ODL LXII Team Rosters & Commentary Topic

Bluegrass Blue Barons

Pos                     Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%           min. 
07-08 Chris Paul PG 26.5 51.4 36.7 52.4 2.3 9.8 40 4 0 3006
06-07 Dirk Nowitzki PF 29.5 51.2 41.4 52.9 5 24 12 1 1 2819
93-94 Reggie Miller SG 23.5 53.3 42.4 56.2 1.3 7.5 12 2 1 2638
71-72 Julius Keye PF 10.2 40.6 0 40.3 11 25 6.6 1 2 2497
85-86 Kevin McHale PF 22.5 56.9 0 57.4 7.9 16 8.1 1 3 2397
70-71 Tom Boerwinkle C 16.7 50.3 34.2 50.1 13 32 19 2 4 2370
06-07 Chris Duhon PG 15 45.6 35.7 49.9 1.3 8.5 21 2 0 1907
96-97 Dan Majerle SF 15.7 49.9 33.6 50.4 4.1 10 13 2 1 1264
90-91 Kurk Lee SF 15.2 28.3 20.4 28.9 2.5 9 15 2 0 265
09-10 Sean Williams PF 15.8 43.4 0 42.9 9.8 13 0.6 2 5 227
01-02 Nick Anderson SG 19.3 28.8 27 36.2 0.5 15 8.8 1 2 222
83-84 Lionel Hollins PG 16.5 38.8 0 38.1 1.8 8.9 30 2 0 216
                     total min.  19828

I'm not wanting to wade into discussions on standard deviation, sim history, etc.
but I sometimes understand the rhetoric from the last week or so .....

my lack of Credentials:
Lifelong basketball junkie (4th generation Kentuckian) -
strong knowledge of NBA, ABA, and college history
Masters in Education -
former investment rep w/ ed.Jones
undergrad in Business (econ ,finance, stats, calc. etc.)

Sim greenhorn- I have tons of exp. in roto. baseball, fantasy football, drafts,
and grew up on strat-o-matic - so I LOVE WIS site, but just getting my feet wet)

I enjoy reading the stats breakdown and theories on distribution of #'s necessary to succeed...
I've thoroughly digested much of the forums postings about usage, def%, reb% etc....

I thought I might forward my team for dissection -

3/30/2013 1:25 PM
Bluegras Barons team numbers:
I attempted to calc-

use% Tier / 48 = 14.37
ast% / 48= 84.4
dReb% / 48= 83.59
Def. per minute =66.4

RL eFG%= .550
3/30/2013 1:34 PM
smokey you are confused as to what metrics the SIM engine uses. It doesn't use the PER # at all from my understanding. I won't argue that looking at players with high PER # isn't a helpful practice because it helps to identify better players in terms of overall performance in RL. But the PER # is skewed because great role players like Horace Grant, Brent Barry, etc. will always have lower PER #s than much less efficient players that score more points. 

Here's my secret. I have used a free download from bballsports.com to evaluate players stats. It doesn't match up exactly with the SIM but is very useful. And you can create columns with your own stats and formulas if you want to. I like to run the program so that it sorts all of the players by what is called a new performance rating per minute and then limit the number of points per game to 12. That shows me the who the best role players are. I also have used this program to find out who the best low minute guys to fill out the rosters are. I used this program a few years ago to identify players like Arvydas Sabonis, Jameer Nelson, Roy Tarpley 7 MPG, and then used them on my NCIH $52 Million teams with great success. 

You can create your own performance rating number but it's all based on real stats and not manufactured one like are used in the SIM. In other words any players that played before the 1977-78 season don't have a new performance rating number because some of the items liked blocked shots, and steals weren't kept track of. Plus, after you save your own performance rating  formula you can simply run the sort with any limiters that you want without having to put in all of the numbers into the formula each time like we do with the SIM engine sort. But the program hasn't been updated since 2010.

You have to download the Super DB program and then go from there. It also includes Baseball, Football and I believe Hockey stats too. This program is designed by Bob Chaiken who has done statistical analysis in the past for the Miami Heat. 

Anyway that's one of my secret stat analysis programs that's out there that may be helpful in some ways. But none of these programs duplicate what we are dealing with in this SIM engine. So don't put too much value into stats like PER #s etc. because they don't relate or translate very well to the NBA SIM.

