM
I'm not sure how reliable defensive stats are from the 70's. But that's a good point, WAR isn't a be all to end all stat.

But it is a decent yardstick, especially as defensive metrics improve. And it shows that there is a significant difference in value between Trout and Cabrera this year.
10/3/2012 2:02 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
Sure.  If he adds that run in a 4-3 loss that becomes a 5-4 win, I think it's more valuable.

And, if he does that a couple of times, I'm not talking about playoffs vs. golf dates.
So do we need to pour through the play-by-play of 162 games to determine who did what, and when?  Or do we look at cumulative totals and averages of stats, like we've always done?
10/3/2012 2:04 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how reliable defensive stats are from the 70's. But that's a good point, WAR isn't a be all to end all stat.

But it is a decent yardstick, especially as defensive metrics improve. And it shows that there is a significant difference in value between Trout and Cabrera this year.
The significant difference comes from CF vs 3B.   Every year.    Trout looks like a slightly above average CF and, shockingly, Cabrera was only a slightly below average 3B.

Beyond that, this could be an exceptionally weak CF class this year with a strong 3B class.   Replacement player value is skewed like that.   Thus WAR is skewed.
10/3/2012 2:08 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
Sure.  If he adds that run in a 4-3 loss that becomes a 5-4 win, I think it's more valuable.

And, if he does that a couple of times, I'm not talking about playoffs vs. golf dates.
So do we need to pour through the play-by-play of 162 games to determine who did what, and when?  Or do we look at cumulative totals and averages of stats, like we've always done?
Are you implying that we shouldn't put in full effort to determine who is most valuable?

Why are you even taking part in this discussion?
10/3/2012 2:09 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):

tec, I'm glad you brought up Joe Morgan.   Look at his '75 and '76 stats.   Which looks "more valuable" to you?  Which season has the higher WAR?

I'm not denying that WAR has value.   But it's not the be all to end all.

Offensively, very similar.  More hits and walks in '75 to give him a higher OBP than in '76, but 10 more home runs in '76 that drives his OPS up significantly.  Offensively, 1976 gets a slight edge.

Defensively, he was weaker in the field in '76 with more errors in fewer touches of the ball, as evidenced by a noticably lower range factor.  Hence the difference in dWAR of 2.0 in 1975 and 0.3 in 1976.

Arguably, he was a more complete player in 1975.
10/3/2012 2:11 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
Sure.  If he adds that run in a 4-3 loss that becomes a 5-4 win, I think it's more valuable.

And, if he does that a couple of times, I'm not talking about playoffs vs. golf dates.
So do we need to pour through the play-by-play of 162 games to determine who did what, and when?  Or do we look at cumulative totals and averages of stats, like we've always done?
Are you implying that we shouldn't put in full effort to determine who is most valuable?

Why are you even taking part in this discussion?
Can you share your detailed findings from your exhaustive analysis of the PBP from all 1,330 plate appearances for Cabrera and Trout this season, broken down by game situations and results, with the rest of the class?

Thanks in advance.
10/3/2012 2:17 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 10/3/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure how reliable defensive stats are from the 70's. But that's a good point, WAR isn't a be all to end all stat.

But it is a decent yardstick, especially as defensive metrics improve. And it shows that there is a significant difference in value between Trout and Cabrera this year.
The significant difference comes from CF vs 3B.   Every year.    Trout looks like a slightly above average CF and, shockingly, Cabrera was only a slightly below average 3B.

Beyond that, this could be an exceptionally weak CF class this year with a strong 3B class.   Replacement player value is skewed like that.   Thus WAR is skewed.
This thread has been very entertaining to read, thanks all.

Mike you've mentioned a few times that Trout looks like a slightly above average CF...what I'm looking at says he's near GG quality.  It also says that Cabrera's one of the worst defensive 3B in baseball.
10/3/2012 2:19 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 2:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 2:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2012 1:47:00 PM (view original):
But when do those runs come? In a vacuum it means nothing. Maybe he added a run in a game the Angels won 5-1. How much value is in that?
It's the same value as a home run in the 8th inning of a 12-1 win.  Do you want to go there?
Sure.  If he adds that run in a 4-3 loss that becomes a 5-4 win, I think it's more valuable.

And, if he does that a couple of times, I'm not talking about playoffs vs. golf dates.
So do we need to pour through the play-by-play of 162 games to determine who did what, and when?  Or do we look at cumulative totals and averages of stats, like we've always done?
Are you implying that we shouldn't put in full effort to determine who is most valuable?

Why are you even taking part in this discussion?
Can you share your detailed findings from your exhaustive analysis of the PBP from all 1,330 plate appearances for Cabrera and Trout this season, broken down by game situations and results, with the rest of the class?

Thanks in advance.
I'm still analyzing tape.   Wait here.
10/3/2012 2:22 PM
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Ripping off ESPN -> Trout vs Cabrera MVP Topic

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