Effective overall ratings are off by what? 22? Before you even look at how those ratings break down, that seems like reasonable upset territory. Looking at starters, yours have an edge in ATH and DEF, but his aren't just horrendous. PER is pretty similar, you have better LP but not by a ridiculous amount, you probably have a slight edge in REB, and he has a meaningful speed advantage and destroys you in ball control. If he were running the press, I might've predicted an upset. With a zone, I'd have given you the edge, but an upset is not totally unreasonable.