ike, fair point re: more guys staying local than I'd probably realized.
But I think if you look at MN's hoops history from, say, Kevin McHale until now, the only time they've been good is when they cheated their balls off. (And even that was only one really good season.)
The other thing about kids staying home is that MN has terrible facilities, which isn't the be-all, end-all, but when competitors have beautiful, new facilities, it's a huge downgrade in the minds of a lot of kids.