Is the Fatigue Code Broken in the Sim? Topic

Just because I found this thread so interesting, I'll toss out a theme idea for frazzman or anyone else (not me!) who really wants to test the effectiveness of players in the 90-95% range. Require every owner to enter two identical teams. The teams have 8 starters with around 600 PA each, and some mediocre bench players who will serve the purpose of "player rest" replacements on one team, but will ride the bench all season on the other team. For one team, strictly enforce autorest at 99% for those main 8 starters. For the other team, set autorest to 90 (or whatever the commish chooses) for those 8 starters. Which set of teams will do better?
6/8/2016 2:38 AM
Posted by dannyjoe on 6/8/2016 2:20:00 AM (view original):
I somehow got a kick out of reading through this thread for the first time, but really don't see a problem with how players perform when fatigued. The Gladden example above looks bad, but a sample size of one player-season isn't enough to draw any solid conclusion. In my current league, 1979 Alfredo Griffin (a .287 real-life hitter) is batting .381 after 88 games. Odds are he'll be under .350 by the end of the season, without ever playing a game fatigued.

The arguments that a player at 98% or 99% effectiveness should be much worse than a player at 100% effectiveness just don't make sense from a mathematical standpoint. If you want to argue that the percentage effectiveness should drop more rapidly (e.g. 11% overuse = 99% effectiveness, 12% overuse = 95% effectiveness, 13% overuse = 85% effectiveness, or something like that), that would be a more logical argument. But I do think the current system is basically okay in this regard.

As a manager, I like having the option of deciding my team would be better with a slightly tired Tim Raines playing every day than with a fully rested Herm Winningham giving him a break. "What If" Raines had played every day like Ripken did? As manager, I get to decide that. But I also like having the option of deciding that my team will be better off if ole Herm plays a few games and Raines is at full strength when he does play (and in the playoffs).

The 10% "buffer" in PA before fatigue kicks in is perfectly reasonable in WIS. In my experience, teams get more PA in WIS than in real-life. The MLB record for single-season PA is 778 (Jimmy Rollins, 2007). The progressive I checked just now has had 13 players exceed that value in 9 seasons, with the record in this prog being 830 PA.

I agree with others in this thread that player salaries penalize guys with a lot of real-life PA (or IP). After about 700 PA, having more PA should not affect salary. But ideally, shouldn't fatigued be based on innings instead of PA? A pinch hitter or pinch runner could count as one inning played, and otherwise WIS does keep innings played in the fielding stats (even for DH). A player is more worn out after getting 4 PA in an extra-inning game than he is after getting 6 PA in a slugfest. Actually, the guys who lose a game 24-0 and have to chase 20-something hits around the ballpark are probably more tired than the guys on the winning team who had 6 PA apiece.

For pitchers, shouldn't WIS base the fatigue on batters faced instead of pitch count? I don't know exactly how it works, but I've always gotten the impression WIS charges a guy like Nolan Ryan with a lot of pitches in the sim since he has some many SO and BB, but does not properly account for the fact that his real-life IP included a lot of SO and BB.
"If you want to argue that the percentage effectiveness should drop more rapidly (e.g. 11% overuse = 99% effectiveness, 12% overuse = 95% effectiveness, 13% overuse = 85% effectiveness, or something like that), that would be a more logical argument."

I could get behind that as a possible solution - keep the fatigue effects on the back end of the code the same, but have players more rapidly decline in percentage once they get past the 10% bonus. I also understand that my Gladden example is 1 player and could just be a fluke, but in my experience (and I've been playing for a while - heck this thread is 3 years old) is that the effects of fatigue are so negligible on performance that it really isn't a penalty to play players in the blue...even down below 80% (though 80% seems to be a threshold with pitching).
6/8/2016 2:53 PM
Gladden finished the season at 67%.

His last 10 games he was between 69% and 67%
Last 10 Games -- 42 6 17 3 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 2/6 .405 .405 .476 --

Full Season Stats - he got 574 PAs total (real life 384 PAs)

Hitting - He was 9th in the league in batting average, 12th in OBP and 17th in OPS.
Name SN G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS STRK L STRK
Gladden, Dan 1984 139 515 81 171 29 2 6 79 51 63 6 33 30 .332 .397 .431 .828 10 17

Fielding
Name SN Pos GP GS + - Inn PO A E DP Fld% RF
Gladden, Dan 1984 CF 119 116 1 2 1,033.0 288 6 14 0 .955 2.561

Seriously, this can't be acceptable. You can't pay for 384 PAs and get 574 PAs at the end of the season AND get 9th in the league for batting average, 12th in the league for OBP and 17th in the league for OPS. There is something wrong with the fatigue formula!
6/9/2016 1:00 PM
Last update from admin was back in June...

"And this information you provided will help us be able to look into that issue.

Thanks again."
9/21/2016 12:28 PM
Thanks for digging this up frazzman, so has there been an update at all on this? Like I said in the thread I started, I really don't see any difference on hitting stats whether I play a guy at 100 or 90%, but I am starting to have doubts about their defensive stats.
9/21/2016 12:48 PM
Posted by Funksteady1 on 9/21/2016 12:48:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for digging this up frazzman, so has there been an update at all on this? Like I said in the thread I started, I really don't see any difference on hitting stats whether I play a guy at 100 or 90%, but I am starting to have doubts about their defensive stats.
I have not received any update on my ticket to admin. As for my take on fatigue, defense will degrade fastest (but not truly noticeable until under 93%), hitting degrades slowly and not truly noticeable until in the 80s (maybe even the low 80s) and pitching is similar with the true studs (sub 1.00 WHIP and great normalized stats) not showing degradation until the mid-80s and lesser pitchers below 93%, with BBs, HRs and a loss of Ks being the primary signs.

That said, I try to keep my guys at 100% at all times still unless I need to push for the playoffs. Then I feel comfortable going with fatigued guys as typically my bench players/Long B bullpen types are not nearly as strong as the starters.
9/21/2016 12:55 PM (edited)
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Is the Fatigue Code Broken in the Sim? Topic

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