Posted by tedwmoore on 11/29/2012 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, 321 IP for Reed and 189 for McAnaney is getting to be a large enough sample size. Relievers will have ERAs that vary, but these two will rarely be dominant, though either one or both might sustain a hot stretch over a 65-inning season. Pitch calling and overall defensive ability behind them will have an effect, but not knowing what the defensive situation has been for them it is difficult to predict any future improvement based on a defensive overhaul.
Reed: fringe-low vR split (70), extreme flyball tendency (34 gb/fb) and the lack of a dominant second pitch (70). Change any one of those and Reed probably improves, but the combination is not good.
McAnaney: lack of a dominant pitch. Good splits help, as does the 66 GB/FB, but a repertoire rated 73, 63, 44 is going to get exploited. If his splits were elite he would improve, but with those pitch ratings elite here means 85+ in both vR and vL, maybe even higher. Again, pitch calling can help, and I definitely recommend using a stud defensive catcher for late inning duty anyway...
All things equal, McAnaney's splits and GB/FB should make him the better pitcher despite his poor pitch ratings, and so far their career have shown that, though the edge is slight.
I agree with this assessment and would like to add a few thoughts of my own. Both pitchers are lefties and will probably face more RH batters than LH. Reed is not only a flyball pitcher, but has a high velocity. At home in Baltimore and on the road in other HR friendly parks, he has a good chance of surrendering an uncomfortable amount of round-trippers. That spells potential disaster every time he takes the mound.
McAnaney has better splits and lower control than Reed. He also has a high velocity and is a fringe groundball pitcher with 3 pitches that leave a lot to be desired. LIke Reed, he will cough up HR's in critical situations and will raise your blood pressure.
I'll also introduce a purely speculative thought here as well. Regarding Temper, the FAQ states, "In HBD, A player with a higher rating has more of a bad temper or is considered a "hothead." This will effect how often he argues with the umpire or tries to hit a batter." Whether or not there's much truth to that statement, I've always theorized that high temper pitchers come unglued more often than their counterparts. Your two pitchers have enough "flaws" that hinder them already, but if there's any connection between temper and relief pitchers, it just got worse for those guys.
If it were me and I didn't have better options in the minors, I would go ahead and try them both out as lefty specialists with a high pull rating. I'd also set their availability to "ANY". Either way, I hope they start doing better for you!