Posted by bad_luck on 11/26/2012 2:22:00 PM (view original):
Posted by moy23 on 11/23/2012 7:47:00 AM (view original):David Frum, a conservative, writing this:
Posted by bad_luck on 11/22/2012 10:34:00 PM (view original):You spend your money then. I will save mine. I don't see the near future as rosy as you do.
The Greeks don't control their currency.
I see a congress at war with each other rather than working together... I don't see that changing. I see a president unconcerned about reeling in spending and that's not changing either. I see a debt bubble forming.... and if uncontrolled I see it bursting. if it bursts I don't care who controls their own currency and who doesn't.... there will be astronomical unemployment, riots, and a tax squeeze. it doesn't help that the market is hinging on the eurozone debt crisis either. like Lehman brothers but on a larger scale.... when one country goes down many will follow. maybe I'm wrong. maybe I'm not.... but chance favors the prepared mind. I'm preparing for the worst, will be happy if everything is rainbows and unicorns.
"But the indicators are suggesting that by 2013 and 2014, the Obama record will begin to look a lot better, assuming, that is, that the two parties in Washington don't recklessly push the country off the fiscal cliff at the end of the year.
The nation's economy added 171,000 jobs in October 2012, for a total of almost 700,000 in the four months before Election Day. More than half the jobs lost in the crash of 2008-2009 have now been recovered, even as public-sector employment has shrunk by a net 500,000.
[T]wo things will happen in politics:
1) President Obama will begin to claim more credit. In 2012, the word "stimulus" went unmentioned by Democrats. It was Republicans who tried to make political use of the $800 billion spent on job creation in 2009-2011. In 2013-2014, however, the shoe may suddenly rematerialize on the other foot.
2) Republicans will discover that their old "Obama isn't working" theme has become obsolete. By 2014, again assuming that Congress does not leap off the fiscal cliff, it will likely look as if Obama is working. What then? If negative messaging failed in 2012, it will fail bigger in 2014.
For too long, the Republicans have predicted apocalypse, debt crisis, the loss of freedom, the overthrow of the constitution. As the economy improves, that doom-saying will seem even more out of touch than ever."
I'm not disagreeing with any of that.... there are some positives since we've more than likely bottomed out such as manufacturing jobs and housing sales data the last 5 or so months. A lot of data will be manipulated for political use but the fact remains these are challenging times for most people right now. The main problem imo is still 25 million people out of work which won't change much in 4 more years... especially as unemployment benefits expire..... also millions of squatters the banks haven't kicked out of their homes yet which could lead to further depression of home prices when they do. This is not the first time the us has had a financial panic.... there have been many in the past that we can learn from.... and then one can look to japan, a country that lost 2 decades from a similar financial meltdown.
Look I hope everything works ... the faster the better.... and like I said I'm bullish the market... just not right now. There is too much uncertainty out there (fiscal cliff, eurozone, debt ceiling, to name the big ones) that I'm not willing to go all in at this point. Spending money on wants seems foolish to me when this economy is so weak. I've lived off credit cards before and from paycheck to paycheck.... I never want to go there again. I can't really.... I have a family to provide for and their wellbeing is my priority.
11/27/2012 11:55 PM (edited)