Chipper  287/377/455  124 ops+    Career 303/401/529   141+
Boggs  280/348/400  94+   328/415/443  131+    Boggs also played at 41 and produced similar numbers
Ripken  239/276/361  70+   276/340/447    112+
Jeter  255/303/312  75+   310/377/440   115+

Is there any reason to think a PED-less A-Rod will be Chipper as opposed to the other 3?

Posted by bad_luck on 9/29/2014 2:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:01:00 PM (view original):
Hell, we've got a pretty good example of a RH 40 y/o who came off missing a year and playing in Yankee Stadium staring at us.   And none of his stats were PED-tainted(as far as we know).

Thinking A-Rod is going to return to 2011-2012 numbers is silly.

Yeah, but Arod has always been a lot better than Jeter.

I think 2012 numbers are a reasonable projection, now that he isn't playing through an injury.

You're delusional.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:26:00 PM (view original):
Chipper  287/377/455  124 ops+    Career 303/401/529   141+
Boggs  280/348/400  94+   328/415/443  131+    Boggs also played at 41 and produced similar numbers
Ripken  239/276/361  70+   276/340/447    112+
Jeter  255/303/312  75+   310/377/440   115+

Is there any reason to think a PED-less A-Rod will be Chipper as opposed to the other 3?

Yes, there is.

Slugging % (since power usually leaves before walk rates) and OPS+ prior to age 40 season:

Arod:    .558 143
Jones:  .533 141
Boggs: .447 134
Jeter:   .446 117
Ripken .451 114

Arod and Jones are/were fundamentally different offensive players than the other three.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/29/2014 2:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/29/2014 2:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:01:00 PM (view original):
Hell, we've got a pretty good example of a RH 40 y/o who came off missing a year and playing in Yankee Stadium staring at us.   And none of his stats were PED-tainted(as far as we know).

Thinking A-Rod is going to return to 2011-2012 numbers is silly.

Yeah, but Arod has always been a lot better than Jeter.

I think 2012 numbers are a reasonable projection, now that he isn't playing through an injury.

You're delusional.

The wonderful thing about baseball is that we will get to find out.

It's almost like you guys are rooting for Arod to be bad, which is weird. A decent season from him would be a huge boost to the 2015 Yankees.

LOL.   I don't think it matters that A-Rod has produced better numbs than Jeter.   We're not comparing what a 40 y/o Jeter can produce to a 40 y/o A-Rod.    We're estimating what a 40 y/o A-Rod, without PED, can do.      Judging from the careers of other 40 y/o players, he's going to decline.   A lot. 

At least understand the argument before you say something stupid.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:40:00 PM (view original):
LOL.   I don't think it matters that A-Rod has produced better numbs than Jeter.   We're not comparing what a 40 y/o Jeter can produce to a 40 y/o A-Rod.    We're estimating what a 40 y/o A-Rod, without PED, can do.      Judging from the careers of other 40 y/o players, he's going to decline.   A lot. 

At least understand the argument before you say something stupid.

You're working under the assumption that Arod can't produce without PEDs. I don't know that to be true.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:40:00 PM (view original):
LOL.   I don't think it matters that A-Rod has produced better numbs than Jeter.   We're not comparing what a 40 y/o Jeter can produce to a 40 y/o A-Rod.    We're estimating what a 40 y/o A-Rod, without PED, can do.      Judging from the careers of other 40 y/o players, he's going to decline.   A lot. 

At least understand the argument before you say something stupid.

Also, who are you talking to?

Jeter and Boggs are entirely different in terms of hitting style, so the comparison isn't good.  Ripken and Chipper are both better; Ripken is a better comp than Chipper.  Chipper walked a lot, had a great eye, so that helped him to age gracefully.  I wouldn't expect A-Rod to look as good as he did.  But A-Rod is also just straight-up better than anybody on that list.  Career OPS+ of 143.

And in spite of your denial of it, at his age you're always somewhat tired as a professional athlete.  The day-in, day-out grind is definitely wearing on a guy in his mid-30s or older.  He will come out next season as fresh as he's been in years.  By mid-season it won't matter anymore, but if he starts hot it's a confidence-builder.  It's easier to hit when you're loose and confidence, you know that.  So yes, I think starting out feeling really healthy and strong is potentially very important.

Note that I never said I expect A-Rod to finish out his contract strong.  I said I think he has one more 28-30 homer year left in him.  And I do.

Chipper lands on Arod's comparable list at number 6. After guys like Mays, Ott, & Griffey Jr.

Jeter is on Ripken's list at #8 and none of them show up on Boggs' list.

You're looking at numbers when A-Rod was juicing.    His career OPS+ is inflated by PED.   Father Time wins when you're not getting "extra" help.  And surely A-Rod will not be using banned substances.

As you said, by mid-season, his "freshness" is gone.   If you're expecting him to come out guns blazing, OK.  But I think there's some rust to be knocked off and you only get used to live pitching by actually facing it.

I'd like to see A-Rod in the .800 OPS range.   I just think .720 is more likely.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 2:55:00 PM (view original):
You're looking at numbers when A-Rod was juicing.    His career OPS+ is inflated by PED.   Father Time wins when you're not getting "extra" help.  And surely A-Rod will not be using banned substances.

As you said, by mid-season, his "freshness" is gone.   If you're expecting him to come out guns blazing, OK.  But I think there's some rust to be knocked off and you only get used to live pitching by actually facing it.

I'd like to see A-Rod in the .800 OPS range.   I just think .720 is more likely.

And you're assuming the PEDs made a bug difference.

I think high .700's is reasonable.

OPS for A-Rod over the last 7 years:
965
933
847
823
783
771
000

Looks like a steady decline.   On PED.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/29/2014 3:13:00 PM (view original):
OPS for A-Rod over the last 7 years:
965
933
847
823
783
771
000

Looks like a steady decline.   On PED.

Which seasons can you say for sure he was using PEDs? And which of those seasons was he playing through an injury?

Ideally, he would take a buy out from the Yankees for the remaining 3 years....say 30 million of the 60+ he is owed.  That said, he won't do it because he is greedy and apparently wants to end his career batting .250 with 18 homers and 140 strikeouts per season.  Sad.