How each possession is determined.... Topic

On the baseball side of the game they released how each at bat is determined  a few summers ago.  It was a rather lengthy power point with lots of cool information.  We refer to it over there as the "event tree".   It's more or less how (and in what order) events occur.  

If the game was designed by the same people (and I think it was) it would make sense that basketball has a "possesion" event tree.  I took a stab at trying to put one together.  It's a touch confusing (because I ain't that bright) but maybe we can generate some discussion on how and why things happen in the game.

Based on my knowledge of the baseball game and assuming the logic is similar I think the SIM Engine works something like this:
 
  • Offense has the ball- 
1. Does the offense shoot the ball?
?   I believe you either get a turnover or shot attempt.
?   I imagine the calculation involves the Offense's BH, PASS, IQ and the Defense's ATH, SPD, DEF and IQ.  
?   I assume the PG's BH and PASS are weighed more heavily than other players.  I also believe players with high DISTRO are weighed more heavily than players with low DISTO.
?   If NO, ball goes to the Defense and event tree starts over for the other team.
?   IF YES, goes to step 2.
  • Who shoots the ball?
?   I believe there are two factors in this:
?   The players set disto (in relationship to the other offensive players on the floor)
?   The players defender (good defenders limit offensive players shoots)
Once a player is determined:
            Does he get a shot off?
                        If no:
                                          Is the shot blocked?
?   This is probably an opponent’s ATH, DEF and BLK vs the shooters ATH, LP, and/or PER.  This may be influenced by a double team.
Does the shooter turn the ball over?
 
                        If yes:
 
  •  Is it a three point shot?
?   This is a factor of the shooter +/- setting and the +/- setting of the defense.
If yes, go to DOES THE SHOT GO IN.
In no,
  • Is the shot an inside or outside shot
?   Inside shots are determined using LP, ATH, IQ(mainly) and SPD, BH (secondary)
?   Inside shots are opposed by ATH, DEF, BLK IQ(mainly) and SPD (secondary)
?   Outisde shots are determined by PER, SPD, BH, IQ (mainly) and ATH (secondary)
?   Outside shots are opposed by ATH, DEF, IQand SPD (mainly) and BLK (secondary)
Is the player fouled?
            Offenses's ATH, SPD, IQ and LP/PER vs Defenses's ATH, BLK or SPEED, IQ
           
Does the SHOT go in?
            Shooters offensive score vs defenders defensive score.   I think the shooter would get some sort of multiplier based on the teams passing rating.  The defense would get a “bonus” if the shooter was double teamed or the shooter was fouled.
 
If yes, start the equation over for the other team.
If no,
 
            Who gets the rebound?
                                    Offensive players IQ, REB and ATH vs DEF IQ,REB and ATH.   I believe there is a weighted calculation based on what position’s stats are used.  I don’t know if it works C vs C or  any player from team A vs any player from team B or if it is a team vs team calculation a and then there is a calculation to see which PLAYER gets the rebound after it is decided which team wins the rebound.  I would also assume the DEFENSE gets a bonus on this.
If the DEFENSE gets the rebound,  start equation over.
 
If the OFFENSE gets the rebound,
            Is there an attempt to tip in?
                                    Work on this (who gets tip in attempts?  Is it by position, athleticism, shooter?, see if there is  a pattern)
            If yes, GO BACK TO Does the SHOT GO IN.
            If no, GO BACK TO begining.
11/29/2012 1:55 PM
there was a thread not long ago on this subject, someone probably posted on it in the last couple weeks, and in there i posted a WIS write up (a shorter one, that i was able to find, i dont know where the longer one is) on how their sim engine works. its along the lines of what you are looking for. maybe ill try to dig it up later on for you...
11/29/2012 2:03 PM
awesome....I'll look for it, any idea what a searchable word is?
11/29/2012 2:08 PM
Don't know if we're thinking of the same thread, but there was something at some point (helpful, I know) that indicated the "block" was not a separate event.

