Potential vs Work Ethic Topic

i have experience on both sides of the fence.. Potential is often my deciding factor when looking at where I want a player to be and not where they are... however, I if a player doesnt have the greatest potential but is already better than my current starter then I then overlook potential.. two examples though of how inconsistant each of these played out..

scenerio one.. I recruited a TE with "worked hard to reach his potential" or the low potential grade.. player started 4 years and grew consistantly all 4 years.. in his favor, a 4.0 gpa and a WE of 48 to start out.. finished with a 100 WE and went from a 712 to an 836 in 4 years and was Guess rated #1 TE after starting out #6.

Same recruiting class I recruited and signed #4 overall OL.. same potential grade as above.. started all 4 years.. started out 718 and finished at 781, less than 16 per year growth compared to the TE.. GPA was 2.4.. dont know if that played a part or not..

1/27/2013 2:35 PM
Thanks for the info everyone!  Very good info and helps make sense of the confusion, for me anyway... 
1/28/2013 5:56 AM
I have long been in the "WE times Potential" (where I assign each potential level a certain number) camp. It works.

The X-Factor here, though, is that high WE tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. To rephrase, high WE begets high(er) WE much more rapidly. And higher WE means your "WE times Potential" number increases faster. Yeah, it makes for a moving target, but it's something to keep in mind if you're trying to break a close tie between two players. I haven't modeled it mathematically, so I just trust my gut. You'll form your own gut feelings on these things over time, if you pay close attention.

Also, don't overlook the "potential is a spectrum, not discreet values" point that has been made in this thread. I summarily reject the notion that there is any overlap of the potential levels - that is to say, a "high average" recruit's potential is NOT EVER higher than a "low above average" recruit's potential. However, there is substance to the notion that a "high average" recruit can *basically* grow at the same rate as a "low above average" recruit, all other things being equal.
1/28/2013 2:41 PM
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Potential vs Work Ethic Topic

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