Before I breakdown the West I wanted to list a few observations I made between the two conferences. You can take this prediction to the bank: the will be a LOT more points scored in the East than the West. The East has a conference efg (per team ave, all teams weighed equally) of 54.79 while the West is at 53.26, the D in the East is FAR weaker though as the ave is 67.91 with only three teams over 70 and the West is 74.12 with only two teams UNDER 70 and two over 80! Rebounding is a little better in the West with %’s of 38.48orb and 90.49 dreb compared to 36.23 and 88.69 in the East. Of course ast% in the West is higher (largely because logain has the ast% of two teams combined) with the West having a 73.66 to 68.88 ast% advantage. The foul rate in the West is slightly higher at 8.02 to 7.90 but the draw rate is much lower at 10.83 to 11.30, meaning the ratio in the West at 1.35 is lower than the East’s 1.43. There are fewer possessions in the West (but remember two East teams have possession/g numbers that will never be reached) of 118.72 to 120.75, and turnovers in the West are higher at 14.18% to 13.54%.
This division is a real piece of work and there is only one team that I consider a LOCK for the playoffs. I could even see a situation where this division only gets the one playoff team because relative to the other divisions this one has a number of teams with serious issues. However, I will say this for logain, you did your homework man. Logain created the perfect division other than the Mikee team (which he pretty much got stuck with) in which to try his crazy ast% strategy.
1. King Kong D, Mikee1. IMO a hands down frontrunner in this division. Wilt of course brings a huge advantage in numerous areas, but Mikee did a solid job with the rest of this team as well. Has an efg of 53 which is middle of the pack in the division, but could be higher if he can squeeze some extra shots out of Wilt. D of 77.15 is 2nd in the division, oreb of 40.65 and dreb of 97.51 are completely dominant in this division. Ast% of 78.89 is 2nd only to logain team, tov% of 13.72 would be near the bottom in any other division, but is actually the LOWEST in the MW. We all know Wilt gives you close to 48mpg of not fouling, which is reflective in Mikee’s league low 6.93 foul rate, his 11.59 draw rate is 2nd in the division as is his 1.67:1 ratio. With his schedule Mikee is an odds on favorite to finish in the top-4 and draft his own division next time, but I don’t think we will see a team have what appears to be such an easy division draw again for quite some time.
2. So You're Telling Me There's a Chance!?, thomcat. I’ve giving this team the 2nd slot in the division because it is the best shooting team and has the best draw to foul ratio in the entire league at 1.74:1. Efg is 55.36 which would be 6th best in the Central but is tops in this division. D is solid 71.51 but below conference average, dreb of 79.73 is really weak but only two teams in the division crack 85 so this is still competitive and Mutumbo should flourish. Ast% over 70 at 71.01 should mean this team does lead the division in efg, low pf/rate of 7.29 and highest draw rate in entire conference at 12.69 means a significant FT advantage. However tov% of 15.48 is extremely high, but it is also high for the teams other than mikee’s in the division. The favorable schedule should mean squeeze this team into the playoffs, but logain could surprise and the Pacific could send five to the playoffs.
3. Living Loving Maid, logain. As I said before logain drafted a division where he can see if this gimmick will work. Ast% of over 140, yea 1-4-0! D would be great in East but below average in West at 72.34. High pf/rate for the league but not for the division at 8.66, adequate draw rate of 10.61 but low ratio of 1.23 means logain will lose the FT battle outside of the division. Rebounding numbers will get him worked over out of the division on the glass with dreb of only 80.57, and that 140+ ast% better mean a lot of made shots because his orb% of 28.13 is one of the lowest I have ever seen in this league. Did I mention that this team has a tov% of 17.71, far and away the highest in the league. Your team will be fun to watch logain, but if I had to make a bet I’ve got to go with your plan not working in this league.
4. The final three teams are really close together and I would be really surprised if any of them made a playoff push. I think they will all have losing records and likely be within 5 games or so of each other at the end. If forced to choose I’ll start with: Red Hot, coachcroft because it is the best shooting team of the bunch. Efg of 55.17, D of 73.55, orb% of 35.95, dreb% of 87.48, ast% f 71.24, so far not too bad but this team has a pf/rate of 8.69, and a tov% of 16.39. Draw rate is 10.47 for a ratio of 1.20:1, meaning this team will get crushed on turnovers and the FT battle out of the division.
5. Brave Dragons, seapilots. Efg of 53.35, D of 77.07, orb of 38.80, dreb of 84.30, ast of 68.15, tov of 13.91, foul rate of 8.30, draw rate of 10.81 for a 1.30 ratio. The D is strong but would fare much better in the East, the efg is average, the boards are low, the fouls and turnovers are high, like I said these bottom three are in many ways carbon copies of each other, not enough strengths and too many weaknesses in the key areas IMO to be very competitive.
6. What Was I Doing, steelers821. Lowest efg in the division at 52.39, D is great at 80.86 (2nd highest in league) but we had an 85D team not make the playoffs last time around. Orb of 38.21 is solid but dreb of 84.82 is low, ast of 68.71 are adequate, foul ratio is horrid with a draw rate of only 9.84 and a foul rate of 8.92 for a nightmare ratio of 1.10:1. Tov% is also high at 14.52, IMO great D just isn’t enough to make up for so many other weaknesses in critical areas.
5/26/2013 10:57 PM (edited)