That is, the "block" rating influences opponents' FG%, and then of missed shot, some % were identified as "blocks" - similar to how "assists" are (I think) distributed after-the-fact, so passing/BH can increase FG%, but the assists don't get marked as assists until afterwards. That makes more sense in my head, but I'm not wording it in a great fashion right now.
11/29/2012 2:30 PM
And you may want to change the thread title to How each possession is determined.... instead of  How each position is determined....
11/29/2012 2:32 PM
Posted by zbrent716 on 11/29/2012 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Don't know if we're thinking of the same thread, but there was something at some point (helpful, I know) that indicated the "block" was not a separate event.

That is, the "block" rating influences opponents' FG%, and then of missed shot, some % were identified as "blocks" - similar to how "assists" are (I think) distributed after-the-fact, so passing/BH can increase FG%, but the assists don't get marked as assists until afterwards. That makes more sense in my head, but I'm not wording it in a great fashion right now.
That makes sense.   You never get any extreme block stats, if it was a  "true" stat, someone would have figured out how to get a guy averaging 5 blocks a game (or 3) or something.   If it's just "x" percent of missed FG's are blocks, it keeps it fairly contstant.

It probably also simplifies the formula.


11/29/2012 2:43 PM (edited)
I mean, the percentage is determined by the blocking skillz of the guy doing the blocking, but I always just assumed blocks were determined after the fact...
11/29/2012 11:17 PM
Bump
2/11/2017 5:56 PM
Good post, thanks TJ
2/11/2017 8:57 PM
Where do fouls come in?
2/11/2017 8:59 PM
Getting in to one of your answers on another thread, TJ, regarding passing and possessions and how turnovers are determined. The play-by-play pinpoints a player when the ball is turned over on a bad pass. Presumably, the individual passing rating for the individual player is what determines the probability behind the event, not the overall passing of the players on the floor. If the event tree doesn't take number of passes into account in a possession, how does that calculation look, in your mind?
2/11/2017 9:30 PM
Posted by Benis on 2/11/2017 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Where do fouls come in?
Fouls come in early. The original decision is shot, turnover or foul.
2/11/2017 10:09 PM
Posted by pkoopman on 2/11/2017 9:30:00 PM (view original):
Getting in to one of your answers on another thread, TJ, regarding passing and possessions and how turnovers are determined. The play-by-play pinpoints a player when the ball is turned over on a bad pass. Presumably, the individual passing rating for the individual player is what determines the probability behind the event, not the overall passing of the players on the floor. If the event tree doesn't take number of passes into account in a possession, how does that calculation look, in your mind?
I think this is what happens....

The decision goes something like:

Do they cross 1/2 court?
If so, who "makes the play"?
Then, what happens, shot, turnover or foul?
Once the decision is made that it's a turnover, they type of turnover is window dressing, with the vocabulary based on rating (or not).
2/11/2017 10:12 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/11/2017 10:12:00 PM (view original):
Posted by pkoopman on 2/11/2017 9:30:00 PM (view original):
Getting in to one of your answers on another thread, TJ, regarding passing and possessions and how turnovers are determined. The play-by-play pinpoints a player when the ball is turned over on a bad pass. Presumably, the individual passing rating for the individual player is what determines the probability behind the event, not the overall passing of the players on the floor. If the event tree doesn't take number of passes into account in a possession, how does that calculation look, in your mind?
I think this is what happens....

The decision goes something like:

Do they cross 1/2 court?
If so, who "makes the play"?
Then, what happens, shot, turnover or foul?
Once the decision is made that it's a turnover, they type of turnover is window dressing, with the vocabulary based on rating (or not).
If I'm understanding you, doesn't that mean the turnover is influenced by team passing rather than individual? That the individual is assigned the turnover, in an aesthetic sense after the fact, but it wasn't determined by his having possession of the ball at any given time. I can't say you're wrong, and to my knowledge WIS has never disclosed exactly what passing influences and how (nor should they). But this would be a departure from how many have understood the game, and doesn't seem to line up with how I've observed it, in situations like moving passers around the lineup, double teaming poor passing scorers, etc.
2/11/2017 11:31 PM
What I think is:

Team passing (weighted by position) influences:

1. Prepossession turnovers
2. If a shot goes in

Individual passing influences:

1. If a player shoots or turns the ball over
2, The effect of a double team
2/11/2017 11:37 PM
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