Posted by tecwrg on 9/29/2014 10:52:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/29/2014 10:44:00 AM (view original):
Probably third. Maybe the Yankees will make the playoffs now that he's back.

ARod has played a whopping 265 MLB games during the past four seasons, and will turn 40 next season.

I'm not expecting much of anything from him.

The Yankees would be better off paying him to not play.

I disagree. They have to pay Arod regardless. Over his last 1000 or so PAs, he's hitting .269/.356/.441 with a 115 OPS+. That's basically what you'd expect to get from Pablo Sandoval without having to sign Pablo Sandoval. 

Getting that production from a player already under contract could be the difference between signing Scherzer or having to settle for De La Rosa.

Those numbers came when he was 35-38.

He turns 40 next year.  His next ML plate appearance will be over 18 months after his last one.

It goes beyond rational logic to believe he has much, if anything, left in his tank to be an effective ML player.

I guess we'll see but it doesn't hurt to try and find out.

If his performance approaches replacement level value, and he's taking a roster or lineup spot away from somebody who can produce above replacement level, then it DOES in fact hurt to try and find out.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/29/2014 12:22:00 PM (view original):
If his performance approaches replacement level value, and he's taking a roster or lineup spot away from somebody who can produce above replacement level, then it DOES in fact hurt to try and find out.

100 OPS+ is league average. Even injured in his mid-late 30's he was 10-15% better than league average. I don't think it's a stretch to project that he'll be at least league average this year.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/29/2014 12:22:00 PM (view original):
If his performance approaches replacement level value, and he's taking a roster or lineup spot away from somebody who can produce above replacement level, then it DOES in fact hurt to try and find out.

You're assuming the Yanks can contend.   I don't expect that to happen.  So, if you're paying someone 20m, you may as well play them.   I expect A-Rod to be in the ballpark of replacement level. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 12:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 9/29/2014 12:22:00 PM (view original):
If his performance approaches replacement level value, and he's taking a roster or lineup spot away from somebody who can produce above replacement level, then it DOES in fact hurt to try and find out.

You're assuming the Yanks can contend.   I don't expect that to happen.  So, if you're paying someone 20m, you may as well play them.   I expect A-Rod to be in the ballpark of replacement level. 

In your opinion, what would his "replacement level" line look like?

Because replacement level for a 2014 3B was around .260/.290/.360. I'd bet the over.

Sign Hanley. That will do wonders. Play ARod at third, expect the pitching staff to be healthier (how can they not) and see what happens. They can contend. Pineda for a full season could make for a great 1-2 with Tanaka.

A-Rod is rested now.  I think he's got one 28-30 homer season left in him.  Maybe a triple slash line around .260/.340/.460 or something like that.  It's not great, but it's a lot better than replacement level.

Signing Ramirez isn't going to solve the problems the Yankees have.   A-Rod has 181 plate appearances in the last 24 months and he produced a 244/348/423 line.  His SLG in 2012 was .430.   He wasn't "tired" so rest wasn't the problem.   He has a hip issue and that's pretty important in hitting.    Expecting a .800 OPS from him is laughable.  He is also off PED(one would think).

Truth is, I think he'd retire if he wasn't A-Rod.   My guess is, at some point in the next 3 seasons, he'll be examined and declared unfit to play.  He'll get his money.  And insurance, not the Yankees, will pay it. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 1:49:00 PM (view original):
Truth is, I think he'd retire if he wasn't A-Rod.   My guess is, at some point in the next 3 seasons, he'll be examined and declared unfit to play.  He'll get his money.  And insurance, not the Yankees, will pay it. 

With another $61 million due (plus $6 when he gets to 660), hardly any player would walk away. Especially if he's still capable of being an above average hitter.

Hell, we've got a pretty good example of a RH 40 y/o who came off missing a year and playing in Yankee Stadium staring at us.   And none of his stats were PED-tainted(as far as we know).

Thinking A-Rod is going to return to 2011-2012 numbers is silly.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:01:00 PM (view original):
Hell, we've got a pretty good example of a RH 40 y/o who came off missing a year and playing in Yankee Stadium staring at us.   And none of his stats were PED-tainted(as far as we know).

Thinking A-Rod is going to return to 2011-2012 numbers is silly.

Yeah, but Arod has always been a lot better than Jeter.

I think 2012 numbers are a reasonable projection, now that he isn't playing through an injury.