Doing my annual midseason projection report...First number after the conference name is the number of teams currently projected 1-64 in the league. Second number is the additional number of teams in positions 65-96.
ASC - 4/0, Capital 0/2, Centennial 2/0, CUNY 0/0 (best team currently 108), CCIW 3/0, Coast 0/1, Commonwealth 2/2, Empire 1/2, Freedom 0/2, GNE 9/1, Heartland 4/0, Iowa 3/0, Little East 2/1, Michigan 2/1, Midwest 0/0 (best team currently 100), Minnesota 1/1, NESCAC 2/3, New Jersey 0/1, N. Atlantic 0/1, NCAC 2/2, Northwest 4/3, Ohio 0/3, ODAC 1/0, Penn 0/0 (best team currently 110), Skyline 3/0, So. Cal. 3/3, St. Louis 2/1, SUNY 0/0 (best team currently 99), University 5/1, Upstate 1/1, USA South 6/0, Wisconsin 2/0.
Just some things that jump out at me based off of this: 1. The GNE is clearly back after its “down” year of only 5 postseason teams a year ago. Eight of its nine NT teams are pretty well locked in already with projection values of < 27 (my team is probably going to slide to PIT fodder before all is done, but the other eight are solid...), 2. The Northwest is having its best season since I’ve been tracking with more than half its membership forecast to reach the postseason in some capacity...still work to be done though or else six of those seven could be playing in the PIT, because....3. The break line for “last at-large team in” could be higher than most years. Based on the data above, it already projects to be at 54, and that’s in an “ideal’ environment with no upsets. We all know how well that works out in conference tournament play. 4. Nearly half the national tournament field could come from just six conferences -- the ASC, GNE, Heartland, Northwest, University and USA South.