3/30/2013 1:54 PM
seems like a waste to take mchale in the 2nd if youre not gonna use his 86-87 season....i think dirk is totally underrated here and was def a steal but i just didnt like him for this team...i feel like you were better off going with a cp3/miller/mchale big 3 and building around them....keye was a great pick for the odl...i like everything he does for that super cheap price.....with cp3 running the show and 3 really good scorers the offense should be awesome...great ast% too which should make the offense even better...the problem is gonna be on the boards...thats another reason i didnt like the dirk pick...its tough to hold your own on the glass when you have both dirk and mchale...boerwinkle is a beast and keye out will help but overall i think youre gonna have problems there....defense isnt all that great either....imo 19828 mins is waaaay too much for the odl...i think you made one too many cost cutting moves

still think this is a solid squad and cp3 should have a monster year but the lack of boards may cost you a playoff spot

3/30/2013 1:56 PM
thing about dirk is it's awfully tough to stomach a PF with a Orb of 5 unless you somehow bracket him with Rodman and Moses
3/30/2013 2:09 PM
yea...i had the dirk/moses combo a few seasons ago and it was amazing...won 50 games and lost in a tough 7 game series to ash's championship team
3/30/2013 2:26 PM (edited)
As I stated on the league message board, smokey57, PER is a derived stat, like PPG, APG, or RPG, it's not an advanced stat that determines performance, rather it is a byproduct of that performance.
3/30/2013 2:52 PM
cmafeeky: I used Boe last time, efg was around 52 and had around 11 boards a game, great player for this league as long as you are not too weak on D.

My advice on your team: consider re-tooling your last five guys. I would drop Thunder Dan and use that money to get three better bench guys, your bottom four guys will hurt you, even in thier limited minutes, guys with an efg under 45 better do something else that is a HUGE help to your team, I don't see any of that from this group of four. In this league you end up using almost all of the minutes you draft, avoiding negative minutes is very important. Drafting guys you just eat minutes is fine, but they should not be guys that will hurt your team. At least IMO that's an important concept here.
3/30/2013 2:59 PM
Thanks for the info about PER guys. That sounds like a cool program van. I use the PER to determine the guality of a player. The PER stat is obviously important when effeciency is a key factor in team building. Thanks again
3/30/2013 4:14 PM
So would it be correct to say PER is like Usage%, it's a qualitative stat, not a quantitative stat. I did see an owner once in the league forum ask why SIM used PER in matchup determinations. I could see the SIM using PER for reasons of economy, instead of comparing all the factors that comprise the PER# it would only need to use the PER#. Even if the SIM uses the individual stats that make up the PER in a matchup how does that differ from just using the PER value. I sent a ticket asking if SIM used PER in matchup determinations in specific. I'll pass on the answer.
3/30/2013 4:42 PM
sim doesnt use PER in matchup computations or any other way -  it uses SOME but not all of the stats that comprise PER as individual factors of significance bearing dependent on whatever phase the game is in at the moment - so if a rebound is in question those, if a shot is being take those etc

and usage is a defined stat that has direct bearing on the outcome of each possession determining weighting of multiple factors so is not at all like PER in terms of the way it impacts the sim engine
3/30/2013 4:46 PM (edited)
I'm grinning like a Chesshire cat, I showed everyone my first five players def ratings, 100,84,80,80 & 50, which is pretty strong def. My bench def is 100,100,88,83,74. No rest for the wicked!  "Just say No to Everything"  lol  ;-))
3/30/2013 7:49 PM
Am I the only owner the thinks, Dr J & Lanier are a powerful pairing? Especially when Julius is brought @ SG. If so I'm curious as to why. Comments...??
3/30/2013 7:59 PM
scoring-wise....just average...much better 1-2 punches on other teams....but they both have nice all-around games...lanier is pretty far down the list in terms of great big men in this league though...so no...i wouldnt call them powerful
3/30/2013 8:04 PM
I've always liked Lanier (I mean going back to the way back days) and he's seen his stock come back a little bit, he used to be the boss and then for the longest time he's been nobody's idea of a good idea but the season with tthe 84 d is pretty decent now

that said the efg is just ok, and the 8 orbd is kind of weak for a big - I'd kind of like him as a 3rd option next to a big offensive rebounder but as a 1-2 punch guy... I just dont know
3/30/2013 8:50 PM
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