D3, Season 65 Topic

The last paragraph about what you learned is really golden. I've tried doing some analysis (with much smaller data sets and probably much simpler than what you've done) and those sort of insights are the reason I do it. Thanks for sharing.
4/30/2013 11:09 PM
Just thought I would throw this out there for those still watching at home....

Millsaps beat Penn St. Altoona this season (at Millsaps).

Millsaps beat Emory 3 times this year.

Millsaps beat Sewanee 3 times this year.

Needless to say, I am not comfortable at all with this set up.  Feels like my luck with run out just when I need it most!

Good luck to everyone left.  It's been an unbelievable year for the UAA with getting 3 teams in the final four.  This is the second year in a row that the UAA has won the conference RPI crown. 

Regarding the final four:
I think Penn St. Altoona has a great chance to win it all...

Objectively I think it will be Millsaps vs. Penn St. Altoona in the final.  That said, I have great respect for Sewanee and Emory and anything can happen in this game - by no means are the #1 seeds overwhelming favorites in either game.
5/1/2013 10:13 AM
Great stuff Bullman.  I agree that IQs are (probably the biggest factor) left out.  Surprising conclusions on passing.  I would be interested to know how you came to it.  The Buena Vista / Sewanee game is an interesting one regarding passing.  Southwestern's press, which forced 20 TO's/game this season, only caused Sewanee, who has the second lowest team passing ratings in their conference, to turn the ball over 13 times (granted, they did play slow down) and allowed them to shoot over 50% from the field.  Just an anomalous performace?  Seems like I see that happen a lot.
5/1/2013 11:55 AM
I don't want to overstate the importance of passing in my rating system -- it is one of the top priorities at only the guard positions.  It is a minor factor for other positions, but it is something that I factor in at all positions (I will probably use it as kind of a tie breaker between players when I recruit at the post).  I just thought that it was interesting because in my analysis it had more of an effect than I had thought that it would (I was pretty much ignoring that attribute altogether in my post players before this).  

In regards to how I came to that conclusion, some attributes like BH, PER, and LP only had a significant correlation with actual performance when factoring in the top 3 ratings for the attribute on the roster.  For Passing there was a correlation with the top 3, but also a smaller one with the passing ratings for the entire roster.
5/1/2013 12:44 PM (edited)
I'm amazed at the mathematical acumen of some of the users on this site. I feel like this is a Moneyball vs old-school scouting moment here...and that I may get left behind. Wow.     
5/1/2013 1:27 PM
LOL.  All you have to do is look at my performance and you will see that there is nothing to worry about.
5/1/2013 3:51 PM
From the "old school" (in other words I have nothing factual to back it up), I have come to my own conclusion that BH is more important against the press than passing. And passing is more important against the zone, and the're equally important against man-2-man. Just my own simpleton observation. 
5/1/2013 5:10 PM
Congrats to the 2 teams who have been on top all season!  Rare that the best teams dodge all the upset attempts thrown their way.  Good luck to both of you tonight!  Should be one for the ages.  Both teams run Motion/Press.  Millsaps is a classic press with great speed and BH/P.  Altoona's focus is obviously insane ath and def.  They've also got a big rebounding edge, but Millsaps has far superior perimeter scoring.  My prediction: overtime classic!
5/2/2013 12:02 PM
Great win by Penn St. Altoona.  Defense trumped my strong perimeter focused guards.  I felt like it would be a hard game to win, but thought I had a great chance based on my recenty success.  PSA is so well-rounded and has virtually no weaknesses - a very deserving champ. 

I'll try to work on the dynasty rankings, which I am sure will have Penn St. Altoona comfortably on top.

Like I say to all the champs -- I think coach frankgrimes is ready for D1 or D2... hint, hint
5/3/2013 8:27 AM
Congrats to both team, PSA is really on a run right now.
5/3/2013 3:22 PM
Ready to start at Gordon! We are going to be very bad this year, but hopefully in a couple of years we'll be better.
5/4/2013 10:02 AM
Welcome to rupp jlrunruh --- if you have questions just shout

5/4/2013 3:56 PM
Thank you. Best of luck to Millsaps. I am counting down the days until we start. My team is great other than having 4 starters leaving, and no defense whatsoever. I hope to be at .500 this year, keep my prestige the same, and improve my sos, although I don't know what to expect.

I hope everyone has a great time!
5/5/2013 4:44 PM
Who will win the hoops dynasty season 66 in rupp?

Votes: 8
(Last vote received: 5/9/2013 7:58 PM)
5/5/2013 4:56 PM
I just put in Gordon and voted for Gordon because Gordon is my team.
Like Gordon is going to win.
5/5/2013 4:59 PM
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D3, Season 65 Topic